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Growth in Emerging Countries and Cycles Beyond Demographics

presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. Growth in Emerging Countries and Cycles Beyond Demographics. (2009). (1993). Growth in Emerging Countries. Urbanization Rates in Select Developed Countries. % Urbanization.

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Growth in Emerging Countries and Cycles Beyond Demographics

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  1. presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. Growth in Emerging Countries andCycles Beyond Demographics (2009) (1993)

  2. Growth in Emerging Countries

  3. Urbanization Rates in Select Developed Countries % Urbanization Source: Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Development Center Studies, OECD, 2001.

  4. Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% .1% 10% 0 The Wealth CurveThe S-Curve of Industrialization/Urbanization India China Korea Percent Adoption Japan U.S., Australia, New Zealand Western Europe Time Source: HS Dent

  5. Income by Age, 10-Year Cohorts Source: Euromonitor International, World Income Distribution, 2008/2009, 6th Edition.

  6. Brazil GDP per Capita vs. Urbanization $6,400 GDP Per Capita % Urbanization Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and World Bank, 2011

  7. Brazil Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth 1950 - 2095 Source: United Nations, HS Dent

  8. China GDP per Capita vs. Urbanization $12,000 $10,100 GDP Per Capita % Urbanization Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and World Bank, 2011

  9. China Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth1950 - 2095 Source: United Nations, HS Dent

  10. India GDP per Capita vs. Urbanization $10,300 GDP Per Capita % Urbanization Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and World Bank, 2011

  11. India Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth1950 - 2095 Source: United Nations, HS Dent

  12. Philippines GDP per Capita vs. Urbanization GDP Per Capita $2,900 % Urbanization Source: United Nations. Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Development Center Studies, OECD, 2001.

  13. Global Innovation/Inflation Wave India Pakistan N. Africa Mid East Saudi Arabia China 2 Russia 2 US 1 Europe Mexico SE Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Japan 2 S. Korea US 2 Indonesia Brazil China 1 Russia 1 Japan 1 Source: United Nations

  14. Global Spending Wave India Pakistan N. Africa Mid East Saudi Arabia China 2 Russia 2 US 1 Europe Mexico SE Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Japan 2 S. Korea US 2 Indonesia Brazil China 1 Russia 1 Japan 1 Source: United Nations

  15. Total World PopulationProjection for 2010 -2100 In Billions Source: Investor’s Business Daily, 4/22/2004, Pg A16

  16. History of World Population Growth Population in Millions (Ratio Scale) Population in Millions (Linear Scale)

  17. Projections for GDP in 2065U.S., China and India Source: HS Dent

  18. Cycles Beyond Demographics

  19. 34-36 Year Geopolitical CycleDow Industrials Source: HS Dent, Yahoo Finance

  20. 29-30 Year Commodity Price CycleCRB Index (PPI before 1947) 1913-2040 2039-40 2008-10 1980 1949-1951 1920 Source: Bloomberg

  21. Decennial Pattern Since 1900Dow Industrials - Average 10-Year Decennial PatternWeekly Data 1/6/1900-12/31/1999 Source: Ned Davis Research, www.ndr.com

  22. 4th Presidential Year 1st Presidential Year 2nd Presidential Year 3rd Presidential Year Four-Year Presidential Cycle Source: Ned Davis Research, www.ndr.com

  23. 500-Year Mega Innovation Cycles Source: E.H. Phelps Brown & Sheila V. Hopkins

  24. 250-Year Revolutionary Cycle 2150 1900 1650 2nd American Revolution Emerging World Revolution Network Revolution American Revolution French Revolution Industrial Revolution Protestant Revolution Capitalist Revolution Year

  25. The Spending WaveActual and Trendline Source: HS Dent

  26. The Spending Wave and the Decennial Cycle Source: HS Dent

  27. The Decennial and 4-Year Cycles Source: HS Dent

  28. 24-Month, 40-Month and Decennial Cycle Source: Richard Mogey - Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Inc

  29. The Three BubblesDow Head-and-Shoulders Pattern H S S Logarithmic Scale Source: Yahoo Finance

  30. Russell 2000 Rising 3 Bubbles1995 - 2011 3 2 1 Logarithmic Scale Source: Bloomberg

  31. Gold IndexJanuary 1, 1998 – March 30, 2011 5 5 5 3 1 3 4 3 2 5 1 4 Price of Gold 2 3 4 1 4 1 2 2 Source: Bloomberg

  32. iBoxx High Yield Bond Index1998 – 2011 Source: Bloomberg

  33. Projected Federal Deficit for 2020at Varying Revenue Levels ($ Billions) Source: Congressional Budget Office Presidential Budget, HS Dent

  34. Total US Debt Obligations Total US Debt $56 trn + Unfunded Federal Liabilities $46 trn = Total Debt Obligations $102 trn 7 x GDP !!!

  35. Dow Comparison Scenario #1 1968-1974 vs. 2007-2013 Adjusted for Inflation Source: Yahoo Finance

  36. Dow Comparison Scenario #2 1968-1974 vs. 2007-2013 Adjusted for Inflation Source: Yahoo Finance

  37. 40 50 60 70 80 30 20 Age Average Annual Family Spending by Age (5-year age groups) 46-50 Spending

  38. S&P 500 IndexScenario #1 B c a b Source: Yahoo Finance

  39. Dollar Index1980 – 2011 16.5 - Year -53% 5 -42% 3 b 1 4 a c 2 Source: Bloomberg 16.0 - Year

  40. 15-Year and 60-Year Cycles in US Dollar Source: Richard Mogey, Foundation for the Study of Cycles

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