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Explore the unique dialogue between negotiators and modellers in the field of integrated assessment modelling for the Convention. Discover the benefits of adopting a cost-effectiveness approach and the potential of a multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach for policy deals. Integrated assessment modelling improves the policy relevance of scientific assessments.
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20 years of Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Convention Leen Hordijk, Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Integrated assessment modelling as a science-policy interface
Integrated assessment modelling as a science-policy interface WG Strategies WG WG Effects EMEP TFEIPStrategies EGTEI↓ ↓ ↓ = * * ↑ ↑ TF Integrated Assessment Modelling
/dev/tty> International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) RAINS 1.1 (1984) ========================================================= RRRR AA III NN N SSSS R R A A I N N N S RRRR AAAAAA I N N N SSSS R R A A I N N N S R R AA AA III N NN SSSS ========================================================= Please treat all results with caution! Hit RETURN to continue …
Two key messages emerging from the dialog between negotiators and scientists • From the negotiators to the modellers:Do cost-effectiveness instead of cost-benefit analysis!
1992: Cost-effectiveness analysis for Second Sulfur Protocol
Two key messages emerging from the dialog between negotiators and scientists • From the negotiators to the modellers:Do cost-effectiveness instead of cost-benefit analysis! 2. From the modellers to the negotiators:A multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach can increase economic efficiency and open scope for policy deals!
Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach1985-1994: RAINS for the Second Sulfur Protocol
Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach1995-2000: RAINS for the Gothenburg Protocol
Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach2000-2004: RAINS includes fine particles
Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach2005++: GAINS includes interactions with greenhouse gases
Conclusions • Integrated assessment can greatly improve the policy relevance of scientific assessments • A structured dialogue between negotiators and modellers is essential • With increasing marginal costs of the remaining measures, capturing the full set of multiple benefits of pollution control measures will be critical:Integrated assessment modelling offers a practical approach
20 years assessment of forest soil acidification1984 and 2004 Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads 2004: CAFE assessment for 2010 1984: RAINS 1.1 assessment for 2010