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Electoral Mobilization

Electoral Mobilization. Turnout has declined in U.S. Turnout Vocabulary. Normal Vote Deviations (from normal voting) Roll-off Split-ticketing Drop-off Party Strips Nonvoting. Institutional Constraints. Poll taxes Literacy tests Permanent vs. periodic registration Purging of nonvoting

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Electoral Mobilization

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  1. Electoral Mobilization Turnout has declined in U.S..

  2. Turnout Vocabulary • Normal Vote • Deviations (from normal voting) • Roll-off • Split-ticketing • Drop-off • Party Strips • Nonvoting

  3. Institutional Constraints • Poll taxes • Literacy tests • Permanent vs. periodic registration • Purging of nonvoting • Residency requirements • Closing dates for registering • Availability of registration facilities • Absentee registration • Mandatory voting . . .

  4. More Institutional Constraints • State initiated vs. individual initiated registration • Proportional representation vs. majority win within districts • Enfranchisement

  5. Social Constraints • Party competitiveness • Class cleavages and party organization • Age of electorate (for example, 1970) • Education • Economic Development (e.g., GNP)

  6. Party Organization • Turnout increases when parties align themselves toward clearly identifiable homogeneous groups, especially ethnic and religious. • In general, increased cleavage-party identification increases turnout. • Cleavage helps define electoral battle.

  7. Party Competition, Wealth • Increases in party competition increase turnout. • Increases in wealth increase turnout

  8. Congressional Voting • On-year / off-year cycle dominates. • Presidential election mobilizes many voters who would not normally vote in the off-year election. • These presidential-mobilized voters favor the party of the presidential winner. • The presidential winner has coattails.

  9. The Off-year Drop • In the off-year election, some voters who were mobilized in the presidential election do not vote. • These new nonvoters are mostly supportive of the presidential incumbents. • Thus, the presidential incumbent has reverse coattails in off-year elections.

  10. Variations in On-Year / Off-Year Pattern • The aggregate turnout hurts the incumbent president’s party if the economy is doing poorly. • People vote sociotropically, not according to their own pocketbook. • People blame their own poor economic state on idiosyncratic conditions, not politics in general.

  11. The Role of the Media • People get information on national problems from a media that makes the clear connection between national concerns and politics. • The media do not make connections to individuals. • People are rarely if ever exposed to information that states their personal connection to politics.

  12. The Candidates • Bad economic times and low presidential popularity can scare off good challenger candidates, encourage retirement of incumbents, and inhibit contributors from contributing. • This is a catch-22 situation. • This makes the on-year / off-year cycle worse.

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