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SDAWG Hurricane Ike Update

This update provides a review of key points regarding Hurricane Ike, adjusted coast load profiles and timeframe, restoration market notices, estimated meter readings, UFE observations, and next steps/questions.

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SDAWG Hurricane Ike Update

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  1. SDAWG Hurricane Ike Update ERCOT Calvin Opheim January 19, 2009

  2. Outline • Review Key Points • Adjusted Coast Load Profiles and Timeframe • Restoration Market Notices • Estimated Meter Readings and Timeframe • UFE Observations • Next Steps / Questions

  3. UFE Summary for 9/13/08 – 9/28/08 • Key Points • Initial Settlements for 9/13/08 – 9/18/08 used “original” Coast Load Profiles • Final Settlements for 9/13/08 – 9/18/08 used “adjusted” Coast Load Profiles • Resulted in significant changes in energy between Initial and Final Settlements • Initial Settlements for 9/19/08 – 9/28/08 used “adjusted” Coast Load Profiles • Adjusted profiles based on CenterPoint’s Restoration Market Notices • Used the % of customers restored to “adjust” the Coast Load Profiles

  4. UFE Summary for 10/1/08 – 11/9/08 • Key Points • CenterPoint began reading meters on 10/13/08 • Usage readings until 10/13/08 were estimated • Would take around one month to have all meters read (from 10/13/08 to approximately 11/13/08) • UFE looks positive from mid-September through early October for Final Settlements • May indicate that the estimated readings were understating actual energy usage • UFE becomes negative from early October through early November for Final Settlements • May indicate that when the actual readings were retrieved, more energy was allocated to the October timeframe than what actually occurred to compensate for low estimated reading from prior billing month

  5. UFE Summary Plots8/1/08 – 11/9/08

  6. Daily Total UFE (MWh) for Initial Settlement8/1/08 through 11/9/08

  7. Daily Average % UFE for Initial Settlement 8/1/08 through 11/9/08

  8. Daily Total UFE (MWh) for Final Settlement 8/1/08 through 11/9/08

  9. Daily Average % UFE for Final Settlement 8/1/08 through 11/9/08

  10. Daily Total UFE (MWh) Comparison for Initial and Final Settlement 8/1/08 through 11/9/08

  11. Daily Average % UFE Comparison for Initial and Final Settlement 8/1/08 through 11/9/08

  12. Daily Average % UFE for Final Settlement 1/1/08 through 11/9/08

  13. UFE Summary Plots9/13/08

  14. 9/13/08 • Summary for 9/13/08 • After Hurricane Ike • Initial Settlement used original Coast Load Profiles • Final Settlement used “adjusted” Coast Load Profiles • Significant Difference in Energy between Initial and Final Settlement

  15. 15-Minute % UFE for 9/13/08 Initial Settlement

  16. 15-Minute % UFE for 9/13/08 Final Settlement

  17. Comparison of 15-Minute % UFE for 9/13/08 Initial and Final Settlement

  18. UFE Summary Plots9/19

  19. UFE Summary Plots • Summary for 9/19 • After Hurricane Ike • Initial and Final Settlement used “adjusted” Coast Load Profiles • Initial Settlement had a Significant Reduction in UFE • Final Settlement had Positive UFE while Initial Settlement had Negative UFE

  20. 15-Minute % UFE for 9/19/08 Initial Settlement

  21. 15-Minute % UFE for 9/19/08 Final Settlement

  22. Comparison of 15-Minute % UFE for 9/19/08 Initial and Final Settlement

  23. UFE Summary Plots10/14

  24. UFE Summary Plots • Summary for 10/14 • After Hurricane Ike • Initial and Final Settlement used original Coast Load Profiles • Final Settlement had Positive UFE while Initial Settlement had Negative UFE

  25. 15-Minute % UFE for 10/14/08 Initial Settlement

  26. 15-Minute % UFE for 10/14/08 Final Settlement

  27. Comparison of 15-Minute % UFE for 10/14/08 Initial and Final Settlement

  28. UFE Summary Plots11/9

  29. UFE Summary Plots • Summary for 11/9 • After Hurricane Ike • Initial and Final Settlement used original Coast Load Profiles • Final Settlement UFE appears to be returning to “normal” levels

  30. 15-Minute % UFE for 11/9/08 Initial Settlement

  31. 15-Minute % UFE for 11/9/08 Final Settlement

  32. Comparison of 15-Minute % UFE for 11/9/08 Initial and Final Settlement

  33. General Observations • Final Settlements UFE Analysis • It appears that the estimated usage readings are somewhat low for September/October timeframe • Reflected as a positive bias in UFE • It appears that when actual readings were retrieved, more usage was allocated to the October/November timeframe than what actually was used • Reflected as a negative bias in UFE

  34. General Observations • These observations are not meant to be critical of TDSP’s usage estimation process • During a restoration emergency, usage estimation is not the top priority • CenterPoint reviewed their usage estimation process with ERCOT and at PWG and it seemed reasonable • Hindsight is 20/20

  35. Next Steps / Questions ON OFF

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