Acknowledgements

1. International Conference on Air Quality - Science and Application Istanbul, 24-27 March 2009 Special session “Air Quality Policy and Management” Regional Air Quality Plans: assessment of plan efficacy through integrated assessment modelling and other local models G. Vialetto1, G. Calori3, I. D’Elia1, M. Bencardino1, C. Contardi5, M. Contaldi4, F. Sordi5, P. Radice3, G. Truffo5, G. Arduino5, T. Pittini3, L. Ciancarella2, T. Pignatelli1 1 ENEA, National Agency for New technology, Energy and Environment, Via Anguillarese 301, 0123 S. Maria di Galeria (Rome) 2 ENEA, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129 Bologna 3 ARIANET, Via Gilino, 9, 20128 Milan 4 ISPRA, Via C. Pavese 313, 00144 Rome 5 Piemonte Region, Environment Directorate, Via Principe Amedeo 17, 10123 Turin Introduction and Backgrounds The assessment of regional air quality plans is a very complex task, implying combined use of different information sources and expertise. Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM), combined with regional (local) models, can be helpful to this purpose. For this study, the National Integrated Assessment Model MINNI, and in particular the RAINS-Italy Model, a national version of the RAINS-Europe Model, was used in combination with the local modelling system of the Piemonte Region, which comprises detailed emissions inventory, estimated according to the European methodology, and an atmospheric modelling system, with 4km x 4km spatial resolution. Scope The aim of this study is to test a methodology to assess Regional Air Quality Plans, exploring the potential of the combined use of national and sub-national modelling systems, using the Piemonte Region as a case study. Modelling the Piemonte Regional Air Quality Plan (RAQP) Emission scenario for Piemonte Region was elaborated with RAINS-Italy. Such scenario is based upon current and future projections of activity levels, scaled down from national data by means of proxy variables, where the measures pertaining to the Current LEgislation (CLE) are assumed to be included, only. An harmonization process, for each pollutant, between the 2000 Emission Inventory and the RAINS-Italy calculation at the same year was developed (see picture on the left). The measures envisaged by the Regional Air Quality Plans & Programs was introduced on top of CLE, to generate the Air Quality (AQ) emission scenarios. In developing these scenarios, the “translation” of policy measures, quantitatively, in form of numerical variables, as input to the model, is the most delicate phase, especially when dealing with non-technical reduction measures (e.g. infra-structure measures). (In the picture on the right the AQ scenario for NOx). Emission reductions (in %), total and by sector, at 2010, due to implementation of further measures, by the Piemonte Region, on top of CLE scenario is shown in the picture on the left. For the purposes of the regional modelling system, the trends of CLE emission scenario, from RAINS-Italy, are then used for “driving” the 2005 Regional inventory emissions (IREA) projections over time. RAQP measures have been also implemented in the IREA, consistently, as much as possible, with the assumptions made in RAINS-Italy calculations. The effects on regional air quality, of the emissions reductions expected at 2010, due to all the RAQP measures fully implemented, have been quantified by entering spatialized emissions as input to the regional atmospheric modelling system. The simulations have involved both CLE and AQ scenarios, and the results have been compared with the reference case (2005). As an example on the right, the effects on annual average concentrations of NO2 (left) and PM10 (right) of RAQP reduction measures. Percentage changes with respect the CLE scenario, at 2010. Location of Piemonte in NW Italy is shown in the left panel (square window). Acknowledgements The work has been carried out with the sponsorship of the Italian Ministry for the Environment, the Land and the Sea and the Piemonte Region Authority. Meteorological fields for regional-scale analyses have been provided by the Regional Environmental Protection Agency (ARPA) of Piemonte.