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David Cantor, The Glover Park Group November 16, 2012

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. ELECTION 2012 Post-Election Analysis. David Cantor, The Glover Park Group November 16, 2012. Takeaways. Trends and momentum matter Obama maintained 2008 coalition

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David Cantor, The Glover Park Group November 16, 2012

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  1. The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE ELECTION 2012 Post-Election Analysis David Cantor, The Glover Park GroupNovember 16,2012

  2. Takeaways • Trends and momentum matter • Obama maintained 2008 coalition • Coalition supplemented by auto-bailout • Role of the economy • Incumbency, organization, targeting, and math won • Partisan primaries cost Republicans • Still… close election and closely divided country THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 2

  3. PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS What Happened? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 3

  4. A RECAP OF THE 2008 ELECTION Obama 365 McCain 173 11 NH 4 VT 3 4 3 3 10 7 OR MN NH 4 31 3 10 MA 12 3 17 21 7 4 RI 4 5 20 1 21 11 5 55 5 9 CO CT 7 NJ 15 13 6 8 11 KY 15 11 NC MD 10 DE 3 10 7 6 5 NM 8 DC 3 GA 15 6 9 AK 34 9 3 27 4 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 4

  5. 2012 ELECTION RESULTS– OBAMA ONLY LOSES TWO STATES FROM 2008 MAP Party change from ‘08 Obama 332 Romney 206 12 NH 4 VT 3 4 3 3 10 7 OR MN NH 4 29 3 10 MA 12 3 16 20 6 5 RI 4 6 18 20 11 6 55 5 9 CO CT 7 NJ 15 13 6 8 10 KY 15 11 NC MD 10 DE 3 11 7 6 5 NM 9 DC 3 GA 16 6 9 AK 3 38 8 29 4 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 5

  6. SENATE: POST-ELECTION – DEMS GAIN TWO SEATS Democrats: 55 (+2) Republicans: 45 (-2) Warren(D): 53.7% Brown (R-i): 46.3% OR MN NH Donelly (D): 49.9% Mourdock(R): 44.4% King (D/I): 53.0% Summers (R): 30.6% Dill (D): 13.1% CO Fischer(R): 58.2% Kerrey (D): 41.8% KY NC NM GA AK THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 6 Source: CNN

  7. Trends and Momentum THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 7

  8. 2007-2008 OBAMA vs. MCCAIN HEAD TO HEAD THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 8

  9. 2008 NL EAST RACE Mets Phillies Nats THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 9

  10. OBAMA JUMPED AHEAD OF ROMNEY IN CLOSING DAYS THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 10 Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

  11. 2012 NL EAST RACE Nats Phillies Mets THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 11

  12. PREDICTION MARKET (AND BETTING $) CONSISTENTLY FAVORED OBAMA THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 12 Source: InTrade

  13. STARTING IN AUGUST, AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Getting better Staying the Same Getting worse THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 13 Source: CBS News Poll, October 17-20, 2012

  14. NUMBER WHO THOUGHT COUNTRY WAS ON THE WRONG TRACK TRENDED DOWN LEADING INTO THE ELECTION As of November 6, 2012 A Look Back Source: NBC News/WSJ WRONG TRACK 52.8% Source: NBC News/WSJ Source: NBC News/WSJ Source: NBC News/WSJ RIGHT DIRECTION 41.5% Source: NBC News/WSJ Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 14

  15. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED AS ELECTION APPROACHED, VARIED WIDELY IN SWING STATES 2009 2010 2011 2012 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan 2009 – October 2012

  16. OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL TRENDED UP AS RACE ENTERED THE HOME STRETCH APPROVE Nov 3-5 DISAPPROVE Each result is based on a three-day rolling average THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 16 Source: Gallup Poll Daily Tracking

  17. PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS How Did It Happen? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 17

  18. Demographics and the 2008 Coalition THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 18

  19. WHITE VOTE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS % OF ELECTORATRE Hispanic vote growing And trending toward Obama THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 19 Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

  20. LATINO TURNOUT UP TWO POINTS, SUPPORT FOR OBAMA STRENGTHENS FROM 2008 The Latino vote grew, especially in Florida and Nevada Obama’s margins increased – especially in Florida and Colorado THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 20 Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

  21. SHIFT AWAY FROM OBAMA AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS EXCEPT 30-44 YEAR OLDS THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 21 Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

  22. GENDER DIVIDE WIDENS TO 18 POINTS FROM 12 IN 2008 2008 2012 2004 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 22 Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

  23. PARTISAN DIVIDE REMAINS STEADY FROM 2008 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 23 Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

