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RT3 Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe

RT3 Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe. Co-ordinators: J. H. Christensen, M. Rummukainen, B. van den Hurk 13 Partners: DMI, SMHI, KNMI, ICTP, METO-HC, CNRM, GKSS, MPIMET, UCLM, INM, met.no, CUNI, CHMI. Overall aim of RT3.

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RT3 Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe

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  1. RT3Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe Co-ordinators: J. H. Christensen, M. Rummukainen, B. van den Hurk 13 Partners: DMI, SMHI, KNMI, ICTP, METO-HC, CNRM, GKSS, MPIMET, UCLM, INM, met.no, CUNI, CHMI

  2. Overall aim of RT3 • Develop improved climate model tools, in the context of regional models and contributing to high-resolution modelling in general, first at spatial scales of 50 km, then at a resolution of 20 km.

  3. RT3 models and simulations • 9 RCMs: HIRHAM, RCA, RACMO, RegCM, HadRM, ALADIN, CLM, REMO, PROMES • Regionalisation of ERA-40 at ~50 km (WP3.1), Mo 18+ • Regionalisation of ERA-40 at ~25 km (WP3.1), Mo 24 • Issues: RCM domain, resolution, output, forcing • RCM scenario simulations, Europe (WP2B.1), Mo 36 • Seasonal and scenario simulations, a non-European region (WP3.5), Mo 51

  4. RT2B Production of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact AssessmentsCo-ordinators: Clare Goodess and Daniela Jacob 21 Partners: ETH, DMI, METO-HC, SMHI, CNRM, UCLM, ICTP, KNMI, FIC, IAP, NIMH, INM, UC, UEA, NIHWM, ARPA-SMR, PAS, ULUND, UKOELN, GKSS, NOA

  5. Overall aims of RT2B • Construct probabilistic high-resolution regional climate scenarios and s-2-d hindcastsusing dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. • Develop and implement new methodologies for the quantification and incorporation of the uncertainty… for probabilistic regional climate scenarios and hindcasts, and detection. • Provide robust probabilistic estimates and quantitative assessments of changes for Europe, including measures of uncertainty, focusing on impact-relevant climate parameters and meteorological extreme events.

  6. WP3.1 RCM-ensemble for ERA-40 WP3.2 Procedure for probabilistic RCM-scenarios (weighting) WP3.3 Design of ensemble strategy (GCM-RCM -subset) WP3.4 Analysis of present-day GCM-driven RCM-ensemble WP3.5 RCM-ensemble for a non-European region. WP2B.1 Scenario runs using high-resolution RCMs. WP2B.2 Development of new methods for the construction of probabilistic regional climate scenarios. WP2B.3 Application of new methods for the construction of probabilistic regional climate scenarios. RT3 and RT2B Workpackages

  7. RT2B and RT3 links to RT4 • RT3-Output: RCM-regionalisations of ERA-40. • RT2B-Output: Scenarios 1950-2050/2100. • RT4-input to RT3 ? • WP4.1, 4.2, 4.4, viz what might RCMs lack in terms of mechanisms, feedback etc.? • RT4-input to RT2B ? • WP4.4 on predictability, helpful in the construction of regional scenarios in RT2B? • WP4.2 on natural variability, helpful in the construction of regional scenarios and/or to assess scenario changes in RT2B?

  8. RT2B and RT3 links to RT5 • RT5-input: Gridded daily data from WP5.1g. (WHEN? Preferably on chosen RCM grid. Even other variables than those mentioned in DoW?) • RT5-input: Evaluation of… RCM data (WP5.4a, c, d, e)? (Which RCMs, required output?) • RT3-Output: RCM-regionalisations of ERA-4 • RT2B-Output: RCM scenarios 1950-2050/2100

  9. RT2B/RT3 links to both RT4 and RT5 • WP4.3 and WP5.4 on extremes • consistency with extremes used in RT2B • causal mechanisms (4.3b & 5.4b) – relevant for RCM evaluation & statistical model development • potential overlap on analysis of changes (4.3c, 5.4d vs 2B.3) • evaluation of extremes (5.4) • danger of some duplication? • incorporate into RT3/RT2B ‘weighting’ of RCMs?

  10. Work on extremes Gridded daily data RT3 and RT2B vs. RT4 and RT5 RT0 RT1 RT2A RT4 RT7 RT3 RT2B RT5 RT6 RT8

  11. Next • RT3 (WP3.1) will finalise the list of ”minimum RCM-output”, opportunity now for input! • RT2B (WP2B.1)will prepare its experimental plan for RCM scenario runs. Mo 6 – opportunity now for input! • RT2B (WP2B.2) Technical specification of work. Mo 12 – Opportunity now and at Evora workshop in May for input! • Results from RT3 and RT2B available by Months 18 (ERA40@50), 24 (ERA40@25), 36 (RCM-scen/Europe), 48 (probabilistic regional climate scenarios (s-2-d, 1950-2050/2100 at 20 km & sites), 51 (Non-Europe)

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