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Sustainable Energy Scenarios for EU25: A Path to Energy Security and Emission Control

The project aims to investigate energy strategies for EU25 that achieve environmental and energy goals at minimum cost. By exploring 'Non-end-of-pipe' options, it focuses on reducing finite fuels and atmospheric emissions. Data collection, scenario running, and translating energy flows are key steps, with input assumptions like CO2 targets and demand drivers. The timetable includes results ready for the NECPI meeting. For queries, contact Mark Barrett at Mark.Barrett@ucl.ac.uk.

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Sustainable Energy Scenarios for EU25: A Path to Energy Security and Emission Control

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  1. Energy scenarios for Europeoptions for energy security and emission control project for the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Mark Barrett UCL / SENCO

  2. Aim Investigate energy strategies for the EU25 that achieve multiple environmental and energy goals at low or minimum overall cost. (SEEScen model) Goals: • environment • global warming • atmospheric pollutants • other pollutants • energy security • minimum imports of finite fuels

  3. Options Investigate deployment of ‘Non-end-of-pipe’ (NEOP) options that reduce finite fuels and atmospheric emissions.

  4. Process • Generate energy scenarios • collect base data • develop assumptions about policy options • run scenarios • output results data • energy flows through different sectors and technologies • costs and emissions • Translate energy flow data into RAINS format • IIASA run RAINS

  5. Some critical input assumptions • CO2 targets • for 2010/12, 2020 and the longer term • include international transport - aviation, shipping? • Demand drivers • population and households • economic growth and sectoral activity • Energy • international energy prices • future generation from existing and new nuclear stations • energy trade balance constraints between EU25 and rest of world Any advice from TFIAM concerning these welcomed.

  6. Sample output: UK scenario: energy flow chart for 2050

  7. Sample output: UK scenario: electricity

  8. Sample output: UK scenario: CO2

  9. Sample output: UK CO2 by scenario

  10. Sample output: UK scenario: Total cost

  11. Timetable • Energy scenarios ready by mid-November • Transfer of energy data to RAINS – Nov/Dec • IIASA to run RAINS - end of the year • Results ready to present at the NECPI meeting in Jan/Feb 2007

  12. Where to reach Mark ? Mark.Barrett@ucl.ac.uk MarkBarrett@sencouk.co.uk Tel +44 07837 33829 www.SENCOuk.co.uk

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