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National Weather Service Fire Weather Program

National Weather Service Fire Weather Program. Heath Hockenberry National Weather Service National Fire Weather Program Manager. NWS Fire Weather Next Few Minutes. Why do we do Fire Weather? Products and Services Growing Demands The Future – Digital Services Our Customers/Partners

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National Weather Service Fire Weather Program

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  1. National Weather ServiceFire Weather Program Heath Hockenberry National Weather Service National Fire Weather Program Manager

  2. NWS Fire WeatherNext Few Minutes • Why do we do Fire Weather? • Products and Services • Growing Demands • The Future – Digital Services • Our Customers/Partners • Survey highlights

  3. NWS Fire WeatherWhy do we do it? Mission of the NWS… NOAA's National Weather Service provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community Mission of NWS Fire Weather… The objective of the National Weather Service Fire Weather Services Program is to provide fire weather products and services to the fire and land management community for the protection of life and property, promotion of firefighter safety, and stewardship of America’s public wildlands.

  4. NWS Fire WeatherThe fire triangle Where does Weather Fit? Fuels, Topography, and Weather are the 3 main components that affect fire behavior – weather is the most variable!

  5. NWS Fire WeatherProducts and Services • Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning Program • Fire Weather Planning Forecasts • Site specific spot forecasts • Consultation and technical advice in support of basic services

  6. NWS Fire WeatherProducts and Services • 147,000 elements forecasted per day (100 offices with 15 zones each, twice a day, with a 7 day forecast with 7 elements each) • Over 14,000 spot forecasts annually. • Over 8300 Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches issued annually

  7. NWS Fire WeatherProducts and Services NWS also provides on-site services for: • Wildfires • Federal Prescribed Burns • HAZMAT incidents Incident Meteorologists - IMETS

  8. NWS Fire WeatherProducts and Services Incident Meteorologists: • Experienced and qualified NWS meteorologists specially trained in fire weather forecasting • Each IMET receives at least 3 years of forecaster training, over 225 hours of fire weather classroom and OJT prior to becoming certified, and over 25 hours of fire weather refresher training annually • 65 IMETs nationwide

  9. NWS Fire WeatherGrowing Demands for Weather Support # of NWS Incident Meteorologists 1990s ~35 2006 65 ~13K person-hours on average

  10. NWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital Services Old way of business: one zone one forecast Zones IDZ011-013-080000- WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...(ZONES 401 402 403 404) INCLUDES PAYETTE NF AND BOISE NF- 930 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2003 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 TO 68...EXCEPT 67 TO 77 BELOW 4500 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........30 TO 45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 23 TO 33 PERCENT BELOW 4500 FEET. 20-FOOT WINDS....... VALLEYS..........NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. RIDGES...........WEST 12 TO 18 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. LAL.................1. CHC WETTING RAIN....0 PERCENT. SMOKE DISPERSAL: MIXING HEIGHT......5000-7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH. .TONIGHT... Typed by hand!

  11. NWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital Services How well does a zone forecast reflect the weather on the ground in in complex terrain? • Zone 11 in Idaho (WestCentral Mountains) – elevations range from 3 to 9K feet • Temperatures and humidities can range significantly across the zone, not to mention complex wind patterns

  12. NWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital Services Temperature 5KM 2.5KM

  13. NWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital Services This is the basic premise behind Digital Services and grids: You can get a forecast for virtually any point or area across the entire United States for a specific time or averaged in a time period

  14. NWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital Services Produce old stuff IDZ011-013-080000- WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...(ZONES 401 402 403 404) INCLUDES PAYETTE NF AND BOISE NF- 930 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2003 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 TO 68...EXCEPT 67 TO 77 BELOW 4500 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........30 TO 45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 23 TO 33 PERCENT BELOW 4500 FEET. 20-FOOT WINDS....... VALLEYS..........NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. RIDGES...........WEST 12 TO 18 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. LAL.................1. CHC WETTING RAIN....0 PERCENT. SMOKE DISPERSAL: MIXING HEIGHT......5000-7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH. .TONIGHT...

  15. NWS Fire WeatherThe Future - Digital Services

  16. NWS Fire WeatherThe Future - Digital Services

  17. NWS Fire WeatherOur Customers/Partners Partners Well Defined by Agency Firefighting and Resource Management Missions • Bureau of Land Management • Bureau of Indian Affairs • Fish and Wildlife Service • National Park Service • U.S. Forest Service • National Weather Service • National Association of State Foresters

  18. NWS Fire WeatherOur Customers/Partners National Regional Local Customers/Partners at all levels!

  19. Survey BackgroundMeasurement timetable

  20. Project BackgroundData Collection Respondents • Web invitations sent to 1185 folks and 384 responded • Fire weather focal points provided email addresses for their primary users • A small number of Bureau of Indian Affairs individuals also had to have their survey mailed because of the shutdown of the web access. • Links to the survey were placed on the home page (first page) of all Western Region offices and on the fire weather page of all NWS offices • 1072 responses collected • 1456 total responses collected

  21. ACSI 76 Overall Satisfaction with National Fire Weather Program 80 ATTRIBUTES National Fire Weather Program compared to expectations 73 73 National Fire Weather ProgramCustomer Satisfaction Results 2005 National Fire Weather Program compared to the ideal • “Could not do my job without them.” • “Keep up the good work. Lives depend on your information.”

