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2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits

2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits. Presentation to COMSTAC May 19, 2010. Contents and Purpose. Contents of the 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)

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2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits

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  1. 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Presentation to COMSTAC May 19, 2010

  2. Contents and Purpose • Contents of the 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) • Developed by the FAA/AST with help from the Futron Corporation • Projects global commercial launch demand for 2010-2019 • All nongeosynchronous orbits including • Low Earth orbit • Medium Earth orbit • Elliptical orbits • External orbits such as to the Moon or other solar system destinations • Commercial definition: • Internationally competed launches • Licensed by the FAA/AST • Purpose of the NGSO forecast • To help the FAA/AST plan for its commercial launch licensing and promotional role • To raise public awareness of the scope and trajectory of commercial spaceflight demand

  3. Basic Methodology • This report is based on research and discussions with: • Industry including: • Satellite service providers • Satellite manufacturers • Launch service providers • Government offices • Independent analysts • The forecast tracks progress for publicly-announced satellites and considers a number of factors, some examples: • Financing • Regulatory developments • Spacecraft manufacturing and launch services contracts • Investor confidence • Competition from space and terrestrial sectors • Overall economic conditions

  4. Commercial NGSO Launch Industry Map

  5. Satellite and Launch Demand Total Satellites: 262 Total Launches: 119 • Demand Drivers • Large deployments of telecommunications constellations • A steady demand for launch of international science and other satellites • The new and promising sector of orbital facility assembly and services • A small but steady launch demand for commercial remote sensing satellites

  6. Historical vs. Forecasted Launches

  7. 2009 vs. 2010 Forecasts • Primary changes in market demand: • Delayed timetables for deploying large telecommunications constellations. • Large constellation deployment plans that leverage a greater number of launches than expected (ORBCOMM); or fewer (Iridium) • Delay in the initial NASA COTS demonstration flights and the extension of ISS CRS beyond 2016 also contributed to the difference.

  8. International Science and Other Launch History and Forecast • Characteristics • Stable scientific demand from national space programs • Largest source of demand for small launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) • Four launches per year average during forecast period

  9. Commercial Remote Sensing Launch History and Forecast • Characteristics • Growing demand for commercial remote sensing products • Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) • Demand for under two launches per year average during forecast period

  10. TelecommunicationsLaunch History and Forecast • Characteristics • Large deployments of telecommunications constellations • Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) • Majority of demand occurs in the first five years of the forecast, followed by minimal demand between cycles

  11. OFAS Launch History and Forecast • Characteristics • NASA Commercial Resupply Services contracts provide a foundation of demand • Demand for four launches per year average during forecast period • Successful development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could unlock increased launch demand in this sector

  12. Emerging Markets That Could Impact Future Demand • Commercial Human Orbital Spaceflight • Development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could generate new launch demand and possibly lead to the deployment of private space stations that require a large number of human and cargo supply flights. • Potential demand from NASA, Bigelow, Excalibur, etc. • Orbital Microsatellite Launch • The emergence of a low-cost, reliable microsatellite launch vehicle may increase launch demand as satellite operators would likely move away from multi-manifesting to dedicated microsatellite launch systems. • Exploration and Technology Demonstration • Lunar exploration, science, and development may be spurred by private space competitions and government use of commercial launch system.

  13. Uncertainty • Fourteen sources of certainty examined, examples: • Financial uncertainty: • U.S. national and global economy • Investor confidence • Corporate mergers • Terrestrial competition • Political Uncertainty: • Policy and regulations • Increase/decrease in government purchase of commercial satellite services • Government missions open/closed to commercial launch competition • Technical Uncertainty: • Launch failure • Satellite manufacturing delay • Satellite failure in orbit • Introduction of innovative/disruptive technology

  14. End • Questions?

  15. Backup – Launch Demand by Mass Class

  16. Backup – Forecast Comparisons

  17. Backup – Average vs. Maximum Launches per Forecast

  18. Backup - Supporting Data

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