1 / 8

Intra-Hour Wind Forecasting for ERCOT: AWS Data Evaluation

Evaluation of AWS 5-min wind forecasts for ERCOT regions with MAE analysis & large wind ramp events. Next step: integration into GTBD for SCED dispatch optimization. PWDRR calculation improves 5-min predictions.

cervantez
Download Presentation

Intra-Hour Wind Forecasting for ERCOT: AWS Data Evaluation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 5-min Intra-hour Wind Forecasting Mago Nitika ERCOT

  2. Background & Data Sets • AWS started to deliver intra-hour 5-min wind forecast to ERCOT for the ERCOT total and five wind regions • Data from 04/07/2018 to 05/07/2018 used for the performance evaluation

  3. 5-min Wind Forecast in MAE (Mean Absolute Error)

  4. 5-min-ahead Wind Forecast Error

  5. 5-min-ahead Wind Forecast Error for Large Wind Ramp-up Events* *> 100 MW/5 minutes

  6. 5-min-ahead Wind Forecast Error for Large Wind Ramp-down Events** **< -100 MW/5 minutes

  7. Next Step for Integration of Intra-hour Wind Forecast • Integrate into Generation To Be Dispatched (GTBD) calculation • The next 5-min Forecast can be integrated into GTBD to ensure SCED dispatch will preposition non-Wind units to offset the expected change in wind generation in the next 5-min Generation To Be Dispatched = Total Gen + K1*10*System Load Frequency Bias + K2*[(net non-conforming Load) – (net filtered non-conforming Load)] + K3*5*PLDRR + K4*Regulation Deployed + K5*ACE Integral + K6*PWDRR *The predicted wind ramp (PWDRR) is calculated from the intra-hour wind forecast separately in 1 minute granularity. This number will then be multiplied by 5 to capture the projected 5 minute wind ramp for the purpose of 5 minute SCED dispatch.

  8. Divider Slide Divider Slide (optional) Questions?

More Related