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EGU Forecasting Tool (Data Elements)

EGU Forecasting Tool (Data Elements). John Welch Senior Environmental Manager IDEM. Office of Air Quality (800) 451-6027 www.idem.IN.gov/6650.htm . Input Files. Unit Availability File Controls File Growth File Input Variables. Unit Availability File.

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EGU Forecasting Tool (Data Elements)

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  1. EGU Forecasting Tool (Data Elements) John Welch Senior Environmental Manager IDEM Office of Air Quality (800) 451-6027 www.idem.IN.gov/6650.htm

  2. Input Files • Unit Availability File • Controls File • Growth File • Input Variables

  3. Unit Availability File • Scope: Continental United States (CONUS) • Contains Electric Generation Unit (EGU) Data that report to CAMD • Assembled from a variety of sources: U.S. EPA Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) NEEDS Database • EIA Form 860 • North American Energy Reliability Corporation (NERC) datasets • Input from industry partners • Input from State air quality staff • Allows edits to unit-specific factors that may change between the base year and the future year Examples: utilization fractions, unit efficiency, capacity, fuels used

  4. Controls File • Allows user to update emission factors/controls that may change between base year and future year • Only future controls are included • SO2/NOx, lbs/mmbtu and control efficiency • Allows user to input emission rates for new units with no base year data • Information provided by State AQ staff • Can be used to apply seasonal controls

  5. Regional/Fuel-Unit Type Flexibility: Growth Rates File • Annual and peak growth rates • Application of peak to transition hours • transition hours to nonpeak • example: coal is set at 200 and 2000. May be changed to mitigate the annual affect of peak growth rates

  6. Input Variables File • Allows user to specify parameters on a region and fuel-unit type basis • New unit sizes for generation deficit units vary by area of the country; NE much smaller than SE, for example • Allows a range (min and max) • New unit profiles adjust the mimic profile • A best guess at what new unit profile may look like • Adjust the controlled emission rates

  7. Input Variables File (Continued) • New unit locations user may allow ERTAC EGU projection tool to choose • Or: User may use the input variables file to specify locations and avoid placing new units in sensitive areas • Existing unit parameters maximum utilization fractions • Optimal load thresholds, demand cushion • Deficit review hour • Ozone season

  8. Summary • The ERTAC input files drive the model • Input files were built from a wide variety of existing data and quality assured by State AQ staff • The input files provide lots of knobs that can be adjusted to make the tool work better • These can be adjusted globally, regionally, or in some cases on a unit level

  9. Questions • For additional information, please contact John Welch at jwelch@idem.IN.govor (317) 233-2637

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