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Climate Change and Armed Conflict

Climate Change and Armed Conflict. James R. Lee, “ Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars ” (Routledge, 2009) James R. Lee and Alex Kizer, “Climate Change and Border Disputes” (forthcoming). jlee@american.edu. Re-Think the World: IPCC Regions. Temperature Forecasts in 2100.

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Climate Change and Armed Conflict

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  1. Climate Change and Armed Conflict James R. Lee, “Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars” (Routledge, 2009) James R. Lee and Alex Kizer, “Climate Change and Border Disputes” (forthcoming). jlee@american.edu

  2. Re-Think the World: IPCC Regions

  3. Temperature Forecasts in 2100

  4. Precipitation Forecasts in 2100

  5. Post-1945 Conflict History (Using SIPRI)

  6. Future to 2015 Conflicts (Using DOD)

  7. Hot and Cold Wars • Hot Wars War of Contraction Livelihood conflict Ancient Conflict Developing Countries • Cold Wars War of Expansion Militarized conflict New Conflict Developed Countries

  8. Climate Change and Conflict: Hot (Old) and Cold (New) Tension Belts

  9. SIX SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT • The End of the Ice Age • Where Have the Tropical Forests Gone? • The Great World Desert and Water Wars • Protein and Livelihood Deficits in Africa • Central Asia is Heating Up • Rising Tides Don’t Lift All Ships

  10. Short-Term Impacts: Climate Change and Border Disputes • “Italy and Switzerland are planning to redraw their shared alpine border, as global warming is melting the glaciers that originally guided the line.” • Michael Marshall, “Climate changes Europe's borders – and the world's”, New Scientist Online, March, 2009.

  11. Why Borders Will Move Due to Climate Change • 1. Straight and Crooked Borders: Nation-states and colonialism • 2. Why Types of Crooked Borders: • Mountains • Rivers • Glaciers • 3. Early onset of climate change in impacting these three areas

  12. Likely Areas to Experience Short-Term Border Disputes Due to Climate Change

  13. The Political Dimensions of Climate Change and Equity • Why No Pessimism in Climate Change Forecasts? • Winners and Losers: Is Climate Change Good for Me? • The Climate as War: Environmental Modification Treaty Updates

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