More Is Different Sorin Solomon HUJ and ISI

1. More Is DifferentSorin SolomonHUJ and ISI Real world is controlled … • by the exceptional, not the mean; • by the catastrophe, not the steady drip; • by the very rich, not the ‘middle class’. we need to free ourselves from ‘average’ thinking. Philip Anderson

2. Executive Abstract: The Multi-Agent Complex Systems approach identifies-singular local elements of change / growth (even at early stageswhere, as whole, the system seems in regress) • spatio-temporal patterns of growth relevant resources - socio-economic / human interactive causal mechanismsleading to growth (e.g. education / cultural level / tradition). Concrete interdisciplinary example: post-liberalization Poland- identifies emergence of resilient, sustainable, developing patterns likely to support sustainable global growth - prediction of (space-time) singular fluctuation patterns that may lead to increased social inequality and economic instability(but also to novelty emergence) The classical paradigms fail in predicting emergence of novelty / development in bio/ cogni / socio/ econo systems - Extension of study to other regions / disciplines

3. “Almost all the social phenomena… obey thelogistic growth”Elliot W Montroll I would urge…logistic equationearly in the education … in the everyday world ofpolitics and economicsLord Robert May Growth ~a Size - Nonlinear Terms(Competion/Saturation) “continuum”Logistic Solution:uniform in space and time: Size a > 0 a < 0 TIME

4. In reality, in Growth ~a Size, ais the result ofmulti-agent spatio-temporal distributed discrete contributions This leads to a complex solution presenting fractal / intermittentcollective macro-objects with self-organized adaptive behavior Size Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction Theorem:resilience and sustainabilityeven for <a><0 <a>< 0 Logistic Differential Equation a<0 TIME

5. ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 0 Andrzej Nowak lab Seemingly similar regions before liberalization Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction <a>< 0 Logistic Differential Equation a<0 1990 1991 1989 1992 Poland Post-Liberalization Social-Economic-Political Development predictions: Multi-Agents vsDifferential Equations

6. ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 1 Andrzej Nowak lab Emerges islandof growth Large region of decay Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction <a>< 0 Logistic Differential Equation a<0 1990 1991 1989 1992 Nowak First year: Global Decay; - MACS predicts Future Growth- DE predicts continuous decay(based on the same Logistsic parameters !)

7. ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 2 Andrzej Nowak lab Most regions are devastated Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction <a>< 0 Yr2:Globally, the situation seems getting worse and worse Logistic Differential Equation a<0 1990 1991 1989 1992 But MACS sees already nuclei of growth

8. ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 3 Andrzej Nowak lab Development spreads from the nuclei to the rest of the country Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction <a>< 0 Logistic Differential Equation a<0 1990 1991 1989 1992 MACS wins over DE (for the same Logistic parameters)

9. ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 12 Andrzej Nowak lab What were the A’s ?

10. Andrzej Nowak lab Nowak the A’s ! EDUCATION (‘88) !!!!

11. EDUCATION (‘88)(note complete correspondence with growth areas AFTER but NOT BEFORE liberalization !) Nowak

12. Economic Growth is in turn “A’s”for Political Transformation Nowak Voting for Reformist Parties

13. Fractal Wealth Distribution: Scaling; Power laws No one however, has yet exhibited a stable social order, ancient or modern, which has not followed the Pareto pattern…Davis; Cowles Commission for Research in Economics Pareto’s curve … great generalizations of human knowledge.Snyder 1939 WALMART GATES Buffet ALLEN 20 Dell Zipf plot of the wealths of the investors in the Forbes 400 of 2003 vs. their ranks. The corresponding model results are shown in the in set.

14. Theorem : Generically stochasticLogistic systems=>Pareto Laws Wide Interdisciplinary Experimental Confirmation Nr of Species vs individuals size Nr of Species vs number of specimens Nr of Species vs their life timeNr of Languages vs number of speakers Nr of countries vs population / size Nr of towns vs. population Nr of product types vs. number of units sold Nr of treatments vs number of patients treated Nr of patients vs cost of treatment Nr of moon craters vs their size Nr of earthquakes vs their strenth Nr of meteorites vs their sizeNr of voids in universe vs their size Nr of galaxies vs their sizeNr of rives vs the size of their basin The 100year oldPareto puzzle is solved by combiningthe 100 year old logistic Lotka-Volterraequation with the 100 year old Boltzmann Statistical Mechanics

15. Theorem: Logistic Multi-Agent Systems=>Intermittent Fluctuations Globalization (efficient but unstable fluctuations) Local Consumption Economy (inefficient but very stable (if population is stable))

16. Distributionof individual wealth ~(by MACS Prediction) Distribution of globalfinancialfluctuations Levy Social equityis good for the financial stability!

17. fractal space distribution Prediction of campaign success (15/17) Goldenberg Air-view of a sub-urban neighborhood; crosses on the roofs indicate air-conditioner purchase

18. Desertification/ Reclaim space-time localized patterns Lavee+Sarah Mediterranean; uniform Semi-arid; patchy Desert;uniform 500mm 200mm

19. Future and on-going studies Romania Piemonte Piemonte Belarus

20. Conclusions • The connections between the main ubiquitous complexity features Pareto-Zipf scaling laws / Levy-stable fat-tail fluctuations,Fractal-Intermittent singular spatio-temporal Growth patterns,Logistic Malthus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster systemPercolation, phase transitions, Emergence of adaptive objects can be understood and expressed within a comprehensive coherent interdisciplinary research framework. • Its applicability in monitoring and inducing novelty emergence, social change, stable economic growth and sustainable development has been demonstrated.