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Addressing Climate Change: Strategies Beyond Science

Explore the impact of climate change, the players involved, strategies for action, and social consequences. Understand the role of the international community and how to set rules effectively. Delve into ethical considerations and future discounting in addressing this global challenge.

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Addressing Climate Change: Strategies Beyond Science

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  1. CLIMATE CHANGE:BEYOND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Menahem E. Yaari Academy Presidents’ Forum Academia Sinica December 6-8, 2008 1

  2. WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) ? CCΞLONG-TERM, SYSTEM-WIDE DEPARTURE FROMESTABLISHED GLOBAL CLIMATE PATTERNS • CCIs Here • CCIs Affecting / Will Affect Everyone (Humans and Other Species) • CC’s Impact Is Very Long (Centuries) • ActionMUSTbe taken (“Doing Nothing” Is Also an Action) SOME UNDISPUTED FACTS 2

  3. PLAYERS = AGENTS WHO CAN ACT DELIBERATELY • COUNTRIES • REGIONS • INDIVIDUALS • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WHO ARE THE CC-RELEVANT PLAYERS? 3

  4. The INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY is a special type of player, because it can set RULES for the other players What are its instruments? • INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS • AGREEMENTS AND TREATIES • PUBLIC OPINION 4

  5. Each player seeks to adopt aSTRATEGY ASTRATEGYis a CONTINGENTPLAN for action The STRATEGY tells the player what to do in each future period, AS AFUNCTION of the INFORMATION that will be available in that period INFORMATION ≡ Accumulated Climate DataScienceTechnologyWhat the OTHERS have done so far 5

  6. The strategy takes Science and Technology as INPUTS, so the SELECTION of a strategy necessarily takes us BEYONDScience and Technology. (KNOWINGX does not tell us how to DEAL/COPE with X) SOME ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS IN THE FORMATION OF A STRATEGY: • Weighing benefits against adversities • Weighing one person’s benefit against another person’s hardship • Weighing the present against the (distant) future • Weighing social phenomena (e.g. INEQUALITY) • Getting the OTHERS to cooperate 6

  7. WEIGHING A MULTITUDE OF GAINS/LOSSES • Utility Theory • Cost-Benefit Analysis • Absence of Observational Record • The Psychology of Human Judgments 7

  8. COMPARING DIFFERENT PEOPLES’ GAINS/LOSSES • Ethics • Utilitarian vs. Rawlsian vs. … • Capabilities, Needs, Preferences 8

  9. DISCOUNTING THE FUTURE • Unprecedented Length of the Time Horizon • What is the “Correct” Rate of Discount? • Private vs. Social (International?) Rate of Discount • Future Generations are Just/Not Like Us • The Problem with Zero Discounting • “Natural” Rates of Discount 9

  10. SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES •  Migration • Congestion • Accelerated Urbanization • Reduced Diversity • Inequality • Political Change 10

  11. SETTING THE RULES • A Prisoners’ Dilemma • Mechanism Design • Creating Incentives • International Implementation 11

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