National Security and Climate Change

1. National Security and Climate Change POC: Dr. Larry J. Paxton Head: Geospace and Earth Sciences larry.paxton@jhuapl.edu 240.228.6871 Bill Swartz, Maegen Nix, Bob Schaefer, Glen Fountain, Shay Strong, Michele Weiss, Steve Babin

2. Addressing Critical Challenges • The Applied Physics Laboratory is a division of The Johns Hopkins University • About 5800 people at APL • Space Department (about 750 people) • Civilian Space and National Security Space • Programs encompass space segment from cubesats to large spacecraft and basic to applied research • Student involvement • Academia, industry, DoD, and national security activities • GAIA is a cross cutting initiative that addresses the intersection of weather, long-term weather, and security • Tools range from cost effective knowledge access to collaborative analysis (including games and scenarios) to modeling and simulations and social network analysis • School of Public Health • School for Advanced International Studies • School of Business • College of Engineering • College of Arts and Sciences (Earth and Planetary Sciences)

3. Climate Disruption is a Global Threat to the Security of Nations • How do we communicate this idea? • What does security mean? • What are some of the issues that fall within that realm? • What is the role of climate disruption? • How do we plan for the future? • What does the future look like? • What are the tools for developing adaptation, mitigation, and response strategies? • Why should you listen to this? • We need to reinvigorate our R&D environment – to do that we have to cast what we do in a way that people can support.

4. Research Must Appeal to (Other) Human Needs • Communication is a key challenge facing research (climate prediction) activities • Why? • What? When? Where? How? Maslow’s hierarchy of needs from Wikipedia

5. Research Must Appeal to (Other) Human Needs • We seek perfection in our knowledge but at what point will our ability to “predict” the future climate be determined by our inability to predict human action more than by our lack of specificity in the initial conditions? Need for the science of climate Need for actionable climate knowledge

6. What is “national security”? • War is typically regarded in terms of “force on force” conflict. • Clausewitz:” an act of violence to compel the enemy to do our will” • Peace of Westphalia (1684) defined the concept of the sovereign state as the vehicle of interaction in a conflict • Asymmetric, irregular or unrestricted warfare uses subversion, insurgency, terror, etc • Limited means to counter this as “force on force” • Information/knowledge axis becomes an important component • Security could be taken to mean the ability to prevent/survive/win a war. • This is too limiting. • National security embodies the means by which a state is free to act without being dictated to or coerced by an outside influence.

7. We Must Transform What We Do and How We Do It • The challenge is to transform basic and applied research in science, public health, and policy into the tools needed to plan for, assess the risk of, adapt to, and mitigate the long- and near-term impacts of the environment on national security – and “make it stick”. Food price index and riots (death toll) In Physics and Society Report number: NECSI 2011-07-01

8. Why? Climate Disruption Impacts Security • Daniel Deudney “The case against linking environmental degradation and national security” J. Int. Studies 19, 461-476, 1990. • Useful description of why one might think we don’t have to worry about climate change • Not an adequate description of the current world dynamic • Traditional force-on-force view • Asymmetric threats can, however, bring about rewards • Failed nation states exhibit sensitivity to climate perturbations including lack of resilience Failed States according to the "Failed States Index" of Foreign Policy from wikipedia

9. Food is an Important Element of Diplomacy as is an Asymmetric Threat

10. Warmer global mean temperatures produce more extreme weather

11. (Urban) Water Security Issues are Complex and Extend Beyond the Urban Environment • Local issues • Sewerage • Water for domestic uses • Industry • Power generation • Recreation • Tourism • Psychological feeling of well-being • Emergency management • Flood control/erosion • Broader issues • Social/environmental justice • Economic competitiveness • Habitat protection • Erosion/flood control • Energy costs • Policy/legal/compliance • Water quality • Health and safety Water availability is tied to energy use for pumping and sanitation as well as the continuity of infrastructure

12. Causes and effects Climate change, land use change, population growth, energy costs Temperature, precipitation amount and timing, land surface quality, pollution sources (agriculture, urban pollution) Floods, droughts, excessive runoff, dead zones, pathogens, invasive species, revenue loss, aquifer depletion, saltwater intrusion Cost, quality of life, national stability

