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The Prediction and Monitoring of Environmental impacts caused by CDM-AR Projects

The Prediction and Monitoring of Environmental impacts caused by CDM-AR Projects. Prof. Dr. ir. Bart MUYS K.U.Leuven bart.muys@agr.kuleuven.ac.be. Outline. 1. A sustainability framework for CDM-AR 1.1 Environment as part of Sustainable development 1.2 Sustainability framework

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The Prediction and Monitoring of Environmental impacts caused by CDM-AR Projects

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  1. The Prediction and Monitoring of Environmental impacts caused by CDM-AR Projects Prof. Dr. ir. Bart MUYS K.U.Leuven bart.muys@agr.kuleuven.ac.be

  2. Outline 1. A sustainability framework for CDM-AR 1.1 Environment as part of Sustainable development 1.2 Sustainability framework 2. Environmental Impact in CDM-AR (demand) 3. Methods to assess Environmental Impact (supply) 3.1 Overview of methods 3.2 Selection of methods 4. Assessment Methods for CDM-AR 4.1 Programme design 4.2 Project design 4.3 Project monitoring and internal auditing 4.4 Project auditing and certification 5. Conclusions B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  3. A sustainability framework for CDM-AR1.1. Environment as part of sustainability WHAT IS SUSTAINABILITY ? “When you figure out what sustainability is, let me know” USDA economist, 1990 “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” WCED, 1987 (the Brundtland Report) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  4. Interpretation: Sustainability is… • Something important • Something good • Something to do with ecology and economy at the same time • Everybody talks about it • Everybody understands it differently • Everybody thinks he/she is implementing it • Hence, something difficult to measure • In conclusion, a very important concept, but unpractically defined B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  5. Re-defining sustainability • Sustainability: a state in which the environment and the ecosystem are not degraded by human activities • Development: evolution of increasing human welfare and well-being • Sustainable development(SD): development which does not degrade environment and ecosystem over the longer term (50/50) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  6. 1.2. Sustainability framework for CDM-AR(Madlener et al., 2003, modified after Lammerts van Bueren and Blom, 1998) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  7. Framework definitions (1/3) • An Issueis a main theme or domain that should be covered to reach SD (e.g. The environmental issue). SD is essentially a multi-issue optimization process • A principleis an accepted fundamental rule of SD. It is formulated as a commandment (e.g. The protection function should be maintained, and where appropriate, enhanced) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  8. Framework definitions (2/3) • Atargetis a long term planning objective aiming at the implementation of a principle • A strategya long-term methodological approach followed to reach a target • Ataskis a concrete item of an action plan bringing targets and strategies to implementation • A guideline is a set of practical instructions important for successful implementation of a task B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  9. Framework definitions (3/3) • A criteriondescribes the state of the system under compliance with a principle. It is formulated to allow a verdict (e.g. Soil erosion is minimized) • An indicator is a variable indicating the level of compliance with a criterion • A norm or threshold is a well-defined indicator value setting the boundary between compliance and non-compliance to a criterion • A verifier is a tool or instrument to measure an indicator B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  10. Framework for CDM-AR: example B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  11. Framework for CDM-AR: example B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  12. Principles under the Environmental Issue • The overall GHG balance (including carbon in peat and soil, N2O, CH4, etc.) of the project shall be positive • Forest area shall be conserved or restored, forest vitality and condition shall be maintained and where appropriate enhanced • The Productive function of the forest shall be maintained, forest regeneration secured and sustainable harvest promoted • Biodiversity, ecological processes and life support functions of the ecosystem shall be maintained, and where appropriate, restored • TheProtection function (water, soil) shall be maintained and where appropriate restored B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  13. Examples of criteria for environmental principle 4 (biodiversity) • Existing biological, genetic and habitat diversity are maintained and conserved where necessary • Numbers, area and distribution of Landscapes, forest types and habitats with specific biodiversity values are conserved • Plantation forests are only accepted if they do not replace natural forests, demonstrate to decrease pressure on the natural systems and demonstrate local socio-economic benefits • Afforestation/reforestation makes maximal use of native species; use of exotics is minimized and is dependent on a number of restrictions • The use of biocides, fertilizer, genetically modified organisms, non native plant, animal, pest and disease species is not allowed or regulated under strict conditions B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  14. Example of indicators for environmental principle 4, criterion 1 (conservation of biodiversity)modified from national C&I of ITTO for natural tropical forests • Percentage of original range occupied by selected endangered, rare and threatened species. • Existence and implementation of a strategy for in situ and/or ex situ conservation of the genetic variation within commercial, endangered, rare and threatened species of flora