WILL PUBLISHING SURVIVE AS WE KNOW IT? CARDIFF UNIVERSITY

1. WILL PUBLISHING SURVIVE AS WE KNOW IT?CARDIFF UNIVERSITY Robert Campbell Senior Publisher Wiley-Blackwell 1 May 2007

2. The Traditional Role of a Journal As established by Henry Oldenburg secretary of the Royal Society and founder of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (1665) • Registration • Dissemination • Archive • Certification And the modern researcher wants • Speed • Quality • Readership • Permanence

3. Reason for choosing last journal Ian Rowlands and Dave Nicholas. New Journal Publishing Models: An international survey of Senior Researchers. A CIBER Report for the Publishers Association and International Association of STM Publishers. 2005

4. The rise, fall and rise in circulation ONLINE & HARD COPY Circulation HARD COPY ONLY Year

5. Percentage of researchers who rate different kinds of digital resource provided by their institutional library as “very useful” From Researchers’ Use of Academic Libraries and their Services: Commissioned by RIN/CURL. 2007

6. Journals Overview Global Revenues: c.$6.5billion Growth rate: 3.5% p.a. by article No of titles: c.25,000 peer reviewed active learned journals No of publishers: c.2000 journal publishers of whom top 20 represent 64% of articles (Wiley-Blackwell produces10.5% of articles and is no. 2 after Elsevier at 24%)

7. Research and Development Global Expenditure: $1,000 billion Growth rate: 3.5%pa in OECD areas No of researchers: 5.5 million No of articles: 1.6 million

8. Greater funding - greater accountability • Funders need to be able to track output • Dissemination and public access added to mission • Scholarly or research communication emerging as a subject, eg Research Information Network (RIN - UK), Publishing Research Consortium (PRC), International Congress on Peer Review • Wider government and community interest

9. Open Access Movement Open Access (OA) is free, permanent online access to the full text of research articles for anyone, worldwide. Driven by: • Claims of a ‘serials crisis’ (libraries cannot afford rising prices of journals) • View that research can be accelerated by OA • Political pressure to make results of research funded by tax payer freely available • The ‘expectations’ revolution

10. Two roads to Open Access ‘Golden Road’ Basically pay-to-publish. Journals provide OA by charging the author/institution. Some publishers simply make their online edition free for all. ‘Green Road’ Authors archive their articles in an Institutional Repository or a Subject Repository for free access over the internet. Publishers usually set an embargo (eg article can be self-archived no sooner than 12 months after publication) although there is pressure to reduce the length of embargo.

11. Pay-to-Publish • May lead to lower standards • Barrier to authorship • Apart from Wellcome Trust funding uncertain • 14 publishers offer this option within “hybrid” model • Sustainability?

12. Self-archiving “Tax payers have the right to access research they have already paid for. Indeed they do. They can look at exactly what they have paid for – which is research up to the stage of pre-prints. They have not, however, paid for peer-review, copy editing, composition or any other value that a publisher adds.” Peter Banks (26/1/07)

13. Self-archiving Is an embargo of 6 months sustainable? a) 53% (rising to 81% in the next five years) of librarians surveyed saw availability of content via OA archives as an important or very important factor in determining cancellation. Ware, Mark. ALPSP survey of librarians on factors in journal cancellations (2006) b) Self-archiving and Journal Subscriptions; Co-existence or Competition? An International Survey of Librarians’ Preferences Chris Beckett & Simon Inger funded by PRC (Publishing Research Consortium) http://www.publishingresearch.org.uk/PRCweb/PRCweb.nsf/e637be326ce8018380256ad20058e462/8e87fcd6bb8573f680257220005836ee!OpenDocument

14. Self-archiving Finding 1 The majority of librarians will cancel if 100% of content is OA on publication and even with an embargo of 6 months.

15. Self-archiving The share of preference for a paid-for-final-published article versus an Open Access article assuming 100% of content is available on archives (where 40% of articles are available by Open Access on publication 43% as opposed to 27% of librarians’ preference is for the paid for journal).

16. Self-archiving Finding 2 Peer reviewed content is strongly preferred. Widely available pre-prints do not threaten subscriptions but the author’s copy of the post peer review articles does.

17. Self-archiving

18. Self-archiving Is there a difference between the author's post peer review copy of an article and the final published version?

19. Self-archiving Are there real differences between the author’s version of an article and the publisher’s version. An analysis of the copy-editing function Edwards Wates & Robert Campbell in Learned Publishing (vol 20, 121-129, 2007) 189 articles were reviewed from 23 journals

20. Self-archiving Average number of typographical changes and other major changes to proofs, together with the average number of changes to the copy-editing.

21. Self-archiving Analysis of the types of change made by authors in response to 110 copy-editor queries

22. First Look at Economics

23. Self-archiving Perhaps users care JISC Disciplinary Differences Report Rightscom. 2005.

24. Self-archiving “What is the single most essential resource you use, the one that you would be lost without?”

25. Self-archiving Some detail

26. Self-archiving And more subject variation

27. Self-archiving Patterns of downloading articles after publication TRA (A molecular journal) PHIN (A philosophy journal)

28. It’s in the stars - productive co-existence exists Articles from four core astronomy journals Dec 2004, published 4 months after the arXiv e-print. Reads per paper from Aug 2004 to Jun 2006

29. Will Institutional and Subject Repositories replace Journals? IRs Unlikely as status and peer review issues SRs eg PubMed Central linked to peer review run by societies Could become part of the picture but funding issues

30. Researchers’ perceptions of the usefulness of institutional repositories From Researchers’ Use of Academic Libraries and their Services: Commissioned by RIN/CURL. 2007

31. New Models (enhanced scholarly publishing) • NSF driven “Cyberinfrastructure”, similar to e-science in Europe. “Will advance discovery, learning and innovation…” • RIOJA – repository interface for overlaid journal archives. Will support automated interactions between journals and public repositories. JISC funded • SURFshare incorporating research data into the literature with articles becoming a form of metadata of the published research results • StORe: Source-to-Output Repositories – a UK project linking journals to data repositories • NVO – National Virtual Observatory with John Hopkins linking articles, data and images • BioLit – Open Source tools for integrating biological literature and databases. University of California – San Diego • SWAN – Semantic Web Applications in Neuromedicine, claims that their “knowledge bases” will replace journals • Neurocommons – mines PubMedCentral abstracts for genes, proteins and compound relationships. Treats the literature itself as data.

32. Conclusion • Journals are thriving • Pay-to-publish models could become part of the hybrid model • Mandated self-archiving on or near publication could destabilize the publishing process more quickly in some subjects than others • Journals may develop new services/features for funding bodies, ie adapt to a new stakeholder • Journals should evolve, eg to be read by machines (text mining) and interface with data repositories • Models for who will pay how need to keep pace with journal development