1 / 71

: .., .. 6 2008 .

chandra
Download Presentation

: .., .. 6 2008 .

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

    2. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair and Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair Nairobi, 6 February 2007 http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

    6. Snow cover and Arctic sea ice are decreasing

    7. Glaciers and Frozen Ground

    8. ????????????? ????????????? ???????

    9. ????????????? ??????? (T. Slingo, 2002)

    10. ???? ?????????????? ????????????? ????????????? ??? ???????????? (???????? ? ???????? ???????), ??? ? ?????????? ????????????: ?????????????? (????????? ????, ?????????????? ?????-?????? ? ??.) ? ????????????? (???????????? ???? ?????????? ???????????? ????? ??? ??????? ???-????? ??? ??????????? ?????????) ??????? ????????????? ????????? ??????? ????????????? ? ??????? ???????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ??????: ??????????? ???????????????? ?????, ????????????? ???????, ??????????? ?????????? ????????? ??????? ?? ???????????? ??????, ????????? ????? ? ?????-????????????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? (Dymnikov and Filatov, 1997): ????? ????????????? ????????? ? ? ????? ????????? ?????? ???? ?????????????? ?????????????? ??????? ????????????? ???????, ????? ?? ???????????????? ? ????? ??????????? ??????? ??????????? ???? ??????? ? ???????????????? ???????? ????????????? ????????

    11. Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper,I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S.,D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

    13. ?????????????? ????????? ?? ??????????? ? ? ?????????? ???? ???? ???????????? ???????? (?????? ? ???????) ???????????? ???????? (?????? ????????, ?????? ? ???????? ?????, ???????? ????????, ?????? ? ?????? ??????? ????????????, ????????) ????????????? ?????, ???????? ? ????????????? ???????, ?????????? ???????? ?????????? ????????????? ??????? (??????? ???????? ???????) ?????????? ???????? ??????? ?????????? ????? ????????????? ???????? ??????? ???????? ????????????? ??????? ? ????? (??????? ??????)

    16. ???????????????? ??????????? ??????? ?????: ?????? ??? (????) ? ?????????? (???)

    19. ????????? ????????? ?????? ??????????? ?????????? ??????? ? ????? XXI ???? (??????????? ?? ?????? 2081-2100 ??.) ?? ????????? ? ??????? ??? ????? XX ???? (?????????? ?? 1981-2000 ??.) ?? ??????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????????? ?????????? ??? ??? ???????? A1B

    21. ?????????????? ? ??????????????

    22. ??????????

    23. ??????????????? ???????? ?? ??????????? ???? ????? ??????????? ?????? ????? ? ?????? ????? ????????? ????? - ?????? ?????????????? ?????? ? ????????? ? ????????? ??????? (Schr et al., 1999). ??????? ?????? ? ??????? ?? ???????? ? ????????????????? ??? ?? ??????????, ??? ? ?? ???????????? ????????? (Shukla & Mintz, 1982). ???? ???????? ????????? ????? ? ???????????? ????? ? ?????????? (Giorgi et al., 1996): ???????????? ?????? ??????????? ? ?????? ???????????? ???????? ??? ?????? ????????????? ??????????. ?????? ?????? ?????????? ? ?????????? ???????????? ????????? ????? ? ??????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????????? ?????.

    24. ????????? ???????? ?????????????? ????????? ????? (P. Dirmeyer, 2004)

    25. ????????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????????: ???????????????? ???? ????, ??????????? ???????? ???????? ???? 0 C ? ??????? ???? ???????????????? ??? ? ??????. ?????????? ? ?????????? ?????????, ????????? ?? ??????? ????? ??????????? ?????, ?????????????? ?????? ?????, ?????????? ???? ? ????? ? ??????????? ??????? ??????. ?????? ???????? ???????????? ???????????? ? ???????? ????????? ???, ?????????? ???????? ?????????????? ? ??????????? ????????????? ????. ? ??????? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????? ????? ?????????? ? ????? ? ???????? ?????? ???? ???????????? ???. ????? ?? ?????? ???????? ???? ? ?????? ????? (? ????????, ?????? ? ??????????? ????) ??????????? ?? ???? ???????????? ??????????? ????????????????? ???? ????????? ?????????? - ????????? ????.

