1 / 22

Climate change and water availability in Egypt

Climate change and water availability in Egypt . Laura Sokka 10 th August 2004. Outline . Present water supply and consumption in Egypt Impacts of climate change on the Nile flow Sea level rise Conclusions . Renewable water supply in Egypt in 2000 (FAO, Aquastat 2004).

catrin
Download Presentation

Climate change and water availability in Egypt

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate change and water availability in Egypt Laura Sokka 10th August 2004

  2. Outline • Present water supply and consumption in Egypt • Impacts of climate change on the Nile flow • Sea level rise • Conclusions

  3. Renewable water supply in Egypt in 2000 (FAO, Aquastat 2004)

  4. Water demand in Egypt in 2000 (FAO, Aquastat 2004) Available renewable resources 62.53 km3 -> Consumption already exceeding long-term available renewable resources

  5. Climate change • Climate changes is expected to cause changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and other hydrological processes • Changes in regional water availability one of the most serious impacts posed by climate change • Several studies (e.g. Riebsame et al. 1995, Conway & Hulme 1996) have identified Nile to be particularly vulnerable to climate change

  6. Possible consequences of climate change for water availability in Egypt • Reductions in the flow of the Nile • Intrusion of sea water into coastal aquifers

  7. Problems in modelling regional impacts of climate change • The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to predict regional or local changes limited (e.g. Leavesley 1994, Xu 1999) • Hydrological processes determined locally • Common approach to link meteorological and hydrologic models with GCMs

  8. Problems in modelling the River Nile • Complex hydrology which very sensitive to climatic fluctuations • Main body of waters originate from two very distinct regions • Equatorial Plateau (White Nile) • Ethiopian Plateau (Blue Nile)

  9. Assessments of the impacts of climate change on Egypt’s water resources • Riebsame et al. 1995 (in Strzepek & Smith (Eds.), pp. 57-91) • Results from 3 GCMs where applied to hydrological and management models

  10. Summary of selected hydrological impacts for the GCMs

  11. Average annual changes (% of the Base case) in the Nile Flow

  12. Assessments of the impacts of climate change on Egypt’s water resources • Conway et al. 1996 (Ambio 25 (5):336-342) and Conway & Hulme 1996 (Wat Res Dev 12 (3): 277-296 • Uses driving forces from IMAGE2.0 and GCMs, and hydrological models of the Nile tributaries • Time period 1990-2050

  13. Availability of water for Egypt in 2050 according to the studied scenarios

  14. Change (%) compared to current water availability

  15. Assessments of the impacts of climate change on Egypt’s water resources • Yates & Strzepek (1998), Strzepek & Yates (2000), Yates (1996) • Study climate change impacts on Egypt’s water availability up to 2060

  16. Runoff from the Nile Basin and annually available water for Egypt in 2060 (Yates & Strzepek 1998)

  17. Summary of the projected flow available for Egypt • Riebsame et al. (1995): Changes in water available for Egypt between 18% and -83% • Conway et al. (1996): -3 km-9 km3/year • Yates & Strzepek (1998): -5.7-22.1 km3/year

  18. Sea level rise • Natural sea level rise along the Northern Egyptian coast 0.4-5 mm/year (El-Raey et al. 1999) • During the recent decades erosion has also increased as a result of reduced sediment load from the Nile • IPCC (1995) predicts sea level rise of 0.15-0.9 m by the year 2100

  19. Impacts of sea level rise • Possible consequences of sea level rise include inundation and erosion, saltwater intrusion, increased soil salinity, changes of coastal ecosystems and losses of productivity • Several papers on the vulnerability of the Nile Delta to sea level rise (e.g. El-Raey et al. 1996, 1999a & 1999b, Sherif & Shingh 1999, Frihy 2003) • Frihy (2003) assessed 30% of the Nile Delta and Alexandria coast areas to be vulnerable to sea level rise

  20. Impacts of sea level rise • Tourism most adversely affected, agriculture the least (El-Raey et al. 1997, 1999) • Sherif & Singh (1999) found the Nile Delta aquifer to be very vulnerable to sea level rise • Additional pumping of water from the aquifer would increase sea water intrusion

  21. Conclusions from the review of climate change impacts on Egypt • The Nile extremely sensitive to climatic fluctuations • The impacts of climate change on water availability uncertain • In relation to water availability, the changes in Nile flow more important than impacts of sea level rise on groundwater resources

  22. Conclusions from the review of climate change impacts on Egypt • Egypt already presently exceeding its long-term available water resources • New sources of water/water saving needed regardless of climate change • Other threats: increased water use in the upstream countries

More Related