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European Apple & Pear Outlook 2012

European Apple & Pear Outlook 2012. Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) www.wapa-association.org. Plan of the presentation. Forecast 2012 EU 27 main trends Review by States and regions : Europe at large Southern Hemisphere & global balance

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European Apple & Pear Outlook 2012

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  1. European Apple & Pear Outlook 2012 Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association(WAPA) www.wapa-association.org

  2. Plan of the presentation • Forecast 2012 • EU 27 main trends • Review by States and regions : Europe at large • Southern Hemisphere & global balance • Market outlook 2012/2013 ( EU-27)

  3. European APPLE forecast 2012: Main trends European union (Eu-27)

  4. European 2012 crop forecast EU-27 (EU-27 population = 501.1 mln) • EU Production (20 States) set to be at 9.705.000 T + ca 100.000 T in non-participating States countries (7) • 2012 production (ranked 8th in decade overview ) – decade av = 10.5 Mln T • Forecast = optimistic view? • Early spring followed by several frosts • Wet spring • Drought in several regions • Heavy summer hails storms • Normal harvest date • Balanced fluctuations still possible ( up Poland down elswhere )

  5. 2012 crop forecast EU-27: an overview PL, SK, CZ, HU = increasing production in 2012 PL = only country above YAGO and 3 years average + Russia , TK,..... Grd total Europe cont. > 16 Mln T

  6. 2012 crop forecast EU-27 – overview by varieties

  7. APPLE forecast 2012: states/regional review Europe at large

  8. Poland(population 38 mln) • N°1 EU producer: 2.8 Mln T up by 12% compared to last year. Idared moving from 420.000 T to 570.000 T (+38%) and Gloster (+25%) • Affected by climatic conditions, but new plantings bearing new fruit year on year and new storage capacities • Spring delay but flowering was hot and short – mid May, some frost • July was hot and with storms, hail damages => Increase percentage going to processing, more volume going to processing than to fresh 2.800.000 T Towards 3 Million ? +12 % +36% +12%

  9. Italy(population 60 mln) • Production below 2 Mln T, one of the smallest crops, while last year was the largest crop of the decade (frost on 17 April up to -4°C, unfavourable blossoming, hail...) • Russeting present due to cold climate during fruit setting but not widespread • 1 week later on 2011 – back to normal - 15% - 11% - 10% 1.987.000T

  10. France(population 64 mln) • Significant frost damages and cold/rain during blossoming • Most affected Limousin (impact on golden), part of north regions (impact on Boskoop and Jonagold) • Intermediate situation: South West, Loire, Alps (ca -15 to -20%) • Not affected: Provence and Languedoc will be normal => start of French season quick off under normal conditions with Gala and Pink lady , less affected • Calendar of harvest to start as normal in South France • Sufficient volume for domestic market 1.169.000T

  11. Germany(population 81 mln) • Production at 933.000 T down by 2% to last year, differences by region. Bodensee not N° 1 region. • Several nights with frost in spring, affecting a.o. Elstar (-16%) and Jonagold/Jonagored (-11%) • Some severe recent damage in Bodensee affecting 20.000 to 30.000 T – all varieties affected in Bodensee except Red Jonaprince and Topaz • On-going increasing surface of Kanzi + 2% - 7 % - 22 % other + 24% 933.000T - 18 %

  12. Alpine countries(population 16.3 mln) Austria (population 8.3 mln) • Frost, hail and storm leading to severe punctual damages and reduction by 23% of production to 153.000 T • 3 frosts on 01/04, 09/04 and 18/05 – some orchards 100% damaged • Braeburn and Gala less affected (only 15% less) Switzerland (population 8 mln) • Production at 146.000 T down by 6% to previous year 153.000T - 6% - 23% 146.000T

  13. Benelux(population 27.3 mln) Belgium (population 10.8 mln) • The lowest crop of the decade by far: -30% at 212.000 T, also ongoing decrease of apples orchard (3.6%) • Warm in January followed by extreme cold in February (-16°C), March dry and April rainy and cold with some night frost on 31/03 and 01/04, June rainy • Fruit size to be normal if enough rain in July and August , harvesting at normal date The Netherlands (population 16.5 mln) • Crop significantly down by 25% to reach 313.000 T • Some difference by regions, the South being overall better and less affected by short but heavy cold period. In North , damage up to 80% • For club varieties, higher acreage in production will compensate the lower productivity 313.000T - 25% 212.000T - 30%

  14. UK and Ireland(population 66.4 mln) UK (population 62 mln) • Production down by 28% at 163.000 T • All varieties are declining (25% or more, apart from Gala, -3% at 38.000 T). Expected large volume to processing (up to 45% compared to 39% last year) • Temperature well below average except 10 days in mid May . West Midlands affected by frost early May and hail . Summer: wet and cold . Conditions ideal for scab and mildew and spray difficult given regular rain and wet conditions in orchards • Harvesting back to normal but 3 weeks later than last year Ireland (population 4.4 mln) • No industry data and official census only every 5 years • Production around 40.000 T 163.000 T 40.000 T - 28%