    26. ????????? ?????? ?????????-?????????? ??????????? ??????????????? ??????????? ????????? ??????? 13-15 ???? 2007 ?., ??????????? ??????????? ???????????? ?????????? ? ???????? ???????????? ??????? ????? ? ????????? 20-30 ??? ?? ??????????????? ???????????? ???????: ?????????? ???????? ????????????? ?????? ?????????? ????? ?????-??????? ? ?????? ??????; ???????? ???????? ?????? ??????????? ???????????? ???????? ????????? ????????? ?? ????? ?????? ??????, ? ????? ???????? ????????? ???????? ?????????? ???????? ????? (???????? ?????????? ?????, ?????? ? ??.); ??????? ??????? ???????????????? ? ??????????? ?????????????? ????????????? ? ?????? ????????? ? ???????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? (??????, ?????????????? ????, ????, ????????????? ??????? ? ?.?.).

    28. ?????? ??????????????? ?????????????? ? ?????-?????????? ?????????? ?????? - ????

    32. ?????????????? ????????? ?????????????? ????????? ? ??????????? ???? ????

    33. ???????? ???????????? ? ??????????????? ???????? ???????? ??????? ? ??????? ??????????????, ? ?.?. ?? ???????? ???????, ??? ????????? ????????? ????????? ???????? ???????? ????????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ??????? (?????????????) ..

    34. ??????????????? ??????? (Robock et al., 2000)

    35. GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment): http://www.gewex.org MAGS: http://http://www.usask.ca/geography/MAGS GCIP: http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/gapp/gcip LBA: http://www.gewex.org/lambada.html BALTEX: http://w3.gkss.de/baltex/ CATCH: http://www.lthe.hmg.inpg.fr/WEB_Catch/Accueil_CATCH_en.html GAME: http://www.hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp/game MDB: http://www.gewex.org/mdb.html PILPS: http://www.cic.mq.edu.au/pilps-rice

    36. T.J. Philips et al. (2002). Large-Scale Validation of AMIP II Land-Surface Simulations

    37. ????????? ??????? ????????? ????????? ????? ???????????? (1979-1988 ?.?.) ??????? ???????????? ????????? ?? ??????????? ???? ?? ??????????? AMIP-I ? ????????? ? ??????? ????????? (Reference) NCEP (Phillips et al., 2000).

    39. ????????? ??????? ??? ???????????? ????? ???????? ????? ?? ??????????? ???? ?? ?????? ???????????? AMIP-II (Irannejad et al., 2002).

    40. ????????????????? ? ????? (??????? ? ???????, 1998)

    41. ???????????? ??????????? ????????? ???????????? ?????: ??????????? ????????????????: ??? ? - ????????? ????????? ????? (? ??) ????????? ?????, ??????????? ????????????????, ?????????????? ????? ?????????? ??????????? ???? ??? ????????????? ???????????

    43. ?????????? ??????????? ???? ??? ??????? ??????????? ????? (Ishizaki,1994)

    49. Barenblatt and Golitsyn (1974) => Wamser and Lykossov (1995), Dery and Taylor (1996), Bintanja (2001)

    50. ??????????? ???? ????????? .

    51. ?????????????? ??????? ??????? .

    52. V.N. Lykossov. Numerical modelling of interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and the Antarctic ice shelf. - Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling, 2001, v. 16, 315-330. 1-D model with ?-e turbulent closure and parameterized accounting of topography and free atmosphere 1 barotropic case (uniform geostrophic wind -> no background heat and moisture advection) 2 baroclinic case without topography (non-uniform geostrophic wind -> background heat and moisture advection) 3 baroclinic case with topography

    53. On left: surface temperature (a) and sensible heat flux. On right: near-the-surface wind velocity (a) and momentum flux (b); 5 with snow saltation and diffusion

    64. ?????? ??????????

    69. ???????? ?.?., ???????? ?.?., ???????? ?.?., ??????? ?.?., ??????? ?.?. ?????????? ????????????? ????????????? ? ???????? ???????????? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ???????? ??????, 2006

    71. ????????? ??????????? ??????????????, ????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ????????? ??????, ???-??????? ?????? ????????????? ??? ?? ???? ????????????. ?? ?????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ? ?? ?????, ?? ? ?? ??????? ??? ???? ?????? ??????????? ????????? ??? ??????????? ???????????. ? ????? ????, ??????? ??????????? ??????: ????????? ???? ?????????? ??????????????? ??????????? ??????????????, ????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ????????? ??????, ???-??????? ?????? ????????????? ??? ?? ???? ????????????. ?? ?????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ? ?? ?????, ?? ? ?? ??????? ??? ???? ?????? ??????????? ????????? ??? ??????????? ???????????. ? ????? ????, ??????? ??????????? ??????: ????????? ???? ?????????? ??????

    72. ????????? ?? ????????!

More Related