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Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research

Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research. Primary Sources: IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5 Plans. New Scenarios. Global scenarios for two time periods • “near-term” scenarios  2035 - potential for “prediction”

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Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research

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  1. Future Directions inGlobally Coordinated Climate Change Research Primary Sources: IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5 Plans

  2. New Scenarios Global scenarios for two time periods • “near-term” scenarios  2035 - potential for “prediction” - directly linked to policy planning • “long-term” scenarios  2100 and ultimately  2300 - climate targets for avoiding risks - long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation

  3. Approaches to Scenario Development Previous (e.g., SRES) Planned (e.g., RCP)

  4. Expected Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 • > 8.5 W/m2 in 2100 • rising • RCP6 • ~ 6 W/m2 in 2100 • stabilization • RCP4.5 • 4.5 W/m2 in 2100 • stabilization • RCP3-PD • peak 3 W/m2 before 2100 • decline after peak

  5. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  6. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  7. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  8. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  9. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  10. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  11. CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  12. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  13. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  14. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  15. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  16. END Future Directions inGlobally Coordinated Climate Change Research

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