13. Climate Disruption Couples to the Stability of States • Interstate violence from internal turmoil • Counterbalances: Sustainability, growth and security • Social media may promote social/religious/ethnic strife, migration, abets criminal activity • Access and control of natural resources • Counterbalances: Trade, conquest is expensive, technology enables adjustment • Water and energy scarcity are new elements – driven by population dynamics, social media, and economics Source: United Nations Environmental Program Credit: Alyson Hurt/NPR

14. In a Flat World no Impacts are Local • Trans-border impacts are becoming both recognizable and attributable • Spread of disease • Pollution (air/water/coastal environment) • Dust from farming practices • Runoff leading to silt/sediment • Fisheries contention • Aquifers and basins • Geo-engineering • Global competition for resources • Trade in “virtual water” Dust blown from China over the Korean peninsula and Japan.

15. Climate change will affect water security Rain-fed agriculture “hotspots” Availability of water in Africa is driven by many factors in addition to rainfall and topography. Poverty, lack of planning, urbanization and population growth are strong drivers. Much of the available water is also contaminated due to infrastructure and public health issues.

16. Climate change will affect water security Rain-fed agriculture “hotspots”

17. Food Security and Water • The watershed basin of Lake Chad makes up just over eight per cent of the surface area of Africa, and falls across the boundaries of eight countries • Nigeria has one quarter of the population of Africa • Migration and radicalization of the urban and rural population (potentially enabled by social media) may have far-reaching consequences.

18. A Key Element in Decision Making is Understanding Risk • Both DSB Task Force report and NRC report America’s Climate Choices call attention to long tail events and to tipping points. • A prudent course is to consider • more extensive monitoring • Investigating non-linear interactions among system elements • And examining cost/benefit of addressing the “long tail” events From Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security, 2011, pg 133.

19. Precipitation Extremes Impact Operations • Military training, infrastructure and operations are impacted by weather. • Weather extremes impact designs and performance of humans and systems • 2011 was the 2nd wettest year over land on record since 1900 • 2010 was the wettest. • Drier than average conditions were widespread across much of French Polynesia, the Solomon Islands, Hawaiian Islands, northwestern Canada, and southwestern China. • The wettest regions included much of Central America, Micronesia, northern Brazil, and the northeastern U.S.

20. Precipitation Extremes Impact Operations • Military training, infrastructure and operations are impacted by weather. • Weather extremes impact designs and performance of humans and systems • 2011 was the 2nd wettest year over land on record since 1900 • 2010 was the wettest. • Drier than average conditions were widespread across much of French Polynesia, the Solomon Islands, Hawaiian Islands, northwestern Canada, and southwestern China. • The wettest regions included much of Central America, Micronesia, northern Brazil, and the northeastern U.S.

21. Tipping Point Drivers are Global

22. When a “Tipping Point” is Triggered Depends on the Temperature Trajectory

23. Changes in Arctic Ice will lead to an enhanced HA/DR and security role for the Navy. Impact of collapse of the food web on ecology and native peoples Transiting vessels Resource contention and protection Methane hydrate mining and/or release US Navy Arctic Operations ACIA. 2004. Impacts of Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Fetterer, F., and K. Knowles. 2002, updated 2004. Sea ice index. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media. (ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/ Accessed October 2007) from UNEP/GRID-Arendal

24. Food and water security are driven by social factors and weather • In addition to the “linear” impacts of population growth there are other factors that may have non-linear consequences. • Energy costs • Climate disruption • Water security is tied to the stability of nations through food security, trade, public health, economic stability, energy costs, and more Our “science focus” seldom includes the coupling of the human factors to the environment. Human-experienced timescales are “weather timescales”

25. How do you understand this system? • The system is inherent complex and it may be chaotic. • Characterized by quasi-stable conditions that are persistent in the face of small perturbations. • Relatively small differences in initial conditions may lead to large changes in the final state • We expect science to provide “predictions” on the macro-scale • But our daily lives and none of the systems that we deal with are predictable • We act as though systems are predictable • Past behavior is usually a reasonable guide to future performance • We need to construct a system in which we can account for uncertainty without refusing to accept that it may guide our preparation for a future

