2008 Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

1. Federal Aviation Administration 2008 Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial Space Transportation Forecast John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation May 16, 2008

2. Introduction • The FAA Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement, other commercially sponsored payloads and commercially competed launch services for the International Space Station. • Payloads that generate launch demand; not secondaries • Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches

3. New to the 2008 NGSO Forecast • Iridium 72 satellites (66 plus 6 spares), 12 total launches • Current revenue is good, picking up some Globalstar customers, potentially more revenue from hosted payloads, and will select a satellite manufacturer in Spring 2009. • New category: Orbital Facility Assembly and Services (OFAS) • Regular commercial supply flights for the International Space Station • Estimate based on: two launch providers, upmass capability of SpaceX’s Dragon and Orbital Sciences’ Cygnus, and the upmass model in the April 2008 NASA Request for Proposals document. • Starts at 2, increasing to 4-5 launches per year • COTS demonstration launches • Bigelow Aerospace placeholder • Bigelow will wait for a commercial vehicle capable of carrying people to orbit before launches of habitable modules. • Could appear in a future forecast for launches of: • Modules: Sundancer, a node/bus, and two BA-330 habitats • Supply misions

4. Satellite Forecast NGSO 276 total satellites, increase of 45% vs. 2007 forecast of 191 Telecommunications is 53% of satellite market, Science/Other is 28%, Orbital Facility Assembly and Services is 10%, and Commercial Remote Sensing 9%.

5. Launch Demand Forecast NGSO 112 launches Increase of 38% compared to 2007 forecast vs. 81 in 2007 vs. 69 in 2006 vs. 64 in 2005 vs. 51 in 2004 • Average increase of 3 launches per year vs 2007 forecast (from 8 to 11) • All new launches were Medium-Heavy class (8.1 per year) • No new small launches in 2008 compared to 2007 (still 3 per year)

6. Sector Breakout Telecommunications is half the market (148 satellites) but only 21.5% of the launch demand – multiple-manifesting. Science is the only sector to decline from 2007: 44 launches in 2008 vs. 52 launches in 2007 -- mostly because of transfer of COTS launches into new OFAS category OFAS schedule could change based on contract selection and technical readiness.

7. Mass Distribution for Near-Term Satellites • Iridium Next satellite mass is to be determined • First generation satellites weigh 640 kg each • Could launch 6 satellites at a time (72 total satellites) • ORBCOMM Generation 2 mass estimate 130-150 kg each • Could launch 6 satellites at a time (order of 18 satellites, up to 48 total)

8. NGSO Near-Term Identified Manifest

9. Notes and Trends • Russia still leads with about 63% capture of the near-term NGSO launch services market (2008-2011). • Environmental first stage debris concerns cited by Uzbekistan have delayed Russian Dnepr launch of Thailand’s THEOS remote sensing satellite. • Dnepr could relocate back to Baikonur from Yasny (Domborovsky) launch site. • Only one delayed launch from 2007 did not carryover into 2008. • South Africa’s SumbandillaSat was on Russian Shtil. • South Korea plans first launch of KSLV small vehicle by end of 2008. • European Satellite Radio added to forecast. • Has been developing slowly, Ondas Media (based in Madrid) leads competition. • Impact of possible XM and Sirius satellite radio merger is unclear so the forecast leaves previous Sirius NGSO plans in place. • No new telecommunications systems to compete against ORBCOMM, Iridium and Globalstar.

10. Historical Launches and Forecast 2008-2017 Sustained out-year activity in 2008 forecast