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Transportation 2005: An Overview

Presented by James S. Leanos and Henry Kay, this overview explores the causes of traffic congestion and proposes possible solutions such as additional system capacity, travel demand modification, travel demand reduction, and new infrastructure. It also discusses the funding of roads and transit systems.

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Transportation 2005: An Overview

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  1. Transportation 2005: An Overview Presented by: James S. Leanos, Principal Corporate Property Solutions, L.L.C And Henry Kay, Director of Transportation The Greater Baltimore Committee

  2. Congestion • Traffic Congestion exists wherever there is sprawl, rapid population growth and unbalanced transportation systems. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  3. Possible Solution #1Additional System Capacity • One 12’ Highway Lane = 2,200-2,300 cars/hr. • One Person/Car =2,200-2,300 people/hr. • One single-track rail guideway (also 12’ wide)=>25,000 people/hr. • Problem: ridership in rail transit • Trend: ridership has increased as congestion has increased James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  4. Possible Solution #2Travel Demand Modification • Change Travel Times, Paths, or Modes • Congestion occurs mostly at peak hours • Shift away from peak hours = less congestion • Possibilities: • Flex Time • M.O.V.’s (i.e., Carpools), not S.O.V.’s • Transit—Users demand good service. • Transit User perception of transit varies directly with congestion. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  5. Possible Solution #3Travel Demand Reduction • Tele-commuting • 4-day Work Week • Trip Chaining James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  6. Possible Solution #4New Infrastructure • New Roads • Improved Roads, Intersections, Lanes • Fixed Guideway Transit—New and Extended • Dedicated Transit Lanes James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  7. What’s Fueling Congestion? • Historic Growth in Auto Ownership, Use and Vehicle Miles Travelled James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  8. Consequences of VMT • Each Day in the USA • 100 Million People • >1 Billion Miles • 90% in Cars • 3% per year growth may be reducing to 2% per year in cars • Freight may pick up the slack with 82% of shipments by truck James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  9. Observations • The Relationship between traffic volume and speed on highways in not linear. • At higher levels of congestion, smaller VMT increases trigger proportionally larger congestion consequences. • Therefore, even if VMT moderates, congestion will likely increase. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

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  11. How Roads are Funded • TEA-21 The Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century • Describes specific Highway and Transit Projects eligible for federal funding James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  12. Four Basic Urban Road Functions • Local Roads & Streets • Collectors • Arterials • Interstate System James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

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  15. State Funding • 70% from Highway User Fees • Gas Tax & Tolls • 30% from • Bond Issues • General Fund Appropriations • Non-highway Related Sources James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  16. Local Funding • General Fund Appropriations • Property Taxes • Local-option Transportation Taxes • Transportation Sales Taxes James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  17. Federal Aid • TEA-21 • 18.4 ¢/gallon gas-tax • Up to 80% of the eligible costs • Remaining contribution is state & local • Examples of TEA-21 Eligible Projects: • Interstate system/Interstate maintenance • Surface Transportation Program (STP) • Congestion Mitigation/Air Quality Improvement • Transportation Enhancements James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  18. Maryland State Transportation Revenues • Motor Fuel Taxes • Vehicle Titling Fees • Registration Fees • Corporate Income Taxes • User Fees James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  19. MD Transportation Revenues James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

