Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change

1. Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress 14 June 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp. http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

2. Topics... • JAWS • JAWES • T • STEW • WEST • WEB • E-Commerce • Scalability • Telepresence

3. Web…a small Cyberspace island

4. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! Body Continent Car Region/ Intranet Home Campus, including SANs World Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

5. “Everything will be in Cyberspace” • Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or • Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them • Infrastructure supports the content • Three evolutionary dimensions

6. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information • Coupling to all information and information processors • Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video • Bit tokens e.g. money, stock • State of: places, things, and people • State of: physical networks

7. Atoms vs Electrons for bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) people know computers know bricks & mortar anywhere (personnel/clients) office hours anytime database & reports web access for review and transactions letter & fax email & web access phone email, voice & video mail personal visits videophone / videomail signature authenticated images envelopes digital envelopes / store

8. By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1KBet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

9. Why this is the keystone bet! • It determines the market • for networks • for access devices… especially PCs • It says something about the utility • commerce • communication • entertainment • Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables • phones • videophones • television • serendipity

10. Internetters growth 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 World Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per year Internet Growthextrapolated at 98% per year ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

11. Internetters growth World Population 10000 1000 100 10 TVs & Phones “1 Gp by 2000”Negroponte PCs Internetters ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

12. WWW books, newspapers Infoway regulation Infoway promise: “how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.) Infoway addiction conferences lawsuits Growth in hype Data from Gordon’s WAG

13. actual commerce articles about risk and NOT doing commerce pornography, crime, FUD, etc. articles Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M) Data from Gordon’s WAG

14. Programs, Content & messages Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Cyberization Communication

15. Data Telephony Television Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020?

16. CIO Challenge… how to manage Cyberspace?

17. Visibility is Required for Every Part of the System! New & in-house custom applications SAP, PeopleSoft, BAAN, Oracle ERP Oracle, MS-SQL, SyBase, Informix Notes, Outlook, Netshow, File & Print SMTP, POP, Exchange, ccMail HTTP(s), DNS, FTP, Real, Pointcast

18. Managing the entire IT Enterprise: servers, apps, nets and clients … • Enterprise’s growing dependence upon apps for business processes and extended market reach … and especially E-commerce • Growing complexity of apps and • Growing “user” diversity including customers • No visibility into the user’s experience • The approach has to be to understand the system from the user’s perspective!

19. Client Based Passive Flow Analysis: End-to-end Path Visibility Applications Availability Transaction Time Transaction Health Server Client Network Routers & Switches Availability Congestion, Hop Count, Delay RTT (Round Trip Time) Route flutter, Packet loss Available Throughput Availability Load Delay Refused connections Availability PC Health Configuration Delay User Behavior Modem Phone Line

20. E- Commerce (and especially money… as atoms become bits)

21. PC or web access device is critical for growth

22. US Households on line

23. One million people will access the web via TV sets... Bet::At least one million users will access the web/internet via their television sets by the end of 2001. Via: phone line, 16%xDSL 19% cable modem 17% settop box/cable 39%not at all 9%

24. On line US Revenue

25. Real growth in commerce?

26. Who buys what on line in 2002?

27. Underlying Technologies • Merchant Servers • Microsoft • Open Market • SUN • iCat • Cyber Agencies • CKS • Organic • DoubleClick

28. Underlying Technologies • Incentive Systems (money surrogate) • Digital IQ - Coupons • Netcentives - Frequent Flyer Miles • Impulse Buy Network - Buyer’s Network • Narrative - Direct Response • Sweepstakes - Yoyodyne • e-Bay - Auctions • Cyber “Consumer Reports” • Junglee • Jango • NECX

29. Channels • More Cybermediaries - Bring Buyers and Sellers Together • Yahoo • FastParts, Inc. • Instill Corp • Consumer Magnets - Buyers With Useful Information link to Manufacturers & Service Providers • Auto-by-Tel • Get-Smart.com • Junglee • NECX

30. Predictions that will change your job • As Cybermediaries Gain Momentum - They could Control Buying Process • Existing Suppliers Risk Being Supplanted by Startups That Will Own the Internet channel • Example: Amazon.Com

31. Atoms represent “money”, ownership, … riskIT responsible for the infrastructure for a wide range of activities: advertising, selling, delivery, billing, support, etc. For many, the WEB is the Interface

32. New or old money… it’s just bits Credit ATM / Prepaid Check Cash Prepaid

33. Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!

34. Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? E-signatures are legal in GA

35. Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace

37. Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) money database, smart card, credit card, debit card statements web access bills / checks bill present. / check free coupons cyber-coupons stock database, web statements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc. private placements web access, email trade confirmation direct trades mail voting on line voting

38. ScalabilityUser-built Scalables aka Clusters are like nothing we’ve seen before...

39. Billions Of Clients • Every device will be “intelligent” • Doors, rooms, cars… • Computing will be ubiquitous

40. Not shown: ECG; GPS; Compass; altimeter PCS; Pilot Libretto, .5mm pencil Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

41. Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB

42. Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers • All clients networked to servers • May be nomadicor on-demand • Fast clients wantfaster servers • Servers provide • Shared Data • Control • Coordination • Communication Clients Mobileclients Fixedclients Servers Server Super server

43. Cluster: Shared What? • Shared Memory Multiprocessor • Multiple processors, one memory • all devices are local • DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN • Shared Disk Cluster • an array of nodes • all shared common disks • VAXcluster + Oracle • Shared Nothing Cluster • each device local to a node • ownership may change • Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack

44. SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms • Standard (I.e. commodity) platform • The SAN (System Area Network) standard makes the network ubiquitous … and great! • Common operating system for platform, reducing vendor and customer costs,and enables affordable, standard apps • Cluster technology • Apps are TRANPARENT!!!

45. SNAP Systems circa ­ 2000 Local & global data comm world Mobile Nets Legacy mainframe & minicomputer servers & terminals Portables Wide-area global ATM network A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment Person servers (PCs) ATM & Ethernet: to PC, workstation, & servers scalable computers built from PCs & SANs Telecomputers aka Internet Terminals ??? Centralized & departmental servers built from PCs TC=TV+PC home ... (CATV or ATM or satellite)

46. Scaling dimensions include: • reliability… including always up • number of nodes • most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane • highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node • location within a region or continent • time-scale I.e. machine generations

47. RIP FDDI RIP ATM RIP FC RIP SCI RIP ? RIP SCSI SAN: Standard Interconnect Gbps Ethernet: 110 MBps • LAN faster than memory bus? • 1 GBps links in lab. • 100$ port cost soon • Port is computer PCI: 70 MBps UW SCSI: 40 MBps FW SCSI: 20 MBps SCSI: 5 MBps

48. Basic Argument for x-Disks • Future disk controller is a super-computer. • 1 bips processor • 128 MB dram • 100 GB disk plus one arm • Connects to SAN via high-level protocols • RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,…. • Commands are RPCs • management, security,…. • Services file/web/db/… requests • Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev environment • Move apps to disk to save data movement • need programming environment in controller

49. People are buying computers by the dozens Computers only cost 1k$/slice! Clustering them together All God’s Children Have Clusters!Buying Computing By the Slice

50. “Commercial” NT Clusters • 16-node Tandem Cluster • 64 cpus • 2 TB of disk • Decision support • 45-node Compaq Cluster • 140 cpus • 14 GB DRAM • 4 TB RAID disk • OLTP (Debit Credit) • 1 B tpd (14 k tps)