  15. Nordic and Baltic(population 31.9 mln) Denmark (population 5.5 mln) • Crop to 2010 at 18.000 T • Elstar main variety, but down by 20%, Jonagored affected up to 30%, Cox orange reduced by 15% Sweden (population 9.3 mln) • Crop at 14.000 T • Mixed orchard of new varieties (up by 33%) while all other are down Latvia (population 2.2 mln) • Poor flowering leading and frost in end of May lead to a smaller crop of 7.000 T out of which 50% for processing Lithuania (population 3.3 mln) • Crop at 39.000 T Some new plantings with Lithuanian varieties • Heat wave end of April (29°C) and some hail damages • Summer variety: pick with one week of delay 14.000T 7.000T - 18% - 10% - 13% 18.000T 39.000T -20%

  16. Iberian Peninsula(population 55.6 mln) Spain (population 45 mln) • Production at peak low of the decade at 373.000 T, -26% • Low temperatures and rainfall during flowering • Catalonia affected by severe hail on 5 & 27 July in Lleida • Girona keeps growing: 37% of Catalonia production • Season, delay by 5-7 days Portugal (population 10.6 mln) • Production down by 15% at 225.000 T on 20.205 Ha • Impact of drought (44% of orchard under extreme drought and 30% in severe drought), poor pollination and fruit set - 26% 373.000T 225.000T - 15%

  17. Central Europe(population 25.9 mln) Hungary(population 10 mln) • Despite increasing volume to 418.000 T, crop remained below potential (frost in Easter @-10°C) - Jonathan, Jonagold and Idared are the most affected • % to industry decrease from 53% to 51% but volume is larger (213.000 T) Czech Republic (population 10.5 mln) • Production move to 101.000 T despite spring damage and below average temperatures • 5 days early than average Slovakia(population 5.4 mln) • Production at 36.000 T higher than av & last year PROGNOSFRUIT 2013 PRAGUE, 8 AUGUST 101.000T +9% 36.000T + 28% 418.000T +39%

  18. South East Europe(population 40.2mln) Greece (population 11.3 mln) • Smaller crop than final 2011 output by 2% => Fluctuation of climatic conditions with reduced flowering and poor fruit setting in some areas • Expected normal sizing, harvest could be up to one week earlier than last season • Orchard evolution: declining local varieties but also for Granny and Jonagold Romania (population 21.4 mln) • Slight decrease by 2% at 401.500 T • Higher volume to processing 28% v 25% => total fresh volume 289.000 T v 309.000 T last year • Main varieties: Jonathan and Golden ca 105.000 T each • No spring frost, some drought in June and July • Expected normal sizing -2% 402.000T 40.000T - 2% 298.000 T

  19. Balkans (population 24.2 mln) Slovenia(population 2 mln) • 45.000 T, -38%, the smallest crop of last 10 years due to climate (frost) . Limited number of new plantings • Normal harvesting date . More to processing despite smaller crop (from 20 to 30%) Croatia (population 4.2 mln) JOINING EU 1 JULY 2013 • Frost in April and May, hail in June, high t° in July => lower crop at 59.000 T • Harvest a few days earlier. Reduced share for processing (down from 42% to 30%) Macedonia(population 2 mln) • Large crop, no frost, 7 days delay over 800m, large size. Less volume to processing (13% v 15%), Idared = 72% of production. Serbia(population 7.1 mln) • Small crop 221.000 T, Idared main affected variety -35%, other -6% Bosnia (population 3.8 mln) • Significant deficit of production (-63%) to 17.322 T due to frost 45.000T - 38% 59.000T - 33% - 15% 221.000T 17.000T - 63% +9% 140.000T

  20. EU Eastern neighbours (population 274.2 mln) Belarus(population 9.5 mln) • Lower crop at 171.000 T due to frost damage affecting mainly new continental varieties. Moldova (population 3.5 mln) • Severe drought reducing productivity by 20% but compensated by new plantings (+15%): crop down by 5% in total Ukraine(population 45.7 mln) • Traditional frost damages avoided + new areas with intensive orchard (+1%) combined with increased yield (+4%) – total surface: 106.000 HA Russia (population 141.9 mln) • Industry statistics at 1.622.000 T on 250.000 HA Turkey(population 73.6 mln) • Ideal blossoming conditions, little hail and no droughts • Production slightly up by 1% - 5% 171.000T 1.096.000T 1.622.000T +4% 322.000T +8% - 8 % +1% 2.365.000T

  21. EU Market outlook 2012-2013: demand for processing No stocks either from AJC - strong market Apples for processing in selected countries estimated up by 28% despite lower crop

  22. APPLES PRODUCTION EUROPE : 16.1 Mln T) Europe in summary - 17 % - 5 % -28% -2% -26% +12 % +33% +4% -8% -16% +8% -31% -18% -2% -13% -22% + 1 % (Population Europe: 808.6 Mln)

  23. Southern Hemisphere & tentative 2012 global balance • Southern hemisphere: Berlin WAPA forecast -3%

  24. Southern Hemisphere & tentative 2012 global balance • Global overview 2012 -9 % -18 % +2% +2% -2 %

  25. EUROPEAN PEAR FORECAST 2012: MAIN TRENDS EUROPEAN UNION(EU-27)

  26. 2012 crop forecast • Production dramatically down to less than 2 mln T, the lowest in the past decade • 2012 production is 30% down last year and 26% down the last 3 years average Production for 2012 is forecasted to be at 1.844.000 T

  27. 2012 crop forecast – overview by MS • Up • CZ • HU • GR • Down • All • other

  28. 2012 crop forecast – overview by varieties …. All varieties are lower this year !

  29. PEAR FORECAST 2012: STATES/REGIONAL REVIEWEUROPE AT LARGE

  30. ITALY • Italy : • Production record low • Large physiological drop • Abate, one of the most significant reduction (-55% ) • Some impact of the earthquake

  31. South East • Greece • Increase of the production to 43.000 T due to good climatic conditions prevailing from spring to June • No major concerns with psylla, which however is not the main cause for the lower crop • Size to be on average • Season to start one week earlier than last year • Krystalli pear represent 40 % of production • Romania • 26.000 T, down 8% from 2011 • No late frost but soil drought in June and July • 13 % of production for processing • Normal sizing • No evolution of orchard

  32. South West • Spain • Production at 329.000 T (=new historic low) • All regions are decreasing except Murcia - Catalonia remains leader - affected by hail in July • On-going decline of Blanquilla (now 52.000 T compared to 200.000 T 10 years ago) • Conference larger variety at 136.000 T • Ercolini is the only “stable” variety • Portugal • Data are those of Pera Rocha Association – set at 109.000 T a decline by 48% to last year • Low temperature during fruit set, low number of fruits per tree. Physiological drop normal • Medium size

  33. Benelux • Belgium • Pear crop at 254.000 T . Complex climatic conditions in spring and summer • Conference is halted in its on-going development at 237.000 T • Some increase of pear orchard : + 3% ( more on conference representing 7.351 HA out of 8.579 HA) –Durondeau is decreasing by 5% • Picking normal , 2 weeks later than 2011 • The Netherlands • Together with 2008, one of the lowest crop ever at 198.000 T : down by 41% • Conference is set this year at 165.000 T down from peak 260.000 T , while Doyenne the second variety is most affected with a decline of production by 55% T • Differences in size, weak settings

  34. UK and France • France • Production at 123.000 T down by 30% • Williams and Guyot (both at 35.000 T) to be the two main varieties followed by Conference (19.000 T) • All affected by drop, respectively by 34%, 29% and 24% • UK • Volume at 28.000 T, 12% down from last year and 3 year average • Season time is 3 week later • Concern about russet • Difference in size ; No homogeneity • Larger % of crop expected to go to processing (32%)

  35. Qualitative remarks EU-27: Central and East • Poland • While recovering from last year peak low, production remain moderate at 55.000 T • Orchard dominated by Conference (35.000 T) • Germany • Low crop similar to small level of 2010 and 2008: Production forecasted at 38.000 T • Conference (9.000 T) and William BC (4.000 T) to be the main varieties • Hungary • As with apples, slight recovery at 26.000 T, lower % going to industry (32%) but in total higher volume (8.100 T) • Main variety is Bosc (8.500 T), followed by Williams (4.700 T)

  36. 2012 forecast – other NH countries & global overview • Other European regions: -6% • USA • down by ca 8% to total production but availability for fresh to be up by 9% • Winter pear up by 11% at 315.000 T; Williams / Bartletts continue to increase (up by 12%) at 128.000 T. Summer pears up 3% at 6.600 T • Smaller size due to cold wet spring – good colour. Delay in harvest by a week to 10 days • Organics = 3% of overall production • Southern Hemisphere was down by 10% • Global supply 2012 for selected countries down 4%

  37. SH 2012 export SHAFFE / WAPA forecast – Berlin February 2012 and trade development

  38. EU apple and pear supply 2012 • Total supply EU apple and pears, down 13% compared to 2011

  39. THANKS www.wapa-association.org www.prognosfruit.eu philippe@freshfel.org

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