PPAI 2005/06 Activity Report: Prediction, Predictability, and Applications Interface Panel (PPAI)

1. Prediction, Predictability and Applications Interface Panel (PPAI)2005/06 Activity Report Tom Delworth Lisa Goddard Alex Hall Wayne Higgins Ben Kirtman Randy Koster Nate Mantua Simon Mason Gerry Meehl Kelly Redmond Gavin Schmidt US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO

2. PPAI Our mission is to foster improved practices in the provision, validation, and uses of climate information and forecasts through coordinated participation within U.S. and international climate science and applications communities. GOALS • Further fundamental understanding of climate predictability at seasonal to centennial time scales • Improve provision of climate forecast information, particularly with respect to drought and other extreme events • Foster research and development of prediction systems of climate impacts on ecosystems • Enable use of CLIVAR science for improved decision support US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO

3. PPAI Panel Activities(General) US CLIVAR Working Groups - Sub-seasonal Variability (MJO) WG – together with POS & PSMI - Drought WG – together with POS Interaction with Agencies • NOAA’s CVP program • NOAA’s CPP Office • Scoping post-doc program (NSF and NOAA) • Encouraging further CMEP-like activities (NSF and NOAA, and IAG, in general) Panels & Committees • International CLIVAR panels (SSG, VAMOS, WGSIP, WGCM) • NOAA’s Climate Test Bed (CTB Director, 1 SAB, 3 CST) • NOAA’s Office of Climate Observations’ Climate Observing Systems Council US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO

4. Predictability “Review” Papers (Goals #1,4) • 3 papers, covering predictability and prediction issues on the seasonal-to-interannual (SI), decadal,and climate change timescales • The SI review is drawing on model data provided through the WCRP-COPES Task Force on Seasonal Prediction and WGSIP • The “reviews” for the longer timescales are less developed, but will be mapped out at the Summit • Document current SI skills for the US, and serve as a template for similar analyses for other regions • Document current efforts and challenges of delivering information on longer timescales US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO

5. Workshop on Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic(Goal #1) • Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic convened at GFDL, June 1-2, 2006 The aim of the meeting was to sharpen ideas on Atlantic decadal predictability, which components might be predictable, whether and how to go forward and set up experimental predictability systems and what observations would be required to test, improve and initialize them. • Overlap with POS & PSMI • Organizing committee: Ants Leetmaa, Tom Delworth (PPAI), John Marshall (POS), Tony Rosati US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO

6. 2006 AGU Special Session(Goals #1,2,3,4) Special session for Fall 2006 AGU Increasing credibility of climate predictions The purpose of this session is to examine the credibility of state-of-the-art climate predictions from seasonal to centennial timescales, with an eye toward improving them • Overlap with POS & PSMI US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO

7. Applications Interface Post-Doctoral Program(Goal #4) • Join decision makers in local, state, regional, or federal agencies (e.g. FEMA, USDA) with young climate scientists • Increase the demand of climate information, and hence climate research • Grow the pool of qualified individuals to work at this important interface between climate science and its uptake • To cover 3-5 post-docs will cost less money per agency than a typical single grant award US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO

8. PPAI Focus at 2006 US CLIVAR Summit Prediction/predictability across timescales  DECADAL VARIABILITY is the outstanding scientific challenge + DV is the link between SI and CC + DV is relevant to both SI and CC prediction Current PPAI Goals and Activities align well with DV as a prime (though not sole) focus of US CLIVAR • Prediction “reviews” • Climate impacts and ecosystems • International collaboration US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO