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China-Taiwan Relations in 2049 Integration, Independence or In-Between? 40 INTERVIEWS WITH THOUGHT LEADERS. Ramy Inocencio APLP G9 Fellow GIST 2010 Delegate. China-Taiwan Relations in 2049:. A Picture of China Today 2. China & Taiwan Futures: Reunification? 3. The Biggest Guiding Factor
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China-Taiwan Relations in 2049 Integration, Independence or In-Between? 40 INTERVIEWS WITH THOUGHT LEADERS Ramy Inocencio APLP G9 Fellow GIST 2010 Delegate
China-Taiwan Relations in 2049: • A Picture of China Today 2. China & Taiwan Futures: Reunification? 3. The Biggest Guiding Factor • Messages for Taiwan • Messages for China • My Personal Reflection
If You Could Draw China as a Person… • Age? • Man or Woman? • Clothes? • Personality?
China as a Person:What I Think • A Man • Elderly but wanting to seem young • Confused • Putting on a strong face • Perhaps not confident
Integration, Independence or In-Between? • Based on what you know about China and Taiwan, do you think the two sides will get closer, get farther apart or keep the status quo?
The Biggest Guiding Factor • After our futures session with Scott, what do you think is the biggest factor that will guide China relations? • Not just with Taiwan but perhaps with the rest of Asia and the world? • Politics…Economics…Culture…Environment….something else?
Money, Money, Money! • A majority of thought leaders believe ECONOMIC factors are the most important factor that will bring China and Taiwan closer! • “Businessmenhavenomotherland.” • Number 2: CULTURE & Soft Power • Number 3: POLITICS…but political integration for China & Taiwan will happen a looooong time from now
What Big Message Would You Say to China? • As a Cambodian, what would you say if you could speak to one person, one group or all of China?
China’s Message for Cambodia • What do you think China would say to Cambodia? Why?
Thought Leaders Talk to “Taiwan” • Taiwan’s status in the world is declining • Taiwanese need to work harder to stay relevant in this changing world where China is getting stronger • Taiwanese should take new opportunities in China – that is the new market for jobs, goods and services
Thought Leaders Talk to “China” • Much can be learned from China • Change is inevitable for China – no matter what they try to do • Taiwan may represent a possible future for China
China-Taiwan Relations in 2049:A Summary • A Picture of China Today 2. China & Taiwan Futures 3. The Biggest Guiding Factor 4. Final Message for Taiwan 5. Final Message for China 6. Personal Reflection
Personal Reflections • Exercises In…. • Networking: Identifying Contact Nodes • Hubs of information: Journalists, Academics • Hubs of power: Politicians, Businesspeople • “Rule of 3”: Extending Your Network • Efficiency: “Carpe Diem” Every Day • Laying groundwork for the days ahead w/ limited amount of time • Patience • Taking No for an answer • 枪打出头鸟: “ Guns target birds who stick their head out.” • Open-mindedness & Change • Initial Ideas on China-Taiwan Ties in 2000 • Current Ideas on China-Taiwan Ties in 2010 • Future Ideas in 2049…