Frank Raes Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre

1. on the link between global (climate) change research and policy making Frank Raes Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre European Commission 28 June 2005, Brussels

2. Kyoto Protocol into force Kyoto Protocol UNFCCC charles david keeling

3. emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO energy demand & supply socio economic drivers fossil fuel use costc GHG emissions cost effective climate change policy yes no

4. “economy” and climate changesome numbers • economic damage of floods in 2002: ~17 billion € (EEA) • crop loss and forest fires in 2003: ~ 13 billion € (UNEP) • heat related casualties in 2003: ~ 35.000 (UNEP) (35 billion € …) • cost of implementing Kyoto Protocol in EU25: ~ 1 to 3.5 billion €/yr • cost for security measures at 2004 Olympic Games: ~ 1 billion € • money spent by Italians in Lotterie, etc in 2004: 23 billion € • net profit made by BP in 2004: 12 billion € • Tsunami solidarity funds promised by world: 3 -5 billion € • World can cope with (= adapt to) present effects of climate change! • BUT: are there limits to adaptation to future climate change? • Implementing the Kyoto Protocol (= start mitigation) is feasible! • BUT: how much mitigation is needed to stabilize climate • at “safe” levels ?

5. emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO energy demand & supply socio economic drivers fossil fuel use costc GHG emissions cost effective climate change policy yes no

6. avoid dangerous climate change ? definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico post KYOTO energy demand & supply socio economic drivers fossil fuel use costc GHG emissions cost effective climate change policy yes yes no no

7. EU 2 C target definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico post KYOTO energy demand & supply socio economic drivers fossil fuel use costc GHG emissions cost effective climate change policy yes yes no no

8. IPCC TAR

10. CO2 emission reductions needed to achieve EU 2 ºC objective • current technologies that • reduce each 25 GtC over next 50 yrs • efficient cars • reduced car use • efficient buildings • coal to methane switch • coal + CO2 capture and storage • nuclear energy • wind energy • photo-voltaic • bio-fuels • reduced deforestation, reforestation • conservation tillage A2 CO2 Emissions (GtC) 200 GtC B1 Pacala & Socolow, Science 305, 2004 stabilization at 450 CO2 equivalent ~50 % probability to achieve 2 ºC Malte Meinshausen, ETH, Zurich

11. emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? energy demand & supply end-of-pipe control technology definizione di una politica integrata no yes socio economic drivers fossil fuel use levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution costc cost saving GHG emissions integrated cost effective policy yes no

12. avoid dangereous climate change ? effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? energy demand & supply end-of-pipe control technology definizione di una politica integrata no yes socio economic drivers fossil fuel use levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution costc cost saving GHG emissions integrated cost effective policy yes no

13. effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? end-of-pipe control technology definizione di una politica per combattere l’inquinamento atmosferico e.g.: National Emission Ceilings Directive no yes fossil fuel use levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution costA cost effective air pollution policy

14. emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? energy demand & supply end-of-pipe control technology definizione di una politica integrata no yes socio economic drivers fossil fuel use levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution costc cost saving GHG emissions integrated cost effective policy yes no

15. IGAC EUROTRAC EC DG RTD projects EUROTRAC IGAC IGAC EUROTRAC WGE’s EMEP EC DG RTD projects EUROTRAC IGAC EC DG ENV CLTRAP FCCC COMPARTIMENTALIZATION IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2001 local scales regional scales global scales top-down bottom up fundamental research applied research research policy making

16. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2005 the overall goals of ACCENT are: • to promote a common European strategy for integrated research local to global scales atmospheric change / economic drivers • to develop durable means of communication and collaboration between a broad research community • to optimize the interactions with policy-makers and the public

18. 2005 Linking Science and Policy 2000 1995 1990 integrated assessment scientific integration public awareness scientific research 1985 policy making politics 1980 1975

19. 2005 Linking Science and Policy 2000 1995 1990 integrated assessment scientific integration public awareness scientific research 1985 policy making politics 1980 1975

20. ozone hole US heat wave CO2 record Mauna Loa Climate Change Science and Policy IPCC 2005 IGBP 2000 Marrakech IPCC SBSTA COP Kyoto 1995 IPCC FCCC 1990 integrated assessment scientific integration public awareness scientific research 1985 policy making acid rain politics 1980 1975

21. GLOBALCHANGE priority THE AMSTERDAM DECLARATION July 2001 WCRP IGBP IHDP DIVERSITAS The busines-as-usual way of dealing with the Earth is unsustainable and has to be replaced by deliberate strategies of good management A new system of global environmental science is required which must integrate across disciplines, environment and development issues, and the natural and social sciences = POLICY ! = INTERACTION between SCIENCE and POLICY !