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Acute Food Insecurity Analysis IPC Current situation April 2012 Projection April to July 2012

Acute Food Insecurity Analysis IPC Current situation April 2012 Projection April to July 2012. Presented to Livelihoods Cluster Meeting 26 April 2012 Regency Hotel, Juba. Methods and Key issues. Past IPC analysis. December 2011. Projection Jan – March 2012.

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Acute Food Insecurity Analysis IPC Current situation April 2012 Projection April to July 2012

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  1. Acute Food Insecurity Analysis IPCCurrent situation April 2012Projection April to July 2012 Presented to Livelihoods Cluster Meeting 26 April 2012 Regency Hotel, Juba

  2. Methods and Key issues

  3. Past IPC analysis December 2011 Projection Jan – March 2012

  4. Seasonal Calendar

  5. Key points • Food security conditions are slightly lower than normal for this time of the year with pockets that are worst than others with overall situation comparable with 2009 • - Low crop production • High market food prices • Other seasonal factors • 2012 additional high concern: • Civil security - conflict escalation at border • Inflation (market food prices) • Projection based on most likely scenario – situation highly volatile and difficult to predict evolution of RSS-N Sudan (conflict? Scale?) and related impact on food security for population (especially at border). • Worst case scenario (conflicts escalation): fs situation deteriorate dramatically

  6. Projection April-July 2012

  7. Green Belt LZ Current situation April 2012 • Overall phase 2 (low levels of food insecurity) Stressed) • Food availability (Fair harvest 2011 – some stocks) • No LRA activity in 2012 • Inflation of the SS Pound  food prices raising • Still IDPs / refugees (2011 LRA activities) • Poor access to safe water affecting food utilization and hygiene practices • High HIV-AIDS prevalence • Significant post-harvest losses

  8. Green Belt LZ Projection April to July 2012 • Overall Phase 2 • - Good rain forecasted – land preparation/planting ongoing as usual • Food stocks expected to last up to June (lean season as usual but root crops will be available) • LRA is currently not a problem but situation to be monitored across the border (active in 2012 DRC and CAR)

  9. 2. Iron Stone Plateau Current situation April 2012 • Overall Phase 3 • Food Access: prices on the market increased significantly (devaluation of SSP and cost of fuel increasing) • Raga county areas bordering Sudan – security situation volatile • Poor access to safe water sources in several areas • Overall favorable food availability especially productive area of Raja but less favorable in Wau (2011 production and current stocks) • Pressure on Wau urban settings due to returnees concentration

  10. 2. Iron Stone Plateau Projection April – July 2012 • Overall Phase 3 • Lean season will last up to next harvest (August) – more people foreseen to experience food insecurity • Food Access: prices on the market report to increase significantly (devaluation SSP and cost fuel increasing) • Pressure on Wau urban settings due to returnees concentration will continue and might increase for new arrival • To monitor closely security situation at the border (possible displacement- disruption of agricultural season- no access to markets etc.) Additional pressure to Wau urban settings

  11. 3. Hills and Mountain Current April 2012 • Overall Phase 2 • Food Access: prices on the market report to increase significantly (devaluation SSP and cost fuel increasing) • Good harvest 2011 (good stock levels at HH and market) – supplied by Uganda • Zone with the lowest % of HH with poor food consumption • Land preparation/planting period ongoing as usual

  12. 3. Hills and Mountains Projected April – July 2012 • Overall Phase 2 • Good rains forecasted • Normal seasonal pattern with hunger period in June • Monitor closely prices on the market (inflation due to devaluation SSP and cost of fuel increasing)

  13. 4. Pastoral Zone Current April 2012 • Overall Phase 3 • Food utilization limiting factor to food security (very poor handling and food storage practices) • Food availability: stocks are running low as we enter the seasonal hunger gap. • ToT unfavorable for livestock owners (cereal prices increased) • With hunger season population relying more on markets for food (prices are high and increasing due to SPP devaluation) • Rains started and vegetation improving (pastures for animals available) • Insecurity especially in Pibor area due to cattle rustling practices (displaced population) -

  14. 4. Pastoral Zone Projection April – July 2012 • Overall Phase 3 • Overall favorable rains forecasted for the season anticipating normal pastures conditions and water sources available. • Food prices increase might lead to further deterioration of ToT limiting access to cereal for pastoralists • Hunger season ongoing with seasonal food insecurity related pattern (increase number of food insecure population) • Government actions to limit insecurity due to cattle rustling on –going (situation expected to improve)

  15. 5. Eastern Flood Plains Current April 2012 • Overall Phase 3 (! Situation could be worse without humanitarian interventions ) • Conflict on-going at the border with Sudan (both Unity and Upper Nile) – security contingency mode in place • Bombardment are causing internal displacements • Insecurity Jonglei (cattle rustling) is also causing displacements • Food harvest 2011 in deficit • Population dependent on markets (prices high and increasing – devaluation SSP) • Chronically high level of poor food consumption at HH level • Acute nutrition indicators “chronically high”

  16. 5. Eastern Flood Plains Projection April to July 2012 • Overall Phase 3 • Conflicts at the border with Sudan are likely to intensify, expected high displacements, disruption of agricultural activities, disruption of trade and higher food prices in the market(both Unity and Upper Nile) – • Aggregation of displaced people over a short period is likely to trigger disease outbreak and poor food utilization • Inflation and increasing fuel prices expect to negatively impact on food prices in the market

  17. 6. Nile Sobat corridor Current April 2012 • Overall Phase 3 (border area 4) • Unimodal agricultural area with fishing all over the year. • Big deficit in 2011 crop production (stocks at low levels) • - Food availability is a limiting factor to food security at this moment • Food supply from North blocked (important source) since last year • Prices high and increasing due to devaluation of SSP, low food availability • Area bordering Sudan is highly volatile with high risk of deterioration and intensification of conflicts. • During last two weeks incidents have been reported (with causalities and displacement)

  18. 6. Nile Sobat corridor Projection April – July 2012 • Overall Phase 3 (border area in 4 expanding) • Due to conflicts high probability of disruption of agricultural season (areas near the border) • Population displaced might increase (pressure on food security of in-country urban settings) • June is the pick of the lean season and with food stocks already low it might be early

  19. 7. Western flood plains Current April - June • Overall Phase 3 (! Situation could be worst without humanitarian interventions – in particular Twic and Aweil Centre and West) and bordering area already in 4 • Unimodal agricultural area (land preparation period) . • Big deficit in 2011 crop production (stocks low levels) - Food availability is a limiting factor to food security in this moment • Food supply from North blocked (important source) since last year • Prices high and increasing due to devaluation of SSP, low food availability and blockage of border • Area bordering Sudan is highly volatile with high risk of deterioration and intensification of conflicts. • High presence of displaced from Abyie (mostly concentrated Twic) • Concentration of returnees not settled yet (especially in Aweil)

  20. 7. Western Flood Plains Projection April – July 2012 • Overall Phase 3 (! Areas) and bordering Sudan already in 4 will expand • Situation might deteriorate at border causing disruption of agricultural production – displacement – limited access to markets • June is the pick of the lean season and with food stocks already low it might come even earlier • Prices will continue to increase due to devaluation of SSP, low food availability and blockage of border • More people are expected to face food insecurity

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