Climate Change Threats and Opportunities: Regional Context and Outcomes of COP-15

1. Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities to Sustainable DevelopmentFrom Regional Context and Outcomes of Cop-15 By Khim Lay, Assistant Country Director and Team Leader Environment and Energy Unit, UNDP Cambodia 20-21 January 2010

2. Outline • Climate Change Basic: Real or Note, Causes and Impacts • Climate Change Vulnerability at regional level (Southeast Asia) • Climate Change Impacts on Human Development and Poverty Reduction • Global Solutions: Outcomes of Cop 15: Challenges and Opportunities • Proposed recommendations: Avoid dangerous climate change and building national readiness

3. Climate Change? SUN GREENHOUSE EFFECT GREENHOUSE GASES (GHGs) SUNLIGHT INFRARED RADIATION GHGs GHGs GHGs EARTH

4. Climate Change and Ozone Layer Layer of GHGs is about 8-10 km from earth surface while ozone layer is 10-50 km from earth surface. GHGs: CO2, Methane and Ozone Ozone: Oxygen layer consists of oxygen atoms, oxygen gas and ozone gas. Global warming will lead to a weaker Oxon layer Over Antarctica, the Ozone hole is three times the size of the United States

5. Weather • Day to day status and (short term) changes in the status of the atmosphere in terms of meteorological parameters: rainfall, temperatures, pressure, etc. • Climate • Average weather over a period of time ranging from months to thousand/millions of years. • Cannot be perceived – needs science. Concerns the status of the entire Earth system, (atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and living things) • Can be perceived by people (bad, good, cold, warm, rainy, extremes - heat waves, downpours, cold spells) Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.

6. Climate Change Is Real or Not? Rising Temperatures Changes in: - Precipitation & soil evaporation - Sea level - Frequency & intensity of extreme events - Ecosystem distribution & composition

7. Causes of Climate Change Increase in Green House Gases mainly due to human activities such as: • Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) to generate energy • Land use change and deforestation This leads to Greenhouse Effect – increase in GHGs in atmosphere preventing heat to escape into the space, keeping the earth warmer

8. Loss of habitat, species and protective ecosystems, changes in forest composition, migratory shifts Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress marshes, wetlands Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestations Variability in water supply, quality and distribution. More competition and cross-border conflicts over water resources COASTAL SYSTEMS ECOSYSTEM SERVICES WATER RESOURCES PUBLIC HEALTH AGRICULTURE Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costs Not just an Environmental Issue – but also Development Issue Social stresses, economic losses, increased poverty, Unsustainable Growth

9. Economic Implications • Effects are cumulative, irreversible and global • Inverse relationship between vulnerability and responsibility • Unequal impact - the poorest people especially at the local community affected the earliest and most • Significant socio-economic implications Cost of inaction – estimates vary:

10. Relevance to MDGs Source: http://www.undp.org/climatechange/

11. Composition of Vulnerability Severe climatic events; floods; drought; sea level rise Population density; extent of protected area Level of CC Vulnerability Sensitivity Climatic Hazards Lack of Adaptive Capacity Socio-economic factors: Human Development, poverty, inequality, technology & infrastructure: power supply, irrigation, road, communication, … Adapted from EEPSEA 2009

12. Human and Ecological Sensitivity Map

13. Multiple Climate Hazard Map

14. Adaptive Capacity Map

15. Climate Change Vulnerability Map Source: Reproduced with permission from EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity

16. Outcomes of Copenhagen Cop 15 • Seal the deal was not achieved • Copenhagen Accord- political statement not a legal binding document • Request all countries to associate with it by Feb 2010 • Request for further negotiation to transform it to become a legal biding document • Request developed countries to set quantified economy-wide emission targets in annex I and developing countries to set nationally appropriate mitigation actions in annex II.

17. Contents of the Copenhagen Accord • Recognize CC is one of the greatest challenges of our time, calling for strong political will in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities • Recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development • Call for international cooperation in achieving the hold of increase of 2 degree Celsius to avoid negative consequences on efforts of social and economic development and poverty eradication of developing countries. • Recognize the development of a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development. • Adaptation is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required

18. Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.) • Agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building • Recognize the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests • Agree on the need to provide positive incentives to such actions through the immediate establishment of a mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countries • Decide to pursue various approaches, including opportunities to use markets, to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote mitigation actions.

19. Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.) • Scaled up, new and additional funding shall be provided to developing countries • The collective commitment by developed countries is to provide new and additional resources, including forestry and investments of USD 30 billion for the period 2010 . 2012 • Developed countries commit to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries. • A High Level Panel will be established to study the contribution of the potential sources of revenue, • Decide that the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund shall be established • Decide to establish a Technology Mechanism to accelerate technology development and transfer • Call for an assessment of the implementation of this Accord to be completed by 2015

20. We must avoid dangerous climate change -Reducing the demand on fuel: • Use fusil efficiently, • Save energy, • Promote energy efficiency the building • Clean development mechanism Controlling land use change and deforestation • Making forest sustainably managed and used including forest plantation • Conserving ecosystem and managing protected areas to enhance and conserve carbon stock (REDD plus) • Reducing dependency on wood energy and promoting renewable energy technologies • Making agricultural land use more productive • Controlling big land use change and making land use more sustainable to reduce pressures on forest land • National Readiness to promote Reduction Emission from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)

21. Building National Readiness by 2015 and beyond • Right public perceptions on CC issues • Right policy and plans • Right institutional set up, coordination and effective international and regional cooperation • Right programme and decision on investment • Building stronger resilience infrastructure and facility • Improving knowledge on science and technologies through formal education, research, sharing and dialogues and technology transfers • Policy performance evaluation and lessons learned

22. “Your planet needs you”UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon THANK YOU!