  24. PRESIDENT OBAMA’S SUPPORT OF THE AUTO BAILOUT HELPED HIM IN CRITICAL SWING STATES How do you feel about the federal government's aid to U.S. automakers? Michigan Wisconsin Ohio 60% 53% 62% Approve Approve Approve +53D +59D +48D THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 24 Source: 2012 Exit Polls

  25. The Economy THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 25

  26. ECONOMIC CONCERNS DRIVE ELECTORAL AGENDA What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? Results <4% not shown THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 26 Source: Gallup Poll, October 15-16, 2012

  27. “THE ECONOMY” WAS #1 ISSUE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED ROMNEY, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THE WIN THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 27 Source: 2012 Exit Polls

  28. BUT A DEEPER DIVE ON ECONOMIC MEASURES SHOWS ROMNEY ONLY OUTPERFORMS ON TAXES Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 28 Source: 2012 Exit Polls

  29. FEW ARE SEEING PROGRESS FINANCIALLY, BUSH STILL BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation: Obama wins among those who believe things are the same from four years ago. Who is more to blame for current economic problems? Voters still blame George Bush for current economic problems. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 29 Source: CNN and MSNBC exit polls

  30. SINCE 2010 MAJORITY HAVE BLAMED BUSH FOR THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC PROMBLEMS Do you think the policies of Barack Obama and the Democrats or George W. Bush and the Republicans are more responsible for the country's current economic problems? Bush and the Republicans Obama and the Democrats Both Equally Neither/ No opinion * Sept 2012 asked of likely voters, other dates asked of all Americans.. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 30 Source: CNN Poll, Sept 7-9, 2012.

  31. BUSH ADMINISTARTION AND WALL STREET STILL BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Who do you think is mostly to blame for the current state of the nation’s economy – (1) the Bush Administration, (2) the Obama Administration, (3) Wall Street and financial institutions, (4) Congress, or (5) someone else? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 31 Source: CBS News Poll, March 18-21, 2011

  32. ROMNEY WINS ON NEARLY ALL TRAITS, YET OBAMA STILL WON ELECTION Total Spread Has a vision for the future • +9R 29% Shares my values +13R 27% Cares about people like me +63D 21% Is a strong leader +23R 18% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 32 Source: 2012 Exit Polls

  33. EMPATHY TRUMPS ECONOMY? Split on economy Obama more in touch with voters THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 33 Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

  34. Incumbency, Organization, Targeting, and Math THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 34

  35. ROMNEY HAD CLEAR $ ADVANTAGE IN ADVERTISING… Romney Swing State Advertising Spending Advantage +$108.2 million Barack Obama Total Spending: $389.3 million Campaign Spending: $333.4 million PAC Spending: $64.2 million Mitt Romney Total Spending: $497.5 million Campaign Spending: $196.4 million PAC Spending: $301.0 million THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 35 Source: National Journal

  36. …BUT OBAMA’S GROUND GAME ADVANTAGE WAS STAGGERING AND CRITICAL TO HIS SUCCESS Obama Field Offices 596 Romney Field Offices 205 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 36 Source: Obama and Romney Websites

  37. OBAMA’S VOTER CONTACT EFFORTS GREATLY EXCEEDED ROMNEY’S AND MAY HAVE PERSUADED LATE DECIDERS When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? Obama Campaign made 125 million personal contacts* Romney Campaign made 50 million personal contacts** *Since the last election **Since the spring THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 37 Source: Obama and Romney Campaigns

  38. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 38

  39. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: VIEW OF GOVERNMENT THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 39 Source: 2012 Exit Polls

  40. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: 2010 HEALTH CARE LAW THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 40 Source: 2012 Exit Polls

  41. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: INCOME TAXES U.S. Economic System THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 41 Source: 2012 Exit Polls

  42. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: IMMIGRATION Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be: THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 42 Source: 2012 Exit Polls

  43. THE FISCAL CLIFF SEEN AS THREAT TO BOTH NATIONAL AND PERSONAL FINANCES If these automatic spending cuts and tax increases go into effect, do you think they would have a major effect, minor effect or no effect on the [U.S. economy/your own financial situation]? ASKED OF THOSE WHO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN EFFECT: And would the effect on the [U.S. economy/your own financial situation] be mostly positive or mostly negative? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 43 Source: Pew Research Center, Nov. 8-11,2012.

  44. PUBLIC SKEPTICAL ABOUT AGREEMENT; MORE WOULD BLAME REPUBLICANS Do you think President Obama and Republicans will reach an agreement to prevent automatic spending cuts and tax increases from going into effect before January 1st, or not? If an agreement is not reached, who do you think would be more to blame: Republicans in Congress or President Obama? Dems more optimistic on deal Independents more likely to blame Republican Congress THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 44 Source: Pew Research Center, Nov. 8-11,2012.

  45. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 45

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