Climate Change Financing on the Frontlines:

1. Climate Change Financing on the Frontlines: OCEANS, COASTS and ISLANDS Janot Mendler de Suarez Global Forum Working Group on Oceans, Climate & Security The Oceans Day at Cancún Oceans: Essential to Life, Essential to Climate At the UNFCCC COP-16, December 4, 2010

2. Our best adaptation estimates… still fragmented and incomplete • UNFCCC in 2007: $11 billion/year for adaptation in coastal zones • used lower sea level rise predictions • did not include: impacts of increasing storm intensity • World Bank/UN Economics of Climate Change Adaptation 2010 report: $70-100 billion/yr needed for adaptionin developing countries by 2020 • “only”about 0.2% of projected GDP for all developing countries • limited sectoral or standard mark-up estimates do not adequately account for: relative costs of differential vulnerabilities among and within countries, multiplier effects on other sectors, ecosystem impacts

3. Coastal zone adaptation costs: $26-89 billion/year by 2040s • Cost estimates used lower rate of Sea Level Rise • Focus is mainly on infrastructure costs (sea walls, etc.) • Significant for what it does not include: • Impacts of major storm events • Coral reef degradation • Loss of livelihoods • Cross-sectoral impacts • Ecosystem-based adaptation measures

4. Coastal Agriculture: declining • Highest production declines in developing countries • Largest drop in major delta crops - rice & wheat • Most affected region: South Asia • $7 billion/year needed for agricultural adaptation in developing countries (International Food Policy Research Institute) • Africa’s needs account for almost 40 percent of total required • South Asia investment needs: $1.5 billion/year • Latin America and the Caribbean: $1.2 to $1.3 billion/year • East Asia and the Pacific: about $1 billion/year • $7 bn/yr. (ECCA) just to reduce global child malnutritionto levels predicted without climate change • Significant anecdotal impacts on small coastal farmersas yet undocumented in scientific literature used to assess & estimate costs

5. Fisheries: 10s of billions of dollars… • $40billion gross revenue losses expected due to overfishing & climate change (50% reduction in today’s$80 billion annual global fisheries gross revenues) • $25 billion of this: developing country annual losses • $7 billion in East Asia • 16 billion in the Pacific • 50% drop in coral reef species by 2050 • losses will severely impact fisheries and food security, livelihoods and tourism revenues, especially in islands • Costs to adapt are not quantified but likely to be high

6. Sea Level Rise: $11billion/yr. (UNFCCC) • Based on gradual SLR, does not account for: storm surge impacts, coral reef destruction or critical climate services provided by coastal and marine ecosystems • No costings for: saline intrusion in coastal aquifers, destruction of habitats that support fisheries,mariculture, and biodiversity. • Assumptions based on cost-effective OECD protection measures at a very low %GDP whereby SLR costs are reduced • May not apply in most developing countries where trend is rapid population growth in coastal cities with 50% slum dwellers – up to 70% in sub-saharan Africa, while developing country megacities (above 10 million people) are becoming latent ‘disaster traps’ • Much higher %GDP required for Small Island Developing States • 1.4-13.5% GDP for top 3 most-affected countries: limited scope applies

7. Disasters: 65% increase expected by major reinsurers (World Bank/UN ECCA) • Tropical cyclone damages: predicted to double baseline with an additional $54 billion/yr due to CC by 2100 • South Asia: 246 million people in cyclone-prone urban areas by 2050 • Sub-Saharan Africa: 21 million at risk by 2050 • Caribbean islands among worst hit when damages scaled by GDP, with costs up to $300 billion/yr predicted by ECLAC • Other extreme events: floods, droughts, heat waves, and cold events • Climate change expected to add up $11-16 billion to projected $113billion/yrbaseline by 2100

8. What Cancún can do: • Underscore the need for UNFCCC commitments for adaptation financing to be increased,prioritized for the most vulnerable ½ of humanity living in the coastal zones of 183 nations including 44 Small Island Developing States • Countries can commit to decisive action to actively restore and sustain the protective and productive functioning of their coastal and marine ecosystems within and beyond the UNFCCC process • Governments can engage civil society in establishing early warning / early action systems to better prepare for and respond to climate change and prevent or reduce disasters • Groups of countries can explore regional disaster risk insurance pools and open access to risk reduction for the poor and most vulnerable through instruments such as index insurance.