1 / 32

ECONOMIC POLICY AND GOVERNANCE: SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED

ECONOMIC POLICY AND GOVERNANCE: SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED. The Asian century - The Shift to the East, accelerated by the GFC. Share of Global GDP for Asia and ROW. (Million 1990 international $) Source: Maddison and OECD. Share of Global GDP for parts of Asia.

chogan
Download Presentation

ECONOMIC POLICY AND GOVERNANCE: SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ECONOMIC POLICY AND GOVERNANCE: SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED • The Asian century - The Shift to the East, accelerated by the GFC

  2. Share of Global GDP for Asia and ROW (Million 1990 international $) Source: Maddison and OECD

  3. Share of Global GDP for parts of Asia (Million 1990 international $) Source: Maddison and OECD

  4. Table 5 China in the world economy, 1300–2030 AD China Japan India Western Europe USA World China/World Year Population (million) Ratio 1300 100.0 10.5 88.0 58.4 1.7 360.0 0.28 1500 103.0 15.4 110.0 57.3 2.0 438.4 0.23 1820 381.0 31.0 209.0 133.0 10.0 1,041.8 0.37 1913 437.1 51.7 303.7 261.0 97.6 1,791.1 0.24 1950 546.8 83.8 359.0 304.9 152.3 2,524.3 0.22 1973 881.9 108.7 580.0 358.8 211.9 3,916.5 0.23 2003 1,288.4 127.2 1,049.7 394.6 290.3 6,278.6 0.21 2030 1,458.0 121.0 1,421.0 400.0 364.0 8,175.0 0.18 Per Capita GDP (1990 international $) 1300 600 475 500 593 400 530 1.13 1500 600 500 550 771 400 566 1.06 1820 600 669 533 1,204 1,257 667 0.90 1913 552 1,387 673 3,458 5,301 1,526 0.36 1950 439 1,921 619 4,579 9,561 2,111 0.21 1973 839 11,434 852 11,416 16,689 4,091 0.21 2003 4,392 21,218 2,160 19,912 29,037 6,432 0.68 2030 14,416 27,758 6,227 30,566 44,574 11,207 1.29 GDP (billion, 1990 international $) 1300 60.0 5.0 44.0 34.6 0.7 190.0 0.32 1500 61.8 7.7 60.5 44.2 0.8 248.3 0.25 1820 228.6 20.7 111.4 160.1 12.5 694.6 0.33 1913 241.3 71.7 204.2 902.3 517.4 2,733.3 0.09 1950 239.9 161.0 222.2 1,396.2 1,455.9 5,331.6 0.05 1973 740.0 1,242.9 494.8 4,096.5 3,536.6 16,023.8 0.05 2003 5,659.2 2,699.0 2,267.1 7,857.4 8,430.8 40,384.6 0.14 2030 21,019.0 3,229.0 8,848.0 12,217.0 16,217.0 91,623.0 0.23

  5. SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED • The Asian century (cont.) - But much more an East Asian than a South Asian century

  6. Asian countries: Economic and Trade Indicators 2012 Source: World Bank, WTO Statistical Database, UNCTAD WIR 2012, IMF * Figures from 2011

  7. East Asia / South Asia

  8. Share of World Trade (US$ Bn)

  9. Share of World Trade (US$ Bn)

  10. Inward FDI Stock (US$ Bn)

  11. Inward FDI Stock (US$ Bn)

  12. HDI Indicators 2012

  13. Aggregate GDP for India and China in US$ (1960-2007)

  14. Per-capita GDP for India and China (1980-2007)

  15. Poverty as % of Population for India and China (1950-2004)

  16. Share Agriculture in GDP for India and China (1990-2007)

  17. Share Manufacture in GDP for India and China (1990-2007)

  18. Share of Services in GDP for India and China (1990-2007)

  19. Source: ADB, 2010

  20. World Ranking in Ease of Doing Business (2012)

  21. Percentile world rank of governance indictors (2008)

  22. SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED • What needs to be done in South Asia? - What lessons can it learn from East Asia? • How can it hook up with East Asia? • How can it better exploit global opportunities?

  23. SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED • East Asia • The East Asian Miracle: “getting basics right”; industrial policy and the “developmental state” • Japan, South Korea, Taiwan • Hong Kong and Singapore • ASEAN countries • China • Regional integration: manufacturing supply chains; FTAs; regional policy initiatives

  24. SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED • South Asia India • Enormous progress in the last 20 years but stop-go reforms • Lopsided growth and big reform gaps • Advantages (compared with China): British-endowed liberal institutions and an open society; emerging world-class private-sector companies; English language; decentralised governance in a federal system; demographic dividend

  25. SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED Other South Asia • Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka Regional integration • Tiny shares of Asian and world trade • Hardly integrated into global supply chains • Most malintegrated region in the world • Poor cross-border infrastructure • Relatively high trade barriers • “Trade-light” FTAs and regional cooperation

  26. SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED • Conclusions: what can South Asia learn from East Asia? • Primacy of unilateral reforms at national and sub-national levels, diffused by competitive emulation • Get basics right for catch-up growth (“first-generation reforms”) • Avoid selective industrial policy (“picking winners”) • Improve institutions: governance and rule of law • Structural and institutional (“second-generation”) reforms for productivity-led growth, esp. in more advanced parts of the region (e.g. advance guard of Indian cities and states, Sri Lanka)

  27. SOUTH ASIA AND EAST ASIA COMPARED • Conclusions (cont.) • Importance of labour-intensive manufacturing: exports, FDI; link up with East Asian/global supply chains; niche services and manufacturing far from sufficient! • Boost regional integration through reduction in tariff and esp. non-tariff barriers; SAFTA and bilateral FTAs vehicles but unilateral liberalisation more important; critical for India to lead by example • Boost cross-border sub-national links, eg. between cities, Sri Lanka and south India • Geopolitical stability also important: a problem for both east and south Asia

More Related