DPG : presentation of a draft Joint Program Document

1. DPG : presentation of a draft Joint Program Document DPG, 5 September 2006

2. Outline • Brief overview of preliminary draft • MTEF projections & lead in to 07/08 cycle • Next steps, Work program for September

3. Joint program document: current status • Revised version of Part 2, joint analysis • Part 3 – first draft on agreed outline • Current part 3 draft – includes sections in ‘issues mode’ rather than final draft, especially where DPG/DP WG guidance needed • Focus for DPG discussion : • proposed DPG commitments • Sept work program for moving from issues to final draft

4. Joint drafting process • Part II: • 12 DPs (40+ people) in drafting team • DPG WGs worked on text • 2 rounds of editing • Still collecting comments - DPs and public hearing (DPG Website) • Part III: • 6 DPs in drafting team • Guided by Steering Group (10 DPs) - half a dozen meetings June-August • Document based on DP MTEF projections • DP MTEF issues group cracked numbers.... • GoT/DPG/CSO MTEF Workshop on 25 July • First draft presented at September DPG • DPG WGs to work on document during September • Agreement with GoT and CSO on consultation process

5. Part 3 outline • Intro, context, lessons learnt • Managing external finance • Issues for developing aid strategy: MTEF projections, scaling up, consistency with MKUKUTA,JAST • Response to MKUKUTA cluster strategies • M&E/Results matrix • Risk analysis • Other JAST issues

6. Managing external finance Institutional challenges of high levels of aid • Vision of DP role as catalyst for strengthening domestic accountability • Key role of sector reviews in realising this vision,balancing national planning and budget role, domestic accountability and monitoring/dialogue for DPs • Recognising the responsibilities of high aid dependence, DPs as integrated particpants in budget process

7. PRESENT Got passive recipient of individual agency projections One off DP input Exclusively bilateral FUTURE GoT actively assesses projections,leads dialogue Iterative, interactive DPG role in coordination quality review, facilitating adjustment Key changes in DP input to planning/budget cycle

8. Current work on draft part 3, MTEF Projections Finalise joint program document (Parts 2+3) Enhanced input to 07/08 Budget Guidelines/MTEF Agree with GoT improved process for future annual budget cycle Follow up for annual budget cycle

9. Post workshop issues • Scaling up : scenario analysis around alternative aid futures • Consistency with MKUKUTA – background work for follow up in revision of cluster text • Consistency with JAS: key indications one year ahead – number of projects increasing 25%, average project size falls by 20%, slight fall in % budget support

10. Cluster programs • Current text only an initial frame for detailed redrafting from DP working groups • Aim for one page cluster summaries, developed in parallel with results matrix • Primary focus: Cluster priorities,MKUKUTA alignment, financing strategy, development of dialogue/sector reviews

11. M&E, Results matrix • Linking DP inputs (MTEF projections) to MKUKUTA outcomes (MKUKUTA indicators) with intermediate results drawn in summary from MKUKUTA • Matrix in text includes indicators only at this stage • Draft versions with MTEF inputs and (tentative) worked example for education to follow • Need to define steps for completing the matrix, with guidance from DP working groups

12. Risk • Risk matrix distributed in July, several rounds of comment/discussion • Early decision that analysis focus on joint view of risk and mitigating measures • Views welcome on expanding the coverage to collective response

13. Other JAST issues • Joint program document is an opportunity to reflect joint commitment on other JAST objectives (some proposals in section 8) • Need to liaise with GoT on how this fits with work program for JAST working group

14. Total External Financing (actual+projections)

15. DPs MTEF Projections

16. Figure ?: Average Forecast Error (as a % of GDP)

17. Figure ?: Average Forecast Error (in percent)

18. Improving DP projections : some options • Individual agencies prepare comprehensive MTEF projections annually (commitments, pipeline + unallocated) • DPG takes more collective responsibility for quality of projections (ex ante), and realisation (ex post) • Reserve funds set aside to assure stable medium term flows(DP or GoT) • Recommendation : pursue all three approaches, option 1 to be included in next GoT MTEF call, PER macro group to work on detailed proposals on 2 and 3

19. Work program for sector working groups • Review sector MTEF projections – identify gaps, encourage WG members to improve coverage (commitment/pipeline) • Review Joint program doc: • Proposed drafting revisions for cluster text, covering: sector priorities, developments in external financing, status of sector review/policy dialogue institutions • Results matrix : review indicators (col 1), review DP inputs and summarise (col 3), insert summary of strategies/intermediate results (col 2) • comments on other sections

20. A proposal for work on the results matrix • DP working groups identify representatives for cluster level meetings next week • Half day meeting for each cluster, to discuss draft cluster matrix, propose draft for DP working group comment • WB can offer two specialists to (i) facilitate cluster meetings (ii) support DP working groups as required (iii) comment on drafts as required

21. Finalising the joint program doc • First draft with GoT, comments expected mid Sept, including views on any broader consultation process required • Similar for civil society • Still aiming for final draft end Sept/next DPG • DP views on facilitating HQ engagement/ comment/agreement on final draft ?