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Section Three. Why Asset Allocation Matters. The Phillips Group of. A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC. Our Investment Philosophy. Individual Investors Have Underperformed Benchmarks. Annualized Returns 1985–2005. S&P 500. Inflation. Average Stock Fund Investor.
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Section Three Why Asset Allocation Matters The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Individual Investors Have Underperformed Benchmarks Annualized Returns1985–2005 S&P 500 Inflation Average Stock Fund Investor Average BondFundInvestor Lehman Aggregate Bond Index The Phillips Group of *THE ABOVE PRICES, QUOTES, YIELDS, ETC. HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE TO BE RELIABLE, BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED. ERRORS AND OMISSIONS EXCEPTED. A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Step One: The Importance of Asset Allocation • The Phillips Group believes that portfolios should be managed in accordance with a strategic asset allocation plan that thoroughly reflects an investor’s long-term objectives and risk tolerance. • Research has shown that allocation of assets among stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents is the primary determinant of long-term investment results. Since each asset class responds differently to shifts in the economy and financial markets, each asset class adds its own dimension to a portfolio’s performance. Active and effective allocation is the key to enhancing results. • Many non-U.S. stocks and bonds have historically had relatively low correlations with U.S. stocks and bonds as well as with each other. A carefully selected portfolio of domestic and international securities offers significant diversification opportunities while potentially lowering the portfolio’s volatility and increasing its returns. The Brinson, Hood & Beebower Study, conducted in 1987, and updated in 1991, found that nearly 92% of the variation in pension funds' returns from 1977 to 1987 were attributable to the asset allocation decision. Source Ibbotson Associates. Note Study based on ten years of quarterly data. Cross products account for 2.1% of the variance. The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Step Two: Combine Low Correlated Assets 1984–2005 High Correlation 1.0 US Growth US Value US Small-Cap International REITs High Yield Intermediate-Term Bonds Short-Term Bonds No Correlation 0 Cash The Phillips Group of *THE ABOVE PRICES, QUOTES, YIELDS, ETC. HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE TO BE RELIABLE, BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED. ERRORS AND OMISSIONS EXCEPTED. A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy The Benefit of Low Correlation US Stocks US Bonds Dec 68–Jun 70 Jan 73–Sep 74 Jan 77–Feb 78 Dec 80–Jul 82 Sep 87–Nov 87 Jun 90–Oct 90 May 98–Aug 98 Apr 00–Mar 03 Average (29.2)% (42.7) (14.2) (17.2) (29.6) (14.7) (13.4) (40.9) (25.2)% 2.2% 4.6 1.5 21.7 2.3 5.2 4.7 36.5 9.8% The Phillips Group of *THE ABOVE PRICES, QUOTES, YIELDS, ETC. HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE TO BE RELIABLE, BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED. ERRORS AND OMISSIONS EXCEPTED. A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Why Stock and Bond Combinations 1970−2005 100% Stocks 60/40 30/70 100% Bonds Risk (%) The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Step Three: Combine Growth and Value Annualized Returns Value Stocks Growth Stocks The Phillips Group of *THE ABOVE PRICES, QUOTES, YIELDS, ETC. HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE TO BE RELIABLE, BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED. ERRORS AND OMISSIONS EXCEPTED. A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Step Four: Globalize the Portfolio 1970−2004 Volatility (%) % in Foreign Stocks Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Through December 31, 2004 US Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index of stocks. Foreign stocks are represented by the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) EAFE Index. The chart presents various combinations of the US and Foreign Stock components, including the highlighted 70% U.S/30% foreign combination. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its results are not indicative of any investment, including the Wealth Strategies Funds. Volatility is defined as the annualized standard deviation of portfolio returns for the period from 1970 to 2004. Source: MSCI, Standard & Poor’s and AllianceBernstein. The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Larger Universe of Opportunity Non-US Share of IndustryBy Market Value: December 31, 2005 Examples Toyota Daimler Chrysler 82% HSBC Holdings UBS 72% BP Shell 60% International investing is subject to certain risks not associated with domestic investing, such as currency fluctuations and changes in political and economic conditions Source: MSCI World Index The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy US Multinationals Do Not Diversify as Well Correlations with US Stock Market 1975–2004 Performance in step with S&P 500 1.00 Multinational US Companies % of Sales Outside US 0.87 ExxonMobil 79% AFLAC 75 Intel 71 Motorola 68 Coca-Cola 68 Colgate-Palmolive 67 Avon 65 McDonald’s 65 Gillette 61 IBM 60 EAFE Index 0.56 No relationship with S&P 500 0 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Through December 31, 2004Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) EAFE Index, unhedged Indexes are unmanaged and do not include fees and expenses associated with an investment in a mutual fund. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its results are not indicative of any specific investment including any AllianceBernstein mutual fund. See page 39 for a description of each index. Source: MSCI, Standard & Poor’s and AllianceBernstein The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Ancillary Services Step Five: Rebalance Higher Probability Rebalancing increases the consistency of returns Rebalanced Rebalancing reduces the likelihood of bad outcomes Unrebalanced Unrebalanced Rebalancing increases the median return Lower Probability Median Return The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Step Five: Rebalance Hypothetical Average Annual Return1970–2004 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The chart above shows the average annual historical return of an investment in “growth” stocks and “value” stocks (as defined below) where the investors decision to time the growth or value cycle, on an annual basis, is shown in percentages of how correct in hindsight their timing to switch was. A 50/50 blend investment with automatic rebalancing annually is in yelow. The “growth” and “value” stocks used in this presentation are determined as follows: beginning with all publicly traded stocks on the US stock exchanges (not just the S&P 500), the 30% of stocks with the highest price-to-book ratios represent “Growth.” The 30% of the stocks with the lowest price-to-book ratios represent “Value.” The middle 40% of the companies are excluded. These returns do not include fees and expenses associated with an investment in a mutual fund. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its results are not indicative of the performance for any specific investment, including any AllianceBernstein mutual fund. *Assumes an attempt to market time but invest in the lower performer (value or growth) during the years in which the difference between the two was highest, missing the best 33% or best 50% Source: Fama/French and AllianceBernstein The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC
Our Investment Philosophy Blending Styles Adds Consistency % of Time Rebalanced 50/50 Blend Outperformed the S&P 500 1970–2005 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Rolling periods are measured from January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2004 The 50/50 growth and value composite is a hypothetical composite comprising 50% “growth stocks” (i.e., the top 30% of all stocks publicly traded on American exchanges ranked by price-to-book ratios) and 50% value stocks (i.e., the bottom 30% of such stocks). The 50/50 portfolio is rebalanced monthly, as necessary, to maintain its growth and value proportions; transaction charges for rebalancing are not taken into account Source: Fama/French, Standard & Poors The Phillips Group of A Division of Wiley Bros. – Aintree Capital, LLC