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Berlin SCORUS Meeting , 29 - 31 March 2010

Relations between Generations and the Challenges of an Ageing Society. Health Care and Social Assistance of an Ageing Society in Poland - characteristic s and trends. Anna Jasiówka , Marta Pompa, Monika Wałaszek. Berlin SCORUS Meeting , 29 - 31 March 2010. PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION.

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Berlin SCORUS Meeting , 29 - 31 March 2010

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  1. Relations between Generations and the Challenges of an Ageing Society Health Care and Social Assistanceof an AgeingSocietyin Poland - characteristics and trends Anna Jasiówka, Marta Pompa, Monika Wałaszek Berlin SCORUS Meeting, 29 - 31 March 2010

  2. PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION • 1. Ageing society in Poland: • Demographic characteristics • Demographic predictions (Central Statistical Office, United Nations) • Comparison with Europe and rest of the world • 2. Future changes in both health care and social assistance areas related to ageing of the Polish society - results of the forecast model: • Estimation of an expected number of physicians • Estimation of an expected number of nurses • Estimation of an expected number of residents of stationary social welfare facilities • Estimation of expenditure on social assistance

  3. PEOPLE OVER 65 ANDCHILDREN BELOW 14IN POLAND Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

  4. VITAL STATISTICS OF POLISH POPULATION Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

  5. LIFE EXPETANCY AT BIRTH Source: United Nations

  6. RATIO OF PEOPLE OVER 65 TO THE TOTAL POPULATION Source: United Nations

  7. CONCLUSIONS FOR POLISH SOCIETY • Beginning from 2015 new trends will be observed: • The number of live births will be lower than the number of deaths • The number of people at the age of at least 65 will be higher than the number of children

  8. Model assumption • The goal was to create a regression model, based on available data, in order to estimate the expected number of physicians and nurses in the future • Because there is not enough data required to build an appropriate estimation model and there are hardly measurable qualitative data, we make the regression model by using two independent variables, which described the dependent variable (physicians, midwives) in the best possible way • To obtain estimated value of dependent variable in the future, we used the CSO data on the population projection

  9. Regression Model for physicians Standard error of estimation Corrected R2 0,97 11335 Physicians = 3,53 * People + 0,74 * Net migration

  10. Regression Model for nurses NUreses=0,0004*People2+4 833*Net migration+ 105*Net migration2 Standard error of estimation Corrected R2 0,98 18 674

  11. ESTIMATION OUTCOMES

  12. ESTIMATED NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER ONE PHYSICIAN

  13. REGRESSION MODEL FOR RESIDENTS Standard error of estimation Corrected R2 0,99 1 333 residens=0,0075*PeoplE44+-0,0023*people0-17

  14. PREDICTION MODEL FOR SOCIAL EXPENDITURE Socialexpenditure for old peopleper capita

  15. REGRESSION MODEL FOR EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE=1 077,4*%GDP2 +146 641,6*% SOCIAL EXPENDITURE Standard error of estimation 141 Corrected R2 0,99

  16. ESTIMATION OUTCOMES

  17. OUTCOMES OF CORRESPONDANCE ANALYSIS IN THE AREA OF DISABILITY Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

  18. OUTCOMES OF CORRESPONDANCE ANALYSIS FOR LONG-TERM HEALTH PROBLEMS AND CHRONIC DISEASES Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

  19. OUTCOMES OF CORRESPONDANCE ANALYSIS FOR DISEASES AND AGE Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland

  20. Conclusions (1) • Although the projected number of physicians will increase, one physician will give more medical consultations during a year than nowadays. It will be mainly a result of changes in the age structure of Polish population. • Disparity between the voivodships will be observed when it comes to workload of physicians. It will be related to the expected number of old people different in each voivodship and greater health needs of these people. • Increasing number of nurses may be insufficient to meet the needs of an aging population.

  21. Conclusions (2) • A group of people with long-term health problems, chronic diseases and disability which require greater medical care, will raise. It may cause, that increasing number of nurses will be insufficient. • Increasing number of patients in institutions of social assistance will require raise the employment in these organization, if the standard workload of employees will be maintained. Otherwise it may lead to decline in service quality. • The financial resources allocated to social assistance will be reduced which mainly come from the state budget. It will be a result of dwindling stocks of economically active people.

  22. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION A.Jasiowka@stat.gov.pl, M.Pompa@stat.gov.pl, M.Walaszek@stat.gov.pl

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