and fauna. • Existence and implementation of management guidelines to: (a) keep undisturbed a part of each AR zone, (b) protect endangered, rare and threatened species of flora and fauna, and(c) protect features of special biological interest, such as river banks, cliffs, nesting sites, niches and keystone species. • Existence and implementation of procedures for assessing changes of biological diversity of the production forests, compared with areas in the same forest type kept free from human intervention. B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  15. Indicators should meet following criteria: • Cost effective and simple in measuring • Sensitive to the considered principle and criterion • Universally applicable (rule for auditing, recommendation for monitoring) • Quantitative • Spatially explicit • Not arbitrarily chosen but based on a solid ecological concept. We propose the ecosystem exergy concept • Measuring as much as possible endpoints in the cause-effect chain • Low in number • Integrate the time aspect • Distinguish reversible from irreversible impacts B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  16. Recommendations concerning environmental issues (1/2) 1. RECOMMENDATIONS CONCERNING THE ACTION PATH (PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION PHASE) 1.1. All 6 environmental issues should be adopted in CDM-AR project design and management plan 1.3. Guidelines for good environmental practice in CDM-AR projects must be developed and adopted 1.4 Environmental risk and uncertainty analysis must be integrated in the design and management of a CDM-AR project B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  17. Recommendations concerning environmental issues (2/2) 2. RECOMMENDATIONS CONCERNING THE EVALUATION PATH (MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PHASE) 2.1. Project initiators should create, use and update a database integrating maps, inventory and monitoring data of all environmental information concerning the project area 2.2. The assessment tools used for monitoring and auditing must be flexible to cope with variable experience and data availability 2.3 Assessment tools should be standardized as far as possible 2.4 The use of a functional unit to express environmental impacts is advisable (e.g. 1 Ton of avoided or reduced CO2). B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  18. 2. Environmental impact in CDM-AR (demand side) • Kyoto protocol (1997): no rules specified • CoP9 Milano (2003): Modalities and Procedures for AR project activities under the CDM in the 1st. commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol • Many rules and guidelines on carbon accounting (baseline, additionality, non-permanence) with reference to the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land use, Land-Use Change and Forestry. • Very few explanation on other environmental and socio-economic issues. More detail only in annex B under the contents of a Project Design Document (PDD) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  19. Environmental impacts in PDD • describe the project activity, the present environmental conditions including climate, hydrology, soils, ecosystems, and the possible presence of rare of endangered species and their habitats. They also mention that the PDD should also include the following information on the environmental impact of the project activity: • Include documentation on the analysis of the environmental impacts of the project activity, including impacts on biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and impacts outside the project boundary of the proposed afforestation and reforestation project activity under the CDM. This analysis should include, where applicable, information on, inter alia, hydrology, soils, risk of fires, pests and diseases; • If any negative impact is considered significant by the project participants or the host Party, a statement that project participants have undertaken an environmental impact assessment, in accordance with the procedures required by the host Party, including conclusions and all references to support documentation. Consequence: the assessment methods for CDM-AR must at least include these aspects B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  20. 3. Methods to assess environmental impact • A variety of methods for sustainability assessment is available • The question is which ones can best serve our goals and meet the requirements of CoP9 • Rule: not start from the method, but from the problem to solve (using a stakeholders approach) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  21. 3.1 Overview of methods • General: Environmental legislation • Action path (methods for design, planning and implementation) • Design and Planning • Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) • Risk Analysis • Implementation • Codes of Good Environmental Practice • Decision Support Systems (DSS) or Knowledge Based Systems (KBS) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  22. 3.1 Overview of methods • Evaluation path (methods for monitoring and auditing) • State of the Environment Reporting • Environmental auditing (including standards of P,C&I of SFM) • Life Cycle Assessment • Cost/Benefit Analysis B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  23. Environmental legislation • Objective: prevention, control and punition • Characteristics: • Develops slowly following increased human pressure on natural resources • Based on the Polluter pays principle (taxes, charges, fines, compensation for damage) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  24. Environmental Impact Assessment • Definition: a procedure for encouraging decision-makers to take account of the possible effects of development investments on environmental quality and natural resource productivity before any decision is made • Objective: Prevention of environmental damage or degradation as a result of human action • Characteristics: follows a systematic interdisciplinary approach to produce an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  25. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (sEIA) • Definition: an EIA for policies and programmes on a wider geographical level B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  26. Risk analysis • Concept: reduce risks to ALARA level (as low as reasonably acceptable) • Objective: assess the probability of an accident and of the damage it would cause; determine the ALARA level • Types of risk: technical or environmental, social, marketing, juridical, financial. B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  27. Codes of good environmental practice • Operational tool for daily practice • Example: the South African code of good harvesting practice, used for: • Planning of forest roads, extraction routes and timber harvesting • Monitoring of operations in progress • Feedback during and after completion of the operations (auditing) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  28. Codes of good environmental practice. Example: the South African harvesting code of practice • The code first defines the values to care for: • Soil • Water • Forest health • Scientific and ecological interests • Paleontological, archaeological and historical values • Aesthetic and recreational values • Human resources • Commercial interests B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  29. Codes of good environmental practice. Example: the South African harvesting code of practice • The code gives rules of practice for: • Construction of forest roads, landings and extraction routes • Timber harvesting • Post harvesting operations • For each activity the following aspects are explained: • The factors influencing the activity • Potential effects of bad practice • Positive effects of good practice • Methods of reducing potential negative effects • Essential elements of the operational plan B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  30. II.3. Decision support systems • Sustainable forest management depends on decisions. The right decisions can be hard to make because of: • the complexity of the problem. • the inherent uncertainties in the outcome. • The multiple objectives that have to be achieved, which means that progress in one direction may impede negative effects in others. In such case a decision maker must trade off benefits in one area against cost in another. • different perspectives may lead to different conclusions. B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  31. Decision support systems: a definition • A decision support system is a computer software package, designed and operated to model or otherwise represent the structure of a decision problem and thus allow the user(s) to identify and select a preferred strategy or other course of action from two or more alternatives against a pre-determined set of criteria. • A DSS may be defined by its capabilities in several critical areas: ·Aimed at poorly structured, underspecified problems ·Combine the use of models or analytical techniques with traditional data access and retrieval functions ·Easy to use by non computer specialists in an interactive mode ·Emphasize flexibility and adaptability to accommodate changes in the decision making approach of the end-user B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  32. Spatial Decision support systems (sDSS) • Takes spatial variation into account: ideal for land management • Uses GIS technology • Scales up point models to the landscape level • Exemple: AFFOREST: a spatial decision support system for afforestation optimizing for carbon sequestration, groundwater recharge and nitrate leaching B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  33. Time Afforestation Strategy Initial system Afforested system Afforested system Metamodel Second step: analysing the type of question Afforested system B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  34. Evaluation of Decision support systems for sustainable forest management • Strengths: • user friendly • able to give simple answers to complex questions • adapted to specific or local problems • can include all aspects of sustainability • can include a lot of existing expert knowledge • able to model in time (prediction) and space • Weaknesses: • very complex and expensive to design • very few systems are operational • user doesn’t know or understand what is behind B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  35. State of the Environment Reporting • Objective: Long-term monitoring of trends; describe measures and policies taken • Steps: data acquirement; storage; analysis; statistics; reliability • Examples: State of the World report (world watch institute); Dobris assessment (European Environment Agency); Company reports (as part of annual reports) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  36. Standards of P,C&I of SFM • The most widespread evaluation tool for sustainable forest management • More than 150 standards available worldwide • Standards for the national and for the Forest Management Unit (FMU) level: • National standards: for evaluating the effectiveness of the national forest policy • FMU standards: for evaluating the sustainability of the management and for forest certification (FSC, ISO 14000, PEFC) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  37. Strengths and weaknesses of C&I for SFM • Strengths: • BATNEEC method for SFM evaluation: Best Available Technique Not Entailing an Excessive Cost • Standards adapted to local conditions and local problems • Low technical skills required to use • Weaknesses: • Poor scientific base (what do they exactly intend to measure?) • Arbitrary choice of C&I • Arbitrary weights attributed to C&I • Not a quantitative, but a descriptive approach (when it is sustainable, how sustainable is it?) • No clear reference system • No universal applicability (important if you want to compare different management systems or different wood products) • Poor uniformity between standards in contents and semantics B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  38. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) • Method developed in industry to compare environmental impact of products and production processes with a clear emphasis on continuous improvement • Quantitative approach, mass balances of inputs and outputs • Including the complete life cycle of a product from cradle to grave B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  39. Life Cycle Assessment: an ISO 14040 standardised stepwise procedure Life Cycle Assessment((LCA) framework 1. Definition of goal and scope 4. Interpretation (including sensitivity analysis, aggregation and conclusion) Applications: -product design and product optimisation - planning - marketing 2. Life cycle Inventory (LCI) 3. Life cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  40. LCA: differences with C&I • It does not include socio-economic and cultural aspects; it is restricted to the environmental aspects of sustainability • It is more standardized (stepwise methodology, linearity, no double counting, sensitivity analysis) • It is more quantitative and less subjective • It is, in principle, universally applicable: all land use systems and climate conditions B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  41. LCA: some important concepts • System boundaries:In the definition of goal and scope, it is decided which aspects and processes will be part of the study and which ones will be excluded • Functional unit:It is the unit of the end product to which each impact is expressed (e.g. one newspaper in the case of an LCA for paper; one km in the case of an LCA for vehicle fuels, etc.) • Impact category: an LCIA is performed per impact category: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, extraction of abiotic resources, eutrophication, acidification, human health, land use, etc. B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  42. LCA: some examples • Example 1. Impact category GHG emissions in an LCA for electricity production from bioenergy crops (short rotation coppice) (1/3) • Goal and scope: which coppice system is having the strongest GHG emission reduction? • Inventory analysis (literature study) • Impact analysis in two steps: • dynamic modelling with GORCAM (Graz Oak Ridge Carbon Accounting Model) • express impact per functional unit (1 Kwh of electricity+heat) • Compare with a reference system (leaving the land set-aside and produce electricity from natural gas) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  43. Impact assessment: modelling the GHG balance (2/3) • carbon sequestration is low • substitution for fossil fuels decreases GHG emissions substantially • overall GHG emission reduction is very high B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  44. Impact assessment: results per functional unit (3/3) (Lettens et al. 2002) Performance per area Performance per energy unit produced Emission product system Emission reference system Avoided emission Avoided emission • Performance on a ha basis differs from the one on an energetic basis • Best performance of mixed native coppice on an energetic basis explained by higher carbon sequestration in soil, lower N20-emission and lower fossil fuel use B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  45. Example 2. Impact category land use for LULUCF projects (Land use, land use change and forestry) in the framework of the Kyoto protocol (1/7) • Goal and scope: which forestry project will have the lowest land use impact? • Inventory analysis: literature data and field observations • Impact assessment • method Muys and Garcia (2002) has 17 quantitative indicators comparing the exergy level of the land use system with the exergy level of the climax system at the same site. Indicators cover 4 themes (soil, water, vegetation structure and biodiversity) • expressing the impact per functional unit of 1 ton CO2 emission reduction B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  46. Land use Impact assessment (2/7) • The land use impact score is the difference in land quality between the present land use and the reference system, multiplied by the time/space requirement to produce one functional unit. B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  47. Indicator Reference S1 Soil compaction 100% unaffected at soil permeabilityref S2 Soil structure disturbance 100% undisturbed S3 Soil erosion No soil erosion S4 Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) CECref S6 Base Saturation Base Satref W1 Evapotrans-piration Evapotranpirationref. • Land use impact assessment indicators (3/7) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  48. W2 Surface runoff No surface runoff V1 Total aboveground living biomass (TAB) Total above ground living biomassref V2 Leaf area index (LAI) Leaf Area Indexref V3 Height Heightref V4 Free Net Primary Production (fNPP) Net Primary Productionref • Land use impact assessment indicators (4/7) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  49. V5 Crop biomass No crop species or harvest B1 Artificial change of water balance No irrigation or drainage. B2 Liming, fertilisation, empoverish- ment No area affected B3 Biocides No area affected B4 Cover of exotic species 100% native species B5 Number of species Species richnessref Land use impact assessment indicators (5/7) B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

  50. land use impact per unit of area (6/7) • all land use types can be compared • Impact of all land uses on soil and water is low, except for tropical deforestation • natural systems have lowest impact • intensively managed plantations systems have higher impact than multifunctional forests • overall impact of plantation forest does not seem much higher than that of fijnbos vegetation, when afromontane forest was chosen as a reference • impact of selective logging and shifting cultivation in tropical forest is low B. MUYS - environmental impact of CDM-AR - 2004

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