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Climate Change 101

Climate Change 101. CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008. Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…. 1995. 2004. Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…. 1995. 2004. 2006. Presentation Outline.

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Climate Change 101

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  1. Climate Change 101 CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008

  2. Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies… 1995 2004

  3. Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies… 1995 2004 2006

  4. Presentation Outline • The Greenhouse Effect • Where Does Our Energy Come From? • Emissions • Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes • Future Trends

  5. Source: EPA Global Warming site. http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html

  6. Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008 http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html

  7. CONVERSION CHARTS • 1 unit carbon (C) = 3.6667 or 44/12 units carbon dioxide (CO2) • 1 unit CO2 = 0.2727 or 12/44 units C • Converting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to equivalent CO2 and C units: • Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2 = 1 • GWP of CH4 = 21 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report) • GWP of N2O = 310 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report) • EXAMPLE: (100 metric tons of N2O)x(310) = 31,000 metric tons of CO2 Equivalents x 12/44 = 8,454 metric tons of Carbon Equivalents x 2204/2000 = 9,316 short tons C • Converting mass units (e.g., short tons, metric tons, teragrams) • 1 metric ton (tonne) = 1,000 kilograms (kg) = 2,204 lbs • 1 short ton = 0.9072 metric tons = 2,000 lbs • 1 Teragram (Tg) = 1012 grams = 1 million (106) metric tons • 1 Gigaton (Gt) = 1 Petagram (Pg) = 1015 grams = 1 billion (109) metric tons

  8. Presentation Outline • The Greenhouse Effect • Where Does Our Energy Come From? • Emissions • Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes • Future Trends

  9. Fossil FuelsWorld’s Dominant Energy Source World (2005) 462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy United States (2005) 100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy Gas 23% Gas 23% Coal 26% Coal 23% Nuclear 8% Nuclear6% Hydro 3% Renewables 8% Oil 41% Oil 37% Other renewable (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3% World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html. U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html

  10. Fossil Energy - America’s Energy Foundation 2005 Oil 40% 100 Quads Renewables 6% Coal 26% Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy Gas 20% Nuclear 7% + 31% 2030 Oil 41% 131 Quads Coal 23% By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains stable at 86% Renewables 6% Gas 23% Nuclear 8% Source: AEO 2007

  11. Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast, But From a Small Base 2005 6.3 Quads + 118% 2030 13.7 Quads Source: AEO 2008

  12. Presentation Outline • The Greenhouse Effect • Where Does Our Energy Come From? • Emissions • Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes • Future Trends

  13. All Fossil Fuels & Energy SectorsContribute CO2 Emissions United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions (By Source & Sector) Transportation 32% Residential 21% Natural Gas 20% Commercial 18% Industry 29% Coal 36% Oil 44% AEO2007

  14. CO2 & CH4 - The Primary GHG Contributors United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Equivalent Global Warming Basis) Other CO2 2% Methane 9% CO2 from Energy 83% Nitrous Oxide 5% HFCs, PFCs, SF6 2% “EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S.: 2005”

  15. Carbon Intensity is Falling… Carbon Intensity By Region, 2001-2025 (Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997) World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, 2001-2025 (Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent) …But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are Growing

  16. Different Concentration Levels are Possible Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

  17. Stabilization Requires a Budget Billion tonnes Carbon (1900-2100) ppm Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

  18. The Budget is Disappearing Cumulative carbon emissions 1900-2100 (GtC) Spent Remaining Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

  19. Presentation Outline • The Greenhouse Effect • Where Does Our Energy Come From? • Emissions • Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes • Future Trends

  20. Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…

  21. CO2 Concentrations On The Rise(~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years) 350 CO2 Concentration (ppmv) 300 CO2 (Vostok) 250 200 2 0 Temperature Change from Present (oC) DTatm (Vostok) -2 -4 200 150 100 50 0 Time Before Present (kyr)

  22. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm

  23. Presentation Outline • The Greenhouse Effect • Where Does Our Energy Come From? • Emissions • Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes • Future Trends

  24. Possible harbingers… • Rising sea levels • Spreading disease • Earlier spring arrival • Plant and animal range shifts and population changes • Coral reef bleaching • Permafrost melting • Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding • Droughts and fires

  25. Permafrost and polar ice are melting… Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

  26. Precipitation is erratic Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

  27. Significant Climate Anomalies Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

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