Aviation AFD Guidance

1. Aviation AFD Guidance An Airline Perspective Southwest Aviation Safety Workshop Phoenix, AZ Ken Widelski Meteorologist NWS: Lubbock, TX

2. Agenda • Basis for the study • Contributors • Purpose for the Aviation AFD • Items that should be included in the AFD • Items that should not be included • AFD usage • Summary

3. Basis for the study • January 13th 2006: WFO Lubbock held a Local BLAST leadership meeting. • Guest Speaker: Rick Curtis • Southwest Airlines and the National Weather Service are a partnership • Our TAFS are used exclusively by flight dispatch for planning purposes • There is a need for a more effective communication method than the TAF alone

4. Contributors • A Collaborative effort developed between WFO Lubbock, San Angelo and eventually Austin/San Antonio. • The common thread was to gain external feedback on how to effectively communicate aviation concerns through the AFD. • Rick Curtis became the main contributor.

5. Purpose for the Aviation AFDAirline Perspective • Provides NWS Forecasters the opportunity to briefly identify weather related items which may affect the operations of an airport terminal. • The product should provide aviation users with a better understanding of expected weather conditions during the short term (critical TAF period). • Communication method should be non technical.

6. Items to Include in the AFD • The following items should be included only when situations warrant… 1)Precipitation -Type -Start and Stop Times -Special attention given to ice pellets, freezing rain, snowfall amounts and intensity

7. 2) Winds -Threat of strong winds -Wind shifts -Cross wind activity (familiarization with runways) 3) Thunderstorms -Coverage -Duration -Likelihood

8. 4) Frontal Passages -Timing -Cause 5) Low Ceiling and Fog Potential -Timing -Cause 6) Visibility Obstructions -Smoke -Blowing Dust -Volcanic Ash -Other

9. 7) Low Level Wind Shear Potential 8) Changes in Flight Condition -Example…VFR to IFR -Timing window to these changes *9) TAF Confidence -Items that may have been left out of the TAF, but considered.

10. TAF Confidence Example KSAT 061720Z 061818 13015KT P6SM SCT035 BKN150 FM0100 VRB05KTS P6SM SCT250 Aviation Discussion One or Two isolated thunderstorms will form along the sea breeze and may approach the KSST/KSAT TAF sites. However, the chance of the thunderstorms affecting even the vicinity area is less than 5%, so mention of them has been left out of the TAFS.

11. Items that Should not be Included • A regurgitation of the TAF TAF Example: KCRP 061720Z 061818 13007KT P6SM BKN008 FM0100 29020G30KTS P6SM SCT250 CorrespondingAviation Discussion IFR ceilings with light winds will persist at terminal KCRP Through 00z. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 20 to 30 KTS through the night.

12. Technical Jargon or lengthy descriptions of physical phenomena. • Model Comparisons • Long Range issues greater than 12 hours unless a “heads up” approach is taken for something very significant. Example…Major winter storm, Hurricane, ECT.

13. Usage • The Aviation section of the AFD will be used mostly by Dispatchers(occasionally Pilots) for the following reasons… 1) Provides a high level understanding of current weather for that area. Most dispatchers cover multiple geographic regions.

14. Provides a “heads up” for additional contingency fuel for things that may not be worthy to be included within the TAF itself. • Conveys a confidence level of the TAF itself. If there is a lot of “chance of this” and “chance of that” in the Aviation section of the AFD, it will communicate to the Dispatcher that there is a good chance for TAF amendments.

15. Summary • Aviation section of the AFD is the opportunity for the NWS forecaster to provide a concise summary of expected and potential weather events during the next 12 hours. • It is a chance to build on the TAF and to communicate specifics or reasoning behind the TAF. • A good Aviation AFD is one that is prepared with airport usages and minimums in mind.

16. Airports that are mainly used for general aviation should be handled differently than those with major airline activity. • Airport hub locations (or large airports) may be handled even differently due to the complexity of operations. • Forecasters should be familiar with airport minimums and operating criteria. These specifics do not need to be included in the AFD but should serve as a background to assist a forecaster for what is important at that particular airport terminal.

17. TAFS are what is used for operational planning decisions. • The Aviation AFD is a communication mechanism that can benefit both the forecaster and the dispatcher if used correctly. (Liason) • Forecasters can describe the details of what went into the TAF and the associated confidence level.

18. Dispatcher can benefit as it provides a background and various options that were looked at and either included or dismissed from the TAF • Forecaster insight and additional information compliments the TAF, makes it more effective and helps better manage expectations of the user.

19. Experimental AFD Pagehttp://aviationweather.gov/testbed/afd/

20. Thank you For Attending. Any Questions?