26. Adaptation must cover a broad spectrum of consequences and effects • The challenge is to address basic needs under internal and external stress • Resiliency through • Water and food security • Public health • Energy availability and affordability • Internal physical security • Disaster recovery capability – internally or externally supplied • Human security • Dislocation of the people • Internal or external • Conflict • Armed or economic • Political continuity • Continuity of governance (rule of law) • Economic viability • Growth of number of failed/failing nation states and their impact on others

27. Climate Adaptation and Behavior • Psychology plays a significant role in climate adaptation. • Sub-optimal climate adaptation decisions may result when: • Individuals misperceive risk, or • Institutional structures encourage maladaptive action • Discounting of consequences Model of cognitive process for adaptation (Adapted from Grothmann and Patt, 2005)

28. “National Security” is Intended Secure the Survival of the State • Currently and for the near-term future the US has overwhelming conventional military might • Competition arises between nation states • Competitors will focus on non-military instruments of power • Sun Tzu: “the acme of skill is defeating the enemy without fighting” • DIMEFIL – codifies the instruments of the state power • Diplomacy • Information • Military • Economic • Financial • Intelligence • Legal/Law Enforcement • PMESII reflects how Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure and Information systems within a particular unit are influenced by state power • When we talk about the impact of changes in average weather (climate disruption) we can frame the impact in these terms and view our ability to respond in this context as well. • To connect to the users “climate studies” have to be connected to impacts and/or the ability to act.

29. Gaming Decisions Reflect Real Life Without Predicting the Future • What kind of decisions are made? • Which actions to take, to what degree, and in what manner • With whom to ally, cooperate • Where to take actions • What drives the decisions? • Availability of resources • Strategy, projected efficacy of actions • Cooperation of local/regional actors • What is learned from the outcomes? • Stochastic element varies results • Unintended consequences – can you get “there” from “here”? • Potential second-order effects – non-linear coupling producing unexpected outcomes

30. Competitive Influence Game: Key Concepts and Components • Scenario – Provides background and objectives • Actors – Players represent key stakeholder decision makers • Non-playeractors (NPAs) – aggregated populations and communities • Resources – Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, Financial, Infrastructure, and Law Enforcement (DIMEFIL) points available to take actions • Characteristics – Hubris & Influence affect cooperation • Regions – Game map represents distinct areas, which have scores for their Political, Military (Law Enforcement), Economic, Social, Information & Infrastructure (PMESII) • Facilities – Potential ‘improvements’ on map: enablers, resource bonuses • Affinity – Represents how NPAs feel about all actors (+3 to -3 score) • Economics – Represents level of trade between actors (0 to 10)

31. Decision-Making and Risk-Assessment is a Coupled and On-going Process

32. R&D is Needed to Support Risk Assessment • Integrate social science into the problem space • The role of social media • Changing population dynamics • Identify the key vulnerabilities in our assessments as well as in our systems • Determine what drives the uncertainty in our predictions (inputs or responses) • Develop a risk monitoring mechanism for assessing key metrics and then insure that we have the means to monitor those traceable metrics • Provide an assess of the state of our understanding of the risks – not just the science • Strive to develop an “early warning system” for unexpected consequences of changes. • Move from disaster recovery to disaster amelioration • Change attitudes toward preparation

33. Where to Next? From Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security, 2011, pg 105.

34. Challenge: Develop and Implement an Integrated Decision Support Environment • The APL/GAIA systems approach works on large- and small-scale problems – leverages over 50 years of operations research as well as space activities • Talk by Dr. Bill Swartz Thursday afternoon • Examples include: • The role of energy supplies and costs on future Navy operations • Water and global security in South Asia • Changes in the Chesapeake Bay and the interplay between weather, climate and the economy • Public health, security and weather • GAIA is developing tools for educating decision makers and the public on the connection between national security and the environment. • http://gaia.jhuapl.edu GAIA supports multi-directional cross-disciplinary knowledge exchange