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RT3, Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe. J.H. Christensen (DMI) M. Rummukainen (SMHI) B. van den Hurk (KNMI) DMI, SMHI, KNMI, ICTP, METO-HC, CNRM, GKSS, MPIMET, UCLM, INM, met.no, CUNI, CHMI. Overall aim of RT3.
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RT3, Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe J.H. Christensen (DMI) M. Rummukainen (SMHI) B. van den Hurk (KNMI) DMI, SMHI, KNMI, ICTP, METO-HC, CNRM, GKSS, MPIMET, UCLM, INM, met.no, CUNI, CHMI
Overall aim of RT3 • RT3 has the responsibility for providing improved climate model tools developed in the context of regional models, but contributing to high-resolution modelling in general, first at spatial scales of 50 km at a European-wide scale within ENSEMBLES and later also at a resolution of 20km for specified sub-regions.
RT3 links to other RTs • (Output: specify need of GCM-data, to RT1/RT2A) • Input: GCM data, from RT1/RT2A • Input: Additional evaluation data, from RT5 • Output: An RCM-ensemble system, to RT2B • Input: RCM runs of GCM-”controls”, from RT2B • (Input: impact study requirements, from RT6) • Output: RCM climate change scenarios for a non-European region
RT3 models and simulations • DMI (HIRHAM), SMHI (RCA), KNMI (RACMO), ICTP (RegCM), METO-HC (HadRM), CNRM (ALADIN), GKSS (CLM), MPIMET (REMO), UCM (PROMES), INM (RCA or UM), met.no (HIRHAM), CUNI& CHMI (ALADIN) • Regionalisation of ERA-40 at ~50 km (WP3.1) • Regionalisation of ERA-40 at ~20 km (WP3.1) • (GCM-driven RCM simulations done in RT2B) • Simulations for a non-European region (WP3.5)
RT3, Workpackages • WP3.1: Creation of an RCM ensemble for ERA-40 • WP3.2: Design and calibration of procedure to create probabilistic regional climate scenarios • WP3.3: Design of ensemble strategy • WP3.4: A comparative analysis of RCM ensemble simulations of present-day using GCM boundary conditions • WP3.5: RCM-ensemble simulation for non-European areas
RT3/WP3.1: Creation of an RCM ensemble for ERA-40 • State-of-the-art RCM simulations at ~50km. • Simulations with evaluated/improved RCMs at ~20 km. • With some models, assess the role of land use and irrigation changes with experiments with and without such prescribed changes. (A possible link with RT7?) • Link the evaluation of the simulations with RT5 activities, which will provide new high-resolution data-sets.
RT3/WP3.2: Design and calibration of procedure to create probabilistic regional climate scenarios • Techniques for generation of probabilistic regional scale predictions. (A regional counterpart to RT1 WP1.6.) • Arrive at a basis for the weighting of individual ensemble members, to be further refined in WP3.4. • Calculation of model weights will be introduced for the ensemble of models to be used in prediction mode, i.e. for use in RT2B.
RT3/WP3.3: Design of ensemble strategy • Design the strategy including selection of members based on (GCM) boundary conditions, and model formulation. • Assign a desired number of RCM-GCM combinations to provide an "optimal" probabilistic future climate scenario, in collaboration with RT2a.
RT3/WP3.4: A comparative analysis of RCM ensemble simulations of present-day using GCM boundary conditions • Weighting procedure (WP3.2) based on ERA-40 driven RCMs applied to GCM-control driven RCMs • Modifications to the procedure to account for GCM-biases developed to allow weighting for RCM downscaling GCM predictions • Evaluation of the modified procedure • Co-ordinating with RT2B, a strategy and size for the 20km RCM ensemble will be recommended
RT3/WP3.5: RCM-ensemble simulation for non-European areas • Objectives: • Test RCMs for non-European regions, esp. tropics • Study the effects of anthropogenic forcings (e.g. land use change, atmospheric aerosols) in tropical regions • RCM climate change scenarios for a non-European region • Possible regions:Sahel, equatorial Africa (West Africa, cf. AMMA), Amazon Basin, South Asia monsoon region • Research steps: • Perfect boundary condition experiments • Sensitivity experiments (land-use change, aerosols) • Scenario simulations