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Missing Person Behaviour

Missing Person Behaviour. Robert Bradley ISIS SAR, Oct 2009. Aim. To give you an overview of Missing Person Behaviour Statistics; their history, methodology and how YOU can use them!. History. 1783 – Father Lorenzo, Switzerland 1975 – Syrotuck, Washington & New York

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Missing Person Behaviour

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  1. Missing Person Behaviour Robert BradleyISIS SAR, Oct 2009

  2. Aim To give you an overview ofMissing Person Behaviour Statistics;their history, methodology andhow YOU can use them!

  3. History • 1783 – Father Lorenzo, Switzerland • 1975 – Syrotuck, Washington & New York • 1991 – Ken Hill, Nova Scotia • 1992 – Robert Koester, Virginia • 2002 – Perkins, Roberts & Feeney, MR • 2007 – Gibb & Woolnough, Grampian • 2008 – ISRID

  4. ISRID Included; A Report or Incident in which a “Search and Rescue” organization was involved. Formally collected and recorded

  5. ISRID Excluded; Self-reports Media only reports Law Enforcement only

  6. ISRID Over 50,000 incidents Australia - 556 New Zealand - 2460 UK - 689 Others include Switzerland, South Africa and Canada as well as the US.

  7. What do they tell us? Distance from IPP Elevation Change Mobility Dispersion Find Location Scenario Survivability Track Offset

  8. What don’t they tell us? And other lost person behaviour myths Turning in the direction of the dominant hand Searching around the median Lost persons travel downhill Over 65s are one category Where to find the misper!

  9. How do we use them? Differently depending on level of searcher…

  10. Search Manager / Controller To put YOU in the right place to searchin the right order… Terms like Probability of Area (POA) and Probability Density (Pden)

  11. Team Leader / Search Technician To search the right placesin the right way… Terms like Terrain Analysis, Track Offset, Search Techniques and Tactics

  12. But they are just tables of figures.. How am I supposed to understand them?

  13. Distance from IPP

  14. Distance from IPP

  15. Probability of Area Probability of Area (POA) 25% 25% 25%

  16. Search Areas Area of Circle A = π r2 200m circle’s Area π x 2002 ≈ 126,000m2 Or π x 0.22 ≈ 0.126km2

  17. 200 – 500m Search Area 200-500 m Circle’s Area Either Area of 500m circle take away Area of 200m circle Or A = π (R + r) (R –r)

  18. So… 200-500 m Circle’s Area 200m Area ≈ 0.126km2 500m Area ≈ 0.785km2 The Doughnut Area ≈ 0.785 – 0.126 ≈ 0.659km2

  19. Three Search Area Sizes Search Areas 200m Area ≈ 0.126km2 200-500m Area ≈ 0.659km2 500-800m Area ≈ 1.23km2

  20. Probability Density Probability Density(Pden) = POA / Area200m Pden ≈ 25 / 0.126km2≈ 198 200-500m Area ≈ 25 / 0.659km2 ≈ 38 500-800m Area ≈ 25 / 1.23km2≈ 20

  21. Probability Density - Visually

  22. Another set of figures… Track Offset Data How far off the route, pathor track the misper willbe found…

  23. Track Offset Probability of Area (POA) 25% 25% 25%

  24. Track Offset Density Probability Density (Pden) 25 / 0.01 = 2500 25 / 0.004 = 6250 25 / 0.034 = 735

  25. More Figures Survivability How long our misper maysurvive unless we findthem…

  26. Let’s visualise them

  27. Or…

  28. Now it’s your turn… Area of circle = π r2 Area of doughnut = Large circle – smaller circle Probability Density = POA / Area

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