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  21. Where does Transit Fit In? • Best fit in high density regions • An alternative to road congestion • Six Regions have transit ridership exceeding 10% of total commuters • New York, Chicago, Washington, D.C. Boston, San Francisco, Philadelphia • The next 15 Regions have 3%-7% share James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  22. Transit’s Problems • Low Density • Use-segregated Development James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  23. Transit’s Problems • U of California, Berkeley: • “Urban population densities they report fell 20 percent from 1980 to 2000, from 4.5 to 3.5 persons per urban acre. Of 281 metro areas, only six percent became denser over the same time period. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  24. For Transit to be Effective: • Douglas Porter, a Smart Growth advocate says: • Local and Regional Transit Services must function interactively with highway travel • Investment in Transit needs to be reinforced with development strategies aimed at building a compelling market for transit—the mix of uses and major traffic congestion. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  25. Transit has changed! • Traditional 40-60 foot bus, + Articulated bus • Light Rail • Heavy Rail—Metro • Commuter Rail—MARC • Bus Rapid Transit—The Red Line? • Small Buses—Hampden Shuttle • Demand-responsive services—Mobility/Paratransit James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  26. Transit Improvements • Bus System Maps and Schedules at Bus Stops • Electronic Signs announcing next bus arrival • Electronic fareboxes with ubiquitous farecard availability. • Bus transponders for signal priority James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  27. 2000 Transit Modal Share: Journey to Work • New York/New Jersey/Long Island CMSA: 24.0% • Chicago/Gary/Kenosha CMSA: 11.49% • Boston/Worcester/Lawrence CMSA: 9.03% • Washington/Baltimore/CMSA: 9.43% • Philadelphia/Wilmington/Atlantic City CMSA: 8.73% James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  28. Current Topic in Transportation • Induced Travel: • “Traffic quickly fills any new road capacity” • e.g., I-270, when doubled in lanes from 6 to 12, quickly exceeded planned 2010 traffic levels James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  29. Induced Travel • Mark Hanson’s 1995 Study: • On average, every 10% increase in new road capacity spurres a 9% increase in new traffic volume within 3-4 years • These are new trips that would not have been taken without new road capacity. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  30. Induced Travel • “Not building roads not a viable option”, Cervero study in California • Cervero found that Induced Demand does exist, but at a lower rate that earlier studies found; • 40% in 3 – 4 years; • Increased capacity benefit lasts 10 – 15 years James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  31. Congestion Pricing • Highway user fees according to the level of congestion in a specific section of road • Similar to peak load airline or electric pricing • Encourages Mode-shift or Time-shift. • FHWA calls it “Value Pricing” • Discussed for ICC and possibly I-95 James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  32. HOT Lanes • High Occupancy Travel • Solo or 2-passenger cars are allowed to buy access to HOV (High Occupancy Vehicle) express lanes that are free or discounted • Another approach, all lanes on a toll road are charged in accordance with level of congestion—no unpriced or express lanes. • Possible with EZ-Pass style toll collection. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  33. FAIR Lanes • Non Express Lane drivers get a credit for not using express lanes while Express Lane drivers pay a surcharge; • Alternatively, credits could be applied to transit fares or commuter park-and-ride lot fees James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  34. Equity Issues • HOT Lanes = “Lexus” Lanes – Unfair? • Encourages Car Pooling as price increases • Pay for themselves and generate additional revenues • Not as comprehensive or equitable as Gas Tax, particularly for Gas Guzzlers and their effect on Global Warming James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  35. Desperation Fuels Innovation • Atlanta – MARTA, HOT Lanes, TOD's • Dallas – Commuter Rail “DART” LRT • Denver – Commuter Rail LRT • San Jose – Commuter Rail LRT and Buses • Charlotte – Integrated Transit/Land Use • Phoenix –“Aztec” ITS James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  36. Vancouver, BC Does It All!www.translink.bc.ca • Translink – GVTA, a true regional approach-- • Based upon goals of GVRD Livable Region Strategic Plan • An all-in regional Authority handling Roads, Goods Movement, Bridges, Ferries, Buses, BRT, Light Rail, SkyTrain (high-speed rail), and Commuter Rail James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  37. Where’s the Moolah? James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  38. Where’s the Moolah? • Gas Tax = 32.9% • Vehicle Tax = 21.5% • Tolls = 8.1% • Levies & General Funds = 4.2% • Misc = 2.8% • Bond Proceeds = 0.0% • Federal Payments = 26.9% • Local Payments = 0.1% James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  39. Where’s the Moolah? • Transit fund sources: James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  40. Where’s the Moolah? James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  41. Where’s the Moolah? James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  42. Where’s the Moolah? James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  43. Where’s the Moolah? James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  44. Where’s the Moolah? James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  45. Smart Growth & Transportation • As of 2003, it was estimated that $78 billion per year is wasted, both in lost time and burned gasoline, because of congestion. • $7 billion of extra fuel is blamed on these delays, enough to keep more than half the vehicles in California – the third largest fuel consumer in the world – on the road for an entire year! • In 1999, the average USA motorist spent 36 hours /week stuck in traffic, with no financial benefit resulting from it. • Source, NAR James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  46. Smart Growth & Transportation • Smart Growth, in a transportation context, results in reduced dependence on only one form of transportation, and environmentally friendly transport choices. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  47. Smart Growth & Transportation • Transit-using cities are correlated to their densities. New York, London, Paris, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo are among the most transit-dependent cities. • Baltimore City is among the five most densely populated cities in the USA, thereby making it fertile ground for improved transit use rates. We already succeed in ridership rates among our peer cities; however, it’s not a transit of choice, but a transit of necessity. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  48. Smart Growth & Transportation • The challenge is to improve the performance and operations of transit while invoking land-use standards, expectations, and regulations which concentrate density around transit systems. We must think in terms of Transit Oriented Development. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  49. New Behaviors/Technologies • As an example of behavior modification, if we used the funds expended by the USA in its Iraq campaign to buy Toyota Prius’s for Americans, we would eliminate a need or 1/3rd of the potential oil output of Iraq by replacing the related vehicle fleet and directly reduce the USA oil import requirements and thereby similarly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

  50. James S. Leanos and Henry Kay

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