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Climate change and conflict Global response 2010, Copenhagen, 23 January 2010

Climate change and conflict Global response 2010, Copenhagen, 23 January 2010. Nils Petter Gleditsch Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW), International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) &

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Climate change and conflict Global response 2010, Copenhagen, 23 January 2010

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  1. Climate change and conflictGlobal response 2010, Copenhagen, 23 January 2010 Nils Petter Gleditsch Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW), International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) & Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim (NTNU) Past President, International Studies Association

  2. Armed conflict, 1946–2008 Wars, 1946–2008

  3. Battledeaths, 1900–2008 Battledeaths, 1946–2008 Battledeaths, 2001–2008

  4. Enter climate change:Are we heading towards disaster? • Darfur is the first of many climate wars (Jan Egeland and Ban Ki-Moon on various occasions in 2007–08) • Climate change 'may induce large-scale migration and lead to greater competition for the earth’s resources', which may result in 'increased danger of violent conflicts and wars, within and between states' (Ole Danbolt Mjøs, Chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, 2007) • There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, more famine, more mass displacement – all of which will fuel more conflict for decades (President Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, 10 December 2009)

  5. Physical consequences of climate change • Melting of glaciers and polar ice • Sea-level rise • Changes in precipitation • Increased natural hazards (floods, droughts, hurricanes)

  6. Possible social consequences • Increased vulnerability to physical environment • Increased exposure to health hazards • Destruction of traditional livelihoods • Extensive environmental migration • Decreased predictability = Security issue by an extended definition Warrants the attention of the Security Council

  7. Is climate change animportant factor in future conflict? • Disconnect between NGO, politicians, and think-tank literature and peer-reviewed research • Mixed and cautious conclusions in studies from defense and environment agencies • IPCC, not a main issue · science: peer-reviewed · social implications: more questionable · conflict: flimsy sources • The Stern report hints at conflict; same weakness • There is very little peer-reviewed research on the issue

  8. Global warming and armed conflict, 1946–2006 Global warming and armed conflict, 1946–89 Temperature deviation from global mean, 1951–80. Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Columbia University Frequency of armed conflict. Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset.

  9. Possible pathways to conflict • Sea-level rise  migration  conflict in host areas Drought • Flooding resource competition  local conflict Hurricanes lower state capacity  rebel opportunity Strong version of the neomalthusian model: resource scarcity  conflict Urbanization  social unrest  riots and criminality

  10. Counterarguments to the conflict scenarios • The evidence for a link between scarcity and conflict is limited to selected case studies • Statistical, comparative analyses have not converged on a robust association between scarcity of renewable resources and armed conflict • Predictions of new conflicts are dependent on general relationships • Migration  conflict in host areas, but probably as a result of ’imported conflict’ • Analyses of disasters and conflict suggest a connection, but mostly for geological disasters, and mechanisms unclear • And there are significant exceptions, such as Aceh • Water literature has moved from ’water wars’ to ’water cooperation’ • Climate change is generally a slow process; this points to adaptation

  11. Temperature and conflict By Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website Climate 'is a major cause' of conflict in Africa Burke et al. (2009) i PNAS, as presented at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8375949.stm.

  12. Time series for Burke et al. (2009)

  13. - and for an extended time period

  14. Priorities • Disaggregate the climate-conflict debate • Couple models of climate change to models of conflict • Collect better data on violence (one-sided, non-state) • Collect geo-referenced data • Look at interactions between climate change and political and economic factors • Balance negative and positive effects (e.g. food) • Integrate consequences of climate changes with other economic and social changes • Calculate costs of reversing climate change vs. mitigation • Focus on the most important consequences

  15. Conclusions • Climate change is a major challenge • Climate change is a security issue • There is little evidence to date that armed conflict is an important consequence • Analysis does not depend on the causes of climate change • But countermeasures do • Policy measures also depend on the consequences • More research on climate change and conflict is a priority • The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report should include conflict

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