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PENDANAAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM: REVIEW COP-15 DAN LANGKAH KE DEPAN

PENDANAAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM: REVIEW COP-15 DAN LANGKAH KE DEPAN. Herfan Brilianto Departemen Keuangan JW Marriot - 26 Januari 2010. outline. REVIEW COP-15 DAN IMPLIKASI ATAS NEGOSIASI CLIMATE FINANCING MASA DEPAN RESPON DAN POSISI INDONESIA

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PENDANAAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM: REVIEW COP-15 DAN LANGKAH KE DEPAN

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  1. PENDANAAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM: REVIEW COP-15 DAN LANGKAH KE DEPAN HerfanBrilianto DepartemenKeuangan JW Marriot - 26 Januari 2010

  2. outline • REVIEW COP-15 DAN IMPLIKASI ATAS NEGOSIASI CLIMATE FINANCING MASA DEPAN • RESPON DAN POSISI INDONESIA • EXTRA: PERAN MOF DALAM UPAYA MITIGASI DAN ADAPTASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM

  3. REVIEW COP-15 DAN IMPLIKASI ATAS NEGOSIASI CLIMATE FINANCING MASA DEPAN

  4. COP-NEGOTIATION PROCESS: TRAGEDY OF THE COMMON (1) • Aktordalamnegosiasi CC memilikitujuanmasing-masing, Pareto optimality hanyabisatercapaibilapihak-pihak yang terlibatmengorbankankepentingannya : TOO MUCH TO ASK?? • Heavily industrialized countries • Rapidly developing countries with large poor population • Fossil fuel exporters • Country that have technological advantage • New variable: current financial crisis: • Lower potential growth • Fiscal burden (huge counter-cyclical cost & aging population) • Democratic process: how many green parties win the election?

  5. COP-NEGOTIATION PROCESS: TRAGEDY OF THE COMMON (2) • Problem of inclusiveness: too many participants produces wrong incentives & weak commitments • Actual result: lowest common denominator • Cheating is the best strategy in the game of public goods • Success can only be achieved if we all act as our own policemen: problem of imperfect monitoring and no punishment.

  6. RESPON DAN POSISI INDONESIA

  7. POSISI INDONESIA • Salahsatukorbanterbesar climate change, namundituduhsebagai emitter terbesar • Climate change adalahmasalahpembangunan: bagaimanamenyeimbangkansolusi climate change dengan primary national development target (pro-growth, pro-poor & pro-job) • Tuntutanriil: Indonesia masihmemerlukan carbon consumption dalampembangunannya (technology transfer is a daydreaming) • Memilikimandatpolitisuntukmenjadi broker dalam climate change negotiation • Paradox politik: upayamitigasidanadaptasiharusmenghadapirealitapolitik, contoh: pro-kontrasubsidi BBM, political decision over economic rationale

  8. REVIEW POSISI NEGARA LAIN Potensial donor • US: fokuspada recovery sektorkeuangandanmengurangi budget deficit • EU: recovery sektorkeuangan, budget deficit + aging population • Jepang: budget deficit, aging population, stagnasiekonomi • Semuamemiliki technological advantage, highly functioning capital market dan private sectors yang efisien Possible behavior: • kurangsetujumengenaiide concessional financing • tidakakansepakatatas binding commitment (i.e. share of GDP) • Akanfokuspadaupayadi firm level (market mechanism) dan technological measures untukmemperbaikikondisiekonomi • Upaya carbon market akansangatterkaitdenganupayarevitalisasisektorkeuangan • Cenderungmelakukan trade protectionism (eco-labelling, etc.)

  9. REVIEW POSISI NEGARA LAIN Emerging markets • India & China: fokuspada catching up development & increasing investment & income per capita • Rusia: fokuspadaekspor raw material (incl. gas & oil) untukmembangunkembaliekonominya • Middle East: concern pada radical restriction ataspenggunaan BBM • Brazil: sebagaiproduserterbesar ethanol, inginmendorongkomitmenmengenaiinsentifuntukenergi alternative namunakankerasterhadapisu land use • In due time, they will be the one who care most on climate change issue Possible behavior: • Dalamprakteknyaakanmemanfaatkansegalajenis financing yang tersedia • Namundalamnegosiasiakan buying time untukmencegah binding commitment ataskontribusimerekaterhadap emission reduction

  10. Emissions per capita (tco2/person) NOMINAL GROWTH Data Sources: IMF, IEA, countries data

  11. Emissions per us$ of gdp (Kgco2/US$GDP at exchange rates) NOMINAL GROWTH Data Sources: IMF, IEA, countries data

  12. Total energy supply per us$ of gdp (TJ/US$1000 GDP at exchange rates) NOMINAL GROWTH Data Sources: IMF, IEA, countries data

  13. Emissions per unit of energy supply (TCO2/TJ) NOMINAL GROWTH Data Sources: IMF, IEA, countries data

  14. Apa yang dapatdilakukan? • Principle: dalampenyusunanposisiharusmempertimbangkan possible behavior darinegara lain danmengantisipasikemungkinan “cheating” Alternatif: • Setting an example: Indonesia to set ambitious target for emission reduction • Super pragmatic: Indonesia to set conditions for reduction target • Pushing breakthrough in negotiation process: • Effective monitoring mechanism • Effective financing • Limited parties negotiation in parallel (G20???) • Apapunjalan yang ditempuhfokusharuspadaupayadomestikadaptasisebagaiprioritasutama, kemudianupayamitigasidapatdilakukandenganmensinkronkanpadatujuanpembangunanekonominasional: khususnyapenciptaanlapanganpekerjaandanpengentasankemiskinan

  15. Strategi financing • Adaptasisebagaiprioritas paling urgen • Langkahkebijakanjangkapanjangmelalui appropriate carbon pricing that recognizes its true cost • Reformasiinstitusi yang ditujukanuntukkoordinasikebijakan yang efektifdanmenciptakankondisi yang memungkinkanuntukdistribusi financing/input ekonomi yang kuatbagiberbagaisektorkebijakan • Kebijakaninvestasi yang pro-adaptasi/mitigasi • Fokuspadapengembanganenergi geothermal • PembentukanPusatInvestasiPemerintah (PIP) untuk mobilize private funding • Mekanismeinsentifbagidaerah • APBN 2010 sudah recognize insentifbagidaerah yang pro adaptasi/mitigasi (melalui DAK) • Langkahlebihlanjutuntuk enabling milestone/outcome based payments & multi-year spending programs • Potensi linkage ke REDD • Aktifdalampengembanganpasarkarboninternasional • “26 to 41” sebagai marketing value

  16. EXTRA: PERAN MOF DALAM UPAYA MITIGASI DAN ADAPTASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM

  17. Direct Regulation • Enforcement / Incentives • Zoning and Land Use • AMDAL/ Env Audit • Building / Design Standards • Vehicle Emission Standards Ministry of Finance Policy Tools Available For Influencing Climate Change Mitigation / Adaptation Int’l Institutions & Mechanisms IFI Policies, Global Funds, Carbon Mkts, Debt swaps Indirect Influences Technology Policy, Strategic Industries Tech. Transfer R&D, Trade, dll • By managing • Investment climate • Pricing (fiscal) policies • Direct spending • Risk and financial mkts • Sectoral rules & law • Can influence: • Incentives • Investments • Industry • Int’l $ flows • Pro Poor Approaches • Financial/Investment Policies • Invest Climate (attract Kap.) • Banking Sector • Non Bank Finance Inst’s • Municipal Finance Rules • Taxes / Subsidies • Tax/Fees/Charges • Royalties/Rent Capture • Subsidies/Tax breaks • Expenditure Policies • Strategic Budget Priorities • Direct Investment • Public Service Obligation • Green Procurement • Education – Awareness

  18. Examples From Indonesia Financial and investment policy Fiscal policy • Fiscal / tax incentives: • Import pollution control equipment • Reduce costs of waste treatment • Environmental and resource fees Domestic International • Banking policies • Regulatory framework • Performance standards • Non-banking policies / Insurance • Risk sharing • Innovative insurance products REDD CDM / Carbon markets Adaptation Fund ODA / IFIs • Expenditure and budget policies • Increase environmental expenditures • Fuel subsidy reduction in 2005 • Should induce more efficient energy use

  19. Further economic and fiscal policy reform for climate change Efficiency Effectiveness Equity Development

  20. Indonesia’s Mitigation Objectives Reducing energy related emissions Reducing Emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) • Value of forest carbon in Indonesia? • International markets still developing • There is a range of estimates: • Forest carbon price: S2-4/ton/year • Carbon content: 200-600 ton/ha • Potential value/ha: $400-2400/ha/yr • (competitive with many existing land uses) • Potential value of protecting: • 1 M/ha: $400-2400 million/year • High interest in allowing REDD related carbon payments in post-Kyoto framework • Source: CF Group, WB • CDM is a global mitigation method for trading carbon credits for $ • Globally, 137 M tons/yr of CO2 e are traded • at $5-10/ton. • Indonesia has 8 CDM projects, about 1% of • global market • China, India, Brazil have 10-30 x more • projects, CO2e • Source: CDM Website MoF: need to devise efficient regulatory framework to enable better use of REDD, CDM and carbon trading

  21. Indonesia’s emissions profile, projections and reduction challenge

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