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Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication. GHG Emission Projections in the Czech Republic – Methodological Approach. Presentation structure. importance of GHG emission projections projections with measures, with additional measures and without measures

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Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication

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  1. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  2. Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication GHG Emission Projections in the Czech Republic – Methodological Approach UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  3. Presentation structure • importance of GHG emission projections • projections with measures, with additional measures and without measures • why to have even more scenarios • methodology • tools • accounting of mitigation measures • scenario without measures • results comparison • sensitivity analysis UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  4. Importance of GHG emissions projections UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  5. Importance of GHG emissions projections – contd. • From the foregoing graph might seem GHG emissions are not an issue for the Czech Republic. But: • EU is likely to be more progressive in climate protection than Kyoto • ~14 kg CO2ekv per capita in the CR vs. ~11 kg average in the EU • the emission decrease was substantially influenced by drop of economy • trading with emission permits (national allocation plan) • feeling of general responsibility for the climate  • GHG emission projections are important and not only in NC4 context. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  6. Scenario with measures (2003 projections) • measures realised between1995 – 2000 (accounted in projections) • clean air legislation • state programmes • Czech Energy Agency (support of energy efficiency & RES) • State Environmental Fund (air protection) • GEF efficient lighting • transport • support of forestation • alternative motor fuels UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  7. Scenario with measures (2003 projections) – contd. • measures realised after 2000 (with exception of wastes not yet accounted in projections) • new Clean Air Act • act on IPPC • effective from 2003 for new installations • effective from 2012 for existing ones • act on wastes • act on packaging UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  8. Scenario with additional measures (2003 projections) • additional measures • National Energy Efficiency & RES Programme • the programme sets indicative targets in emission reduction • environmental tax on energy • politically controversial issue • increased support of RES UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  9. Scenario without measures (2003 projections) • scenario as if none of the listed measures would have been realised UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  10. Why to have even more scenarios? UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  11. Why to have even more scenarios? – contd. • sensitivity analysis to the most unreliable inputs • prediction of the GDP is more difficult due to two „economical shocks“ • transition from planned to market economy • accession to the EU • (rather) political issues • future of the nuclear energy • utilisation of domestic lignite UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  12. Proposed scenarios • three GDP scenarios • reference – average annual growth 3.6 % • low – average annual growth 2.9 % • high – average annual growth 4.3 % • two nuclear + lignite scenarios • no new nuclear power plants + extension of lignite mines • new nuclear plants possible after 2015 + no further extension of lignite mines UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  13. Methodology - tools • energy sector • energy demand • MEDEE-like spreadsheets • CGE model • technology mix • EFOM/ENV model • model type • linear optimising • technology oriented • bottom-up • all combustion processes in all sectors & ferrous metallurgy • CO2, NOX, SO2, CO, particulates, fugitive CH4 from coal & natural gas UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  14. Methodology – tools – contd. • agriculture & forestry – specialised models • CO2 from lime desulphurisation – calculated „manually“ • CO2 in industry – spreadsheet model (important only cement + glass) • waste management – spreadsheet model • N2O – spreadsheet model on the sector level • HFCs, PFCs, SF6 – spreadsheet model on the national level UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  15. Methodology – accounting of measures • measures incorporated into the energy demand forecast • technological standards • thermal insulation of buildings • minimal efficiencies of energy technologies • measures built-in in the technology model • technology development • fuel switching • demand-side saving measures (above requirements of standards) • taxes and subsidies on energy • national emission ceilings UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  16. Methodology – accounting of measures – contd. • measures accounted outside models • quantified • realised and planned JI projects • investments realised within state energy efficiency & RES programmes • estimated • non-technology part of state energy efficiency & RES programmes • omitted due to lack of data • some political and declarative measures, where the benefit can be hardly quantified • what should be added for NC4 • trading with emission permits UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  17. Methodology – scenario without measures • the most complicated scenario • small simplification – all mitigation programmes began after 1992 • calculation started form scenario with measures • increase of energy demand - removing insulation and efficiency standards • removing taxes and subsidies on energy applied after 1995 • addition of saved emissions from state energy efficiency & RES programmes • addition of emissions from JI projects • removing of impact of clean air legislation (fuel switch lignite  natural gas) – a spreadsheet task UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  18. Result comparison UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  19. Result comparison – contd. • main drivers • scenario with measures • clean air legislation (mainly SO2 problem) – 3716 Gg CO2ekv in 2000 • large installations equipped with cleaning technologies • small installations switched from coal to natural gas • support to gasification in households • state energy efficiency & RES programmes – 3442 Gg CO2ekv in 2000 • scenario with additional measures • introduction of very strong ecological tax on energy + supported feed-in tariffs for electricity from RES – 16518 Gg CO2ekv in 2020 • new National Energy Efficiency & RES Programme – 6614 Gg CO2ekv in 2020 UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  20. Sensitivity analysis UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  21. Sensitivity analysis – contd. • influence of GDP growth • change of 0.7 % in average GDP growth  5000 Gg CO2ekv in 2010 • influence of new nuclear power plants • new NPP could be finished around the year 2020 • saving of another  5000 Gg CO2ekv in 2020 UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  22. Conclusion • it is possible and useful to develop all three scenarios • additional scenarios were calculated as a kind of sensitivity analysis • there remain issues to be solved • trading with emission permits • assessment of impact of political, organisational, voluntary and declarative measures UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

  23. Thank for your attention! Contacts: ENVIROS, s. r. o. Prague, Czech Republic Phone: +420 284 007 499 Fax: +420 284 861 245 E-mail: office@enviros.cz www.enviros.cz UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

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