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2007 Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

Federal Aviation Administration. 2007 Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial Space Transportation Forecast. John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation john.sloan@faa.gov May 18, 2007 . Introduction. Worldwide Commercial Launches.

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2007 Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

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  1. Federal Aviation Administration 2007 Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial Space Transportation Forecast John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation john.sloan@faa.gov May 18, 2007

  2. Introduction Worldwide Commercial Launches • The Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads • Payloads that generate launch demand; not secondaries • Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches

  3. New to the NGSO 2007-2016 Forecast • Globalstar’s next generation constellation • No launch vehicles selected yet, evaluating 6 to 8 satellites per launch • In a hurry to deploy next generation in addition to two launches in 2007 • A Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing by Globalstar warned of a possible worst-case scenario: the current constellation could be unable to complete telephone calls in 2008 because of S-band antenna difficulties • Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program • Demonstration launches for NASA by SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler 2008-2010 • Boeing’s Delta II has new launches of Italy’s Cosmo-Skymed satellites • Small increase in number of technology demonstration spacecraft • Financial conditions have been positive in the past 12 months, especially for satellite telecommunications

  4. NGSO Satellite Forecast 191 total satellites compared to 160 in 2006 Increase of 19 % • 2007-2016 By Sector • 48% International • Science/Other • 42% Telecommunications • 81 satellites vs. 43 • last year; the largest • growth sector • 10% Commercial Remote • Sensing

  5. NGSO Launch Demand Forecast 81 total launches compared to 69 in 2006 Increase of 17 % • Average of 8.1 Launches Per Year • 4.9 Medium-Heavy Vehicles • Increase of over one per year • compared to 2006 forecast • 3.2 Small Launch Vehicles • 2007-2016 Launches By Sector • 52 Launches International • Science/Other • 14 Launches Telecommunications • 15 Launches Commercial • Remote Sensing

  6. Satellite and Launch Breakout • Globalstar has 56 satellites in the forecast • ORBCOMM has 25 satellites • Too early to forecast Iridium next generation schedule (starting 2013-2014?) • More Commercial Remote Sensing satellites are in the near term • Visibility into the market fades about four to five years ahead

  7. Mass Breakout NGSO • The 601 - 1200 kg class had only 13 satellites or 15% of • the total mass in the 2006 near-term forecast. • Globalstar second generation (2009-2010) will be heavier than • first generation (2007)

  8. Near-Term Identified Manifest

  9. Large Number of Launches in the Near Term • There are 17 launches scheduled in 2007 and 13 each in 2008 and 2009. • Only 5 of 13 projected launches actually launched in 2006 • Delays in funding, new satellite and launch vehicle development, and a Dnepr launch failure • All 8 launches carried over into 2007 • NGSO 2007 forecast again contains uncertainty for the near term • Gap between the demand for launches and actual launch rates • Instead of changing the methodology used by all previous forecasts, a “realization factor” has been adopted for the current year as an additional marker. • FAA realization of 10 to 13 launches for 2007

  10. Financial Trends • A lot of good news about finance • Favorable investment terms • Driven by an overall increase in global private equity investments • During the 1990s (ORBCOMM, Globalstar, and Iridium), the primary investors were satellite manufacturers • Healthy economy • Investors are looking broadly at telecommunications to include the NGSO sector despite previous bankruptcies • Other factors include: • Increased number of subscribers for NGSO telecom systems • Handsets have increased in capability while decreasing in size • Lower prices for services • Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) have been successful • ORBCOMM and Globalstar each raised over $100 million in 2006 • However, FCC has little activity regarding new NGSO license applicants

  11. Launch Trends • U.S. launch market share has increased to about 40% of the near-term identified market while Russia has 57% • In recent forecasts, Russia held about 80% of the market • Increase in U.S.-built vehicles comes from: • COTS program launches with private co-funding • Delta 2 Cosmo-Skymed launches • Additional SpaceX launches • Launch vehicles for Globalstar and ORBCOMM to be determined • International market diversity continues • Only 10 of 37 identified launches from 2007-2010 have the satellite owner/operator launching on a vehicle from their home country • Mostly because of lower-priced Russian vehicles

  12. Summary • Demand for an average of 8.1 worldwide commercial NGSO launches per year • Based on projection of 191 satellites seeking launch services over the next 10 years • Launch demand increase of 17% compared to the 2006 forecast • More telecommunications and technology demonstration spacecraft in the forecast • Relatively healthy forecast in the near term

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