RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies

1. RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies Dr Ian Holman Institute of Water and Environment Cranfield University Silsoe Bedford Project duration- 1st September 2003 to 31st August 2005 http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm

2. Overview • Introduction to RegIS1 • Recommendations for future IA’s • RegIS2- rationale and framework • RegIS2 Interface tool • Conclusions

3. ?? RegIS- from sectoral assessment….. Most studies: Climate change Sector Impact (effect)

4. BIODIVERSITY Ecosystems, species & habitats AGRICULTURE Yields, profitability & land use MODELS & INTERACTIONS WATER quantity, quality & flooding COASTAL ZONE Sea level rise, flooding & erosion GIS DATABASE Model inputs & outputs, landscape characteristics SCENARIOS Climate and socio-economic change INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT STAKEHOLDERS …to Integrated Assessment?

5. RegIS: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies • 1st integrated assessment of climate change in UK • Considered socio-economic and climate change • 4 sectors- coasts, agriculture, water & biodiversity • Interactions between sectors through linked models • Two contrasting regions- North West & East Anglia • 5 km x 5 km http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/

6. The RegIS Study Area • Contrasting climate, landuse, landscape

7. Example results from RegIS1 Flooding Agriculture Recharge + run-off Hydrology & groundwater resources Scenarios Biodiversity

8. RegIS1 • Long model run times • No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’ • >1Gb of model output per run • Questions identified by RegIS team • Model application by RegIS team • But still successful!

9. Recommendations following RegIS Included (fully or partially) in RegIS2 • Extreme weather events • More sectors • Uncertainty analysis • Closer integration of user needs • Twin-track modelling approach Not included in RegIS2 • National SE scenarios • “Integrated scenarios” of change • Continuous responses to changing circumstances • Risk-based

10. Rationale behind RegIS2 • RegIS1 • Long model run times • No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’ • >1Gb of model output per run • Questions identified by RegIS team • Model application by RegIS team • But still successful! • RegIS2 • Faster model run times • All models linked within an interface • Limited targeted model output • Questions identified by stakeholders • Model application by the stakeholders • …….

11. Key project objectives • To refine the RegIS risk assessment methodology into a form usable by Stakeholders; • To develop regional scenarios; • To identify, with stakeholders, critical impacts, interactions, adaptive responses, and interface design; • To develop a user friendly software tool, containing …scenarios,…the metamodels and the input data needed for Stakeholders to analyse impacts, interactions and adaptive responses.

12. Methodological Framework • Based on the DPSIR methodology: Drivers-Pressure-State-Impacts-Response • Developed for planning sustainable development • Used successfully within the RegIS • Allows facilitate explicit investigation of the interactions between: • the driving forces of environmental and climate change (drivers-pressure); • the sensitivity of impact indicators (state-impacts) and; • stakeholder adaptive strategies (responses).

13. DPSIR within RegIS2 Drivers: the underlying exogenous causes of change, e.g. climate/socio-economic change, national policy.  qualitative, narrative storylines, e.g. SRES Pressure: the variables that quantify drivers e.g. regional population, precipitation, etc. regional, quantitative scenarios. State: variables that represent the sensitivity of the system to the pressure variables, e.g. river flows etc meta-models to derive state variables Impact: a measure of whether the changes in the state variables have a negative or positive effect derive impact indicators and translate these into impact classes reflecting value judgements. Response: planned (societal level) adaptation that acts on the socio-economic pressure variables use REGIS2 interface

14. Drivers (storylines) REGIS2 IAM (based on DPSIR) Pressures (scenarios) Autonomous adaptation (feedbacks) State (metamodels) Planned adaptation Impact (indicators) Response (user options)

15. Biodiversity Rural land use Simplified representation of RegIS2 Urban development patterns STATE / IMPACT DRIVERS PRESSURES High river flows Climate scenarios Climate variables Coastal model Fluvial flood model Sensitivity anduncertaintyanalyses Flooding Sensitivity, uncertainty and adaptive responses analyses Water resources Water demand Water Availability SE variables SES scenarios RESPONSES

16. RegIS2 Interface The intention: • User friendly • intuitive • Robust • Fast run times • Allow investigation of adaptive responses, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis The reality……….

17. Interface v2.0 Drivers State / Impact Pressures/ Responses

18. Example results

19. Example results

20. Conclusions • RegIS represented a significant step in local IA • RegIS2 will not do everything! • RegIS2 will build upon, and improve, on RegIS • The RegIS2 tool will (hopefully) be used to explore our uncertain (climate and socio-economic) futures

21. RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies Dr Ian Holman Institute of Water and Environment Cranfield University Silsoe Bedford http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm