A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS

1. A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS Slobodan P. Simonović Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The University of Western Ontario London, Ontario, Canada

2. 2| WEF Modelling Conclusions • WEF nexus • New challenges • High level of integration • High level of complexity • Common concerns • Systems approach • Modelling of the whole system • System dynamics simulation (and optimization) • Modelling of various scales • Global • Regional • …. • ANEMI model example Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

3. 3| WEF Modelling Outline • Challenges of the new/old context • Integration • Systems approach • Example • ANEMI model • Lessons learned • Conclusions Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

4. 4| WEF Context Definitions • Nexus? • A center point of something! • A center of various connections! • Water, energy and food – pillars of global security, prosperity and equity • Perspectives • Water perspective – food and energy systems are users of resources • Food perspective – water and energy are inputs • Energy perspective – water is the input and food is the output • Vast individual areas • Policy and regulations often create sub-optimal solutions Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

5. 5| WEF Context Challenges • Water-Energy-Food common concerns • Access to services • Environmental impacts • Price volatility • Growing population • Poverty • Health • Climate change • Mitigation – energy • Adaptation – land and water • Management • Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency • Study of the whole complex system • Understanding interactions – it is all about feedbacks • Scale • 1.4 billion people without access to electricity • 3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating • 900 million people without access to safe drinking water • 2.6 billion do not have sanitation • 900 million people are chronically hungry • 2 billion people lack food security Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

6. 7| WEF Modelling Systems approach • Consideration of all three areas together • Systems view • Complexity • Whole system approach • Difficult to translate into government policy making processes • System structure • Feedbacks • System behavior Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

7. 8| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI • NSERC Discovery Grant (2005 – 2007) ANEMI ver 1 • NSERC Strategic Grant (2007 – 2011) ANEMI ver 2 • Project objectives • To develop system dynamics-based model of society-biosphere-climate system • To provide support for communication between the science and policy communities. • To examine the effects of climate change on socio-economic and environmental sustainability through the model outputs. • Interdisciplinary team • Systems modelling – engineering • Climate policy – geography and political science • Economics – economics • Partners • Environment Canada • Natural Resources Canada • Department of Finance • Department of Fisheries and Oceans • Department of Agriculture Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

8. 9| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI • Selection of the methodological approach • First workshop • ANEMI model development • Structure • Sectors • Preliminary results • Identification of key issues • Communication with the project collaborators • Selection of simulation scenarios • Second workshop • ANEMI model expansion • Economy-energy integration • Model regionalization • Model use • Scenario analyses • Model limitations • Third workshop • Model transfer • Future work Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

9. Land Use Emissions Atmospheric CO2 Emission Index Arable Land Pollution Index Industrial emission Per capita food Agricultural allocation Clearing and Burning Consumption and Labour Temperature Water use efficiency GDP per capita Fertility Water use Intensity Water Stress Water Quality Wastewater Reuse Water Demand Wastewater Treatment Water Consumption Surface Water Availability Wastewater Treatment and Reuse Water Stress Temperature Population Surface Flow 10| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI • Carbon cycle • Climate • Water Use • Water Quality • Surface Flow • Population • Land Use • Food Production • Energy-Economy + Carbon + + - + Food Production Land Use + + Temperature + + − Energy-Economy + Climate + + - − + - - - + + − + − Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović +

10. 11| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Stock and flow diagrams Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

11. 12| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI - Equations • Available water resources • Two stocks (oceans and land surface) • Flows (evaporation, evapotranspiration, advection, precipitation, • snow and ice melt, percolation, ocean runoff) Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

12. 13| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Simulation & optimization Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

13. 14| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – global and regional • Global model • Regional model – Canada and rest-of-the-world (ROW) Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

14. 15| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – policy scenarios • Policy communication process • Set of interviews • Identification of policy questions by the research team • Identification of scenarios • Initial set of scenarios • Carbon pricing • Economic growth rate • Water pricing • North American water stress • Irrigation • Energy subsidies and pricing • Land use change • Final choice • Carbon tax • Increased water use • Food production increase Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

15. 16| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Carbon tax scenario (global) Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

16. 17| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Increased water use scenario (global) Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

17. 18| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Increased food production scenario (global) Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

18. 19| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – conclusions • WEF nexus • New challenges • High level of integration • High level of complexity • Common concerns • Systems approach • Modelling of the whole system • System dynamics simulation (and optimization) • Modelling of various scales • Global • Regional • …. • ANEMI model example Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

19. 20| WEF Modelling Resources • Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006). “Are we modeling impacts of climate change properly?”, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp.431-433. • Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic Model. Water Resources Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2712-1; (online) 978-0-7714-2713-8. • Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010). “ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change”, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change, 11(2/3):127-161. • M. KhaledAkhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 211 pagesISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2896-8; (online) 978-0-7714-2903-3. • Davise, E.G.R. and S.P. Simonovic (2011). “(2011) “Water Resources and Integrated Assessment Modeling – the ANEMI Model”, Advances in Water Resources (available online: 18 February 2011), 34:684-700. • www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fids Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović