1 / 16

Attila Varga University of Pécs , Hungary

Economic impact evaluation challenges posed by the new European Union Cohesion policy: The case of the GMR-approach. Attila Varga University of Pécs , Hungary. Outline. Introduction The New Cohesion Policy and economic impact evaluation challenges The GMR approach Policy simulations

chandler-wiley
Download Presentation

Attila Varga University of Pécs , Hungary

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Economic impact evaluation challenges posed by the new European Union Cohesion policy:The case of the GMR-approach Attila Varga University of Pécs, Hungary

  2. Outline • Introduction • The New Cohesion Policy and economic impact evaluation challenges • The GMR approach • Policy simulations • Conclusions

  3. Introduction • Project level vs. economic evaluation – the need for economic models • Cohesion Policy: regional development vs. monetary transfers • Smart growth, inclusive growth, sustainable growth • Place-based approach: Smart specialization • Challenges for economic impact evaluation

  4. Challenges in economic impact evaluation • Place-based approach to economic development • “smart specialization” • In target: place-specific industrial comparative advantages • integrated policy instruments (human capital, R&D, entrepreneurship) • multi-level governance • Participation (industry, universities, local organizations)

  5. Challenges in economic impact evaluation • Regional features determining the growth effects of development policies: • Local specificities (industrial structure, research specialization, factor endowment) • Cumulative agglomeration effects • Additional impacts (Keynesian demand effects, intersectoral linkages) • Interrregional impacts (spillovers, trade, migration)

  6. Challenges in economic impact evaluation • The macroeconomic dimension: selection of projects/regions – on what basis? • Same budget – diff results: depending on the instrumental distribution (ref. to the first simulation) • Same budget – diff results: depending on the regionaldistribution (ref. to the second simulation) • Need for macro level representation (costs/benefits, macroeconomic framework conditions)

  7. Challenges in economic impact evaluation • Representation of both: • Macroeconomic dimension: costs and benefits • Regional dimension: local specificities affecting policy needs and policy effectiveness

  8. Challenges in economic impact evaluation • Search for new impact modeling approaches: • MASST (Capello-Fratesi 2013) • GMR-type models • GMR-Hungary, GMR-Europe(Varga et al. 2010, 2013) • RHOMOLO (Brandsma et al. 2012)

  9. The GMR (Geographic Macro and Regional) impact modeling approach

  10. The GMR approach: Model versions and applications • Antecedents and model versions: • Links to theory: Acs-Varga 2002 • Empirical modeling framework (Varga 2006) • The EcoRet model (Schalk, Varga 2004, Varga, Schalk 2004) • GMR-Hungary: (Varga, Schalk, Koike, Járosi,Tavasszy 2008) • GMR-EU (Varga, Járosi, Sebestyén2011; Varga,Törma 2011) • GMR-HUNGARY II (Varga, Járosi, Sebestyén, 2013)

  11. The GMR approach: Model versions and applications • Applications: • Cohesion Policy impact studies for the Hungarian government (2003- ) • Cohesion Policy impact studies for the European Commission (DG Regio - 2011) • FP6 impact study (2010)

  12. The GMR- Europe model (163 EU NUTS 2 regions and the EU level) includes: • a regional Knowledge Production Function (KPF)sub-model (163 NUTS 2 regions) • a regional Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE)sub-model (163 NUTS 2 regions) • a macro(EU level) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)sub-model (Quest III)

More Related