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INVESTMENT EXCELLENCE IN EUROPEAN EQUITIES. James Buckley. Europe – economic overview. Economic growth forecasts have been upgraded. Interest rates have begun to rise Eastern Europe provides a boost Unemployment rates are declining Domestic demand is picking up
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INVESTMENT EXCELLENCE IN EUROPEAN EQUITIES James Buckley
Europe – economic overview • Economic growth forecasts have been upgraded • Interest rates have begun to rise • Eastern Europe provides a boost • Unemployment rates are declining • Domestic demand is picking up • Business sentiment has plateaued October ‘06 Forecasts January ‘07 Forecasts yoy 2007 2007 2.0 GDP 1.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.5 7.6 Industrial Production 2.2 2.0 2.1 CPI 2.2 Source: Consensus Economics Inc, January 2007
600 Pending 500 Shares Cash 400 €billion 300 200 100 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Pan European M&A – Here to stay Source: Citigroup Investment Research and Datastream, Jan 2007 M&A Activity has been a key theme in the last year
Growth theme in Peripheral Europe intact • Economic growth in the euro zone has improved • Peripheral euro zone economies are even more attractive Source: Consensus Forecast December 11th, 2006
30 Index Weight (%) 12m Return (%) 20 10 0 Spain Ireland Sweden Austria Belgium Europe ex UK Italy Finland Portugal Norway Denmark Germany Greece France Netherlands Switzerland Traditional InvestingPerformance by country is not linked to index weight Source: MSCI Europe in € at 29 December 2006
Index Weight (%) 12m Return (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Utilities Industrials ConsumerDiscretionary Telecommunication Health Care Services Financials Materials ConsumerStaples Information Technology Energy Traditional InvestingSector performance doesn’t help either Source: MSCI Europe in € at 29 December 2006
Stock picking is the only tool left Opportunity for active managers to benefit from market inefficiencies
Investment ProcessFundamental Research – strong idea generation Four Key Measures VALUE CREATION GROWTH MANAGEMENT VALUATION Pace and duration Competitive position Opportunities for real growth Quality of earnings Culture of innovation Clear, credible strategy Company culture Corporate governance Demonstrable track record Acquisitions and disposals Cashflow returns Improving returns Economic value added Capital allocation Balance sheet structure EV/EBITDA* Price/cash flow Price/earnings Asset undervaluation Sector/market/cross border comparison Favourable risk / reward Enhanced shareholder value Unrecognised growth Credible management *Enterprise Value/Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation Research augmented by regular contact with target companies
We buy when we identify: Earnings growth prospects better than consensus estimates Undervaluation, based on comprehensive understanding of corporate strategy, fundamentals and peer comparables Catalysts that will lead to the stock being re-rated within a defined time frame Triggers for a sell: Stock achieves absolute valuation target We detect deterioration in fundamental outlook Changes in strategic/economic overlay Best and worst performing stocks review Buy & Sell Disciplines A disciplined approach to investment
Baring Europa Fund Portfolio Characteristics as at 31th January 2007 • Fund Size (USD million) 382.1 • Number of holdings in portfolio 58 • Large-cap eur>5bn+ (%) 59.72 • Mid-cap eur2-5bn (%) 13.48 • Small Cap eur<2bn (%) 23.27 • Tracking Error 4.05 Source: Baring Asset Management, data as 31/01/2007
Baring Europa Top 10 holdings Top 10 current overweight stocks* Top 10 current underweight stocks* Source: Baring Asset Management as at 31/01/07 * Relative to MSCI Europe index For Comparative Purposes Only
Baring Europa FundPerformance as at 31st January 2007 Source: Baring Asset Management, Standard & Poor’s. (bid to bid, in sterling, with net income reinvested). Rank 7/367 26/301 49/236 Quartile 1st 1st 1st An Offshore Fund recognised under the Laws of the UK, managed by Baring International Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited and marketed by Baring Asset Management Limited (Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). * Annualised Returns. Index is MSCI Europe. ** Micropal, UK Registered Investment Funds Equity Europe ex UK Reference to the index is for comparative purposes only.
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