  22. Key Findings Summary • NWS National Fire Weather Program currently scoring well • Key drivers of satisfaction at this point in time • Staff Interaction (impact = 1.6) • Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) (impact = 2.2) • Core strengths at this point in time • Staff Interaction -- local and national/regional (score = 83) • Red Flag Warning Program (score = 81) • Site-Specific (spot) Forecasts (score = 80)

  23. Staff InteractionHuman interaction a key strength Impact: 1.6 n=824

  24. Product Use Frequency FWF used most frequently “Since a lot of the users … are volunteer fire services, could you filter some of the scientific language and put it in terms for people who do not work full time at predicting fire behavior?”

  25. Areas for Focus Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF)Key driver of satisfaction (impact = 2.2) “The simplest format for conveying specific information is the one I prefer. The FWF has been useful and does not require a great deal of interpretation…simpler is better. Get me accurate, timely information in an easy-to-use format.” n=1,035 74% said their local FWF contains a trend forecast

  26. Experimental Products and Product Format Respondents asked how likely to use … “I have seen fire fighters on the line question less informed ‘overheads’ decision making, based on information we received via a palm pilot. Not only was the ‘overhead’ impressed with our information gathering skills, and our use of fancy gadgets, he changed the action we were to take.” Dry lightning potential graphics Score: 70 Transport Wind and Mixing Height Graphics Score: 66 Point forecast matrices for fire weather Score: 65

  27. Key Findings/Recommendations

  28. Key Findings/Recommendations • NWS Fire Weather Program currently scoring well; strong base from which to continue building • Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) used most frequently, and is the biggest driver of satisfaction (2.2) for majority of respondents. While 78 is a strong score, the top priority should be on improving the FWF. • Focus on applying both the trend and specific forecasts equally in the product (70% indicate that is what they want). • To the extent possible, work to improve the accuracy of information, or setting reasonable expectations (one customer verbatim suggests to include a margin of error with products). • Those who use for Agriculture (64) and Education (63) rate the lowest. These are low sample sizes, however, so interpret these findings with caution. • Staff Interaction the highest scoring (83) and one of the biggest drivers of satisfaction (1.6). Work to maintain this high level of service—a decline in score will have a negative effect on satisfaction. • While still scoring strong (77 local and 79 national), accuracy of information provided leaves some room for improvement. • Nearly half indicate they don’t have contact at local/national level. Is this something that you want to/can increase?

  29. Key Findings/Recommendations cont. • Red Flag Warning Program a core strength (81). Impact is 0.5. Work to maintain. • Depending on internal goals, verbatims indicate some education may be necessary (e.g., proper procedures for a watch; defining what a well established fuels input into the Red Flag Program entails). • Verbatims indicate that perceived consistency is a challenge: “It seems that bordering or adjacent NWS offices use different parameters/weather values when issuing Red Flag Warnings.” Is this a reality or just a perception issue? Provides an opportunity to communicate how/why parameters differ. • Site-Specific (spot) Forecasts also a core strength (80). Maintain the strong work. Further improvement in this area will not impact satisfaction at this time. Focus on other previously mentioned areas. • The Weather Planner had the fewest respondents (660) and is low impact. If this is a fairly new product, it could be a lack of awareness. In which case, promoting the product is recommended. • While the LAL is not currently a top priority for improvement, it is the lowest scoring product. This may become an issue once other priorities are fixed.

  30. Key Findings/Recommendations cont. • ‘Accuracy’ scores the lowest among all measured areas. There are those who understand that ‘it is not an exact science’. However, one verbatim offers the following suggestion: • “Some forecasters are more accurate than others … If there is some way to increase accuracy through better training, experience, understanding of the relationship between fire and weather and how we rely on these forecasts for our life satefy, as well as encouraging those who are interested in fire weather forecasting to pursue it…would go a long way towards increasing accuracy”. • Further investigate verbatim comments for additional insight. Key themes include: • Better consistency among areas/offices • Improved understanding of how needs differ based on geography • Overarching concern that funding will be cut and the quality of the service will suffer • More education for the general public on how fires and wildfire events affect day to day life. • 18% (76) of those who had no contact with the NWS local fire weather staff did not know what action to take when they saw a fire weather watch; 16% (70) did not know what action to take when they saw a Red Flag Warning

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