Hurricane Ike

1. Hurricane Ike 1100L 05 Sept 2008 Regis Walter NOAA Meteorologist

2. Estimated arrival time of TS force winds for the FL Keys: 2000 EDT Monday, Sept. 8

3. Current Satellite Image Center Hurricane Ike

4. IKE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST • AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2 NORTH 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. • IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW... WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. • ON THIS TRACK... IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. • HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILESFROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES. • THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

5. Technical Discussion • NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH SIDE. • USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. • ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A DAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO THE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER-WINDS SLACKEN...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. • IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT...AND CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND GFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. • REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW STRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR DAYS TO COME.

6. Technical Discussion Cont. • IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT 260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. • THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL MODELS...SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. • THE UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. • SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.