The 2010 Census in Historical Perspective

1. The 2010 Census in Historical Perspective Margo Anderson University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee September 16, 2011 America 2011: The Lines, Numbers & Politics of a Changing Nation

4. 1930

5. 1870

6. 1850

7. 1790

8. The Census is a …. • Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life… • Rare: • The 2010 Census is the 23rd in 220 years. • By comparison we’ve had 44 presidents, and 56 presidential elections. The 111th Congress is currently in session.

9. The Census is a …. • Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life… • Repeated: • Successfully every ten years since 1790, despite wars, including the Civil War, economic crises, political turmoil.

10. The Census is a …. • Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life… • Unobtrusive: • Most people don’t remember the last one, the one before that, the one before that… • Do you remember where you were on April 1, 2000, April 1, 1990? • Compare that to September 11, 2001, or November 22, 1963, or December 7, 1941?

11. The Census also is….Janus faced • It always looks both backwards to where the country has been and forward to where it’s going • in methods and the questions asked, • the results, • and most clearly in the reapportionment and redistricting of political power each decade

12. Outline of the Talk • Census History: constitutional origins and functions • Demographic history of US and implications of growth and change on the political system • Administrative and Organizational History • Episodes in the past relevant to current issues.

13. I. Building the American State

15. Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3 • Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

16. Importance of the Census • The United States was the first nation in the history of the world to take a regular population census and use it to allocate seats in a national assembly according to population.

17. Importance of the Census • The U.S. has had one of the most demographically dynamic and diverse populations in the history of the world. • The combination of the census as mechanism to adjust power and resources each decade, in conjunction with the demographic dynamism and diversity, made the census and the statistical system truly central to the functioning of the society and state

18. Importance of the Census • Dynamism is measured by patterns of population growth and change • Diversity involves geographic diversity, group diversity, and different rates of change for different parts of the country, and among the groups. • Hence three levels • Numerical growth • Geographic diversity • Racial and ethnic diversity

19. Numerical Growth

20. From 3.9 million to ~309 million: Growth • 13 states have become 50 states. • House of Representatives grew from 65 to 435 members. • The average congressional district after the 2010 Census will be larger than the total population of any of the original 13 states in 1790. • Growth has been differential: some states and local areas lose while others gain.

21. 2010

23. Admitting States to the Union

24. Growth in the Size of the House of Representatives

25. Differential Population Growth: New York State Population and House Delegation, 1790-2010

26. Changes in House Seats: 2010

27. Geographic Diversity

28. Geographic Diversity: Westward Expansion

29. 2010 Center of Population

30. Geographic Diversity: The First Gerrymander, 1812

31. Racial and Ethnic Diversity

32. Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page http:/www.census.gov Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171) http://census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/white_a.pdf Click to see Table http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-4.pdf Click to see Census 2000 Brief

33. Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page http://www.census.gov/ Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171) http://www.census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html Click to see Table http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/black_a.pdf Click to see Census 2000 Brief http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-5.pdf

34. Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page http://www.census.gov/ http://www.census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171) Click to see Table http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/his_lat.pdf Click to see Census 2000 Brief http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-3.pdf

35. Civil War Demographic Map

36. Administrative and Organizational History

37. Administrative History of the Census • 1790 to 1902: census office was a temporary agency in the Department of State (1790-1840) or Interior (1850-1902). • 1790-1870: US marshals and their assistants served as the field staff. • Congress considered proposals for a permanent census office but did not act on them until 1902. • 1903: Bureau of the Census made a permanent agency in the Department of Commerce and Labor, now Department of Commerce.

38. Early Administrative Leadership • State Department Era: Informal process, a “Clerk” appointed by the Secretary • Interior Department Era: • A Superintending Clerk (1850-1870) position defined in statute, appointed by the Secretary • A Superintendent of the Census (1880-1900) defined in statute, appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate • Administration of the Census was originally a young man’s job…

39. James D.B. Debow, Appointed, 1853, at Age 33 Francis Amasa Walker, Appointed, 1869, at Age 29 Appointed in 1849, at Age 36

40. Technical Innovations in Census Taking • 1850: The individual level census and the first full scale tabulation office in Washington • 1890: Hollerith cards introduced machine tabulation of the census results • 1930s: The Bureau sampling to measure unemployment • 1940: The Bureau introduced sampling into the decennial census • 1940s: Statistical methods used for coverage measurement estimates, a modified demographic analysis • 1950: UNIVAC computer processing of the census results

41. Technical innovations… • 1960: FOSDIC (film optic sensing device for input to computers) to replace keypunching • 1960s: First PUMS files available • 1970: Mail census • 1980s: Building the TIGER/MAF system • 2000s: Introduction of ACS (American Community Survey)

42. Problems of Census Administration • The Constitutional language is silent on how to administer the census and how to apportion Congress. • From Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3: • The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

43. Example of the Constitutional Ambiguity:The 1920 Census and Apportionment • Congress decided in 1910 to stop increasing the size of the House each decade • The 1920 Census apportionment was a zero sum game • Congress failed to pass a reapportionment law • Rural interests claimed the results were wrong • “Scientists” could not agree on an apportionment method

44. Growth in the Size of the House of Representatives

45. Major Fractions vs. Equal Proportions Major Fractions Equal Proportions First proposed by Joseph Hill, Chief Statistician, 1911 Espoused by Edward V. Huntington, Professor of Mathematics at Harvard. • First proposed in 1840 by Daniel Webster • Used through 1910 • Espoused by Walter Willcox, former Chief Statistician, and in the 1920s, Professor at Cornell

46. Walter Willcox Edward V. Huntington

47. Apportionment Methods • Huntington convinced a National Academy of Sciences panel to support equal proportions • Congress developed an automatic apportionment trigger to go into effect after the 1930 census, using “the last method,” which was major fractions • After the 1940 Census, the results of the two methods differed. • Major fractions gave the 435th seat to MI, a Republican state. • Equal Proportions gave the 435th seat to AR, a Democratic state.

48. Apportionment Methods • Congress rewrote the 1929 statute to mandate equal proportions. The method has been used ever since. • The best current analysis of apportionment methods, Balinski and Young’s Fair Representation,” argues that the method is biased in favor of small states.

49. Bias in Apportionment Methods

50. The Problem of Redistricting… • To solve the 1920s apportionment controversy, Congress removed the requirement for equally sized legislative districts. • Malapportionment grew from the 1910s to the 1960s • 1960s: Supreme Court ruled that districts had to be equally sized (Baker v Carr)