COMSTAC Risk Management Working Group October 28, 2009

1. COMSTAC Risk Management Working GroupOctober 28, 2009 Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance chris.kunstadter@xlgroup.com

2. Risk Management Working Group • Extension of CSLA indemnification • Three-year extension passed House and sent to Senate Combined Meeting with Space Transp Ops WG • Orbital debris mitigation for upper stages • Current practices and guidelines • Characterization of current environment

3. Upper Stage Debris RisksNASA’s viewpoint • Debris is not yet imminently catastrophic, but mitigation should be initiated • Without mitigation, risk increases dramatically in the long term • International consensus (USG, NASA, ESA, IADC, UN) exists for the proper disposal of launch vehicle orbital stages • Passivation • Short-term presence in LEO (<25 yrs) and GEO (>235+ km) • Limitation of re-entry risks (casualty ratio: 1 in 10,000) • US launch vehicle operators generally doing a good job in all three areas • Formal evaluations for all commercial missions would be beneficial • Greatest challenge [for US launch vehicles] is the reentry risk for Delta 4 and Atlas 5 orbital stages

4. Growth of Tracked Object PopulationObjects>5-10 cm Average growth rates: 1961 – 2007: 220 objects/year 2007 – 2009: 2,200 objects/year

5. Low Earth Orbit Debris Issues • Low earth orbit (LEO) is increasingly used for commercial (and insured) activity • 20 insured commercial satellites (out of >2,000 active satellites) in LEO are insured for $1 billion • Typically commercial imaging (e.g., Digitalglobe, GeoEye), but communications (e.g., Iridium, Globalstar, Orbcomm) is growing • LEO has high spatial density and relative velocity, but “self-cleaning” at lower altitudes • Density is highest between 700 and 900 km

6. Geostationary Orbit Debris Issues • Most commercial (and insured) communications satellites are in geostationary orbit (GEO) • 150 insured satellites (out of 300 active commercial satellites) are insured for $16 billion • Lower spatial density and relative velocity, but limited area and no “self-cleaning” • Due to “libration points” (points of stable drift orbit), GEO satellites tend to concentrate at 75° east and 105° west longitude if not maintained • ~1,000 tracked objects in GEO, and many more untracked • ~175 tracked objects “trapped” at libration points

7. Insured Values in GEOIn 10° increments, as of June 1, 2009 ($ millions) Asia/Pacific Americas EMEA L L L = location of libration points (positions of stable drift orbit)

8. Who’s Doing What? • NASA, ESA – developing guidelines and policy • IADC – inter-governmental co-ordination • UN COPUOS – treaty oversight • USSTRATCOM/JSPOC – tracking objects • Launch vehicle and satellite operators – refining operational procedures • Technical services companies – developing tracking and analysis tools • FAA AST/COMSTAC – investigating effects on commercial space

9. Space Law and Debris Issues • International space treaties were developed in the ’60s and ’70s, when governments dominated space activity • Saw liability as a citizen of one state being injured by the space activity of another state, and resolving liability issues through diplomatic channels (i.e., state-to-state claims) • Space activity is now heavily commercial • Space treaties facilitate resolution of disputes over liability, but no obligation to go via convention • Issues in the event of a collision between two objects • Determination of cause and proof of liability are difficult • If purchased, first party insurance would typically cover the owner of a damaged satellite for the asset (subject to policy terms) • Loss of revenue, consequential loss, incidental damages, loss of market might be recoverable through other party’s TPL insurance

10. Q&